He doesn’t have an X account. He’s not on Facebook. Nobody knows where he lives or what kind of life he leads. In fact, people don’t have a clue who he is. “I’ve never heard of him,” says a bakery worker in Bauta, a municipality west of Havana. “No idea who he is,” a housewife from Pinar del Río shrugs, when asked if she knows Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, the great-nephew of Fidel and Raúl Castro. According to several analysts, he could play the same role in Cuba as Delcy Rodríguez did in Venezuela. He’s a technocrat who has the qualifications to become president of Cuba in the event of negotiations with Washington. And his low profile is a good sign for the survival strategy of the Castro dynasty, should they decide to back him.

Pérez-Oliva Fraga is a 54-year-old electronics engineer. In recent months, he has risen rapidly through the ranks of Havana’s power structure. There are several reasons why some experts consider him to be a political pawn amidst the current tensions. Firstly, he’s the son of Mirsa Fraga Castro and the grandson of Ángela Castro, the older sister of Fidel and Raúl. He possesses – almost compressed into his very being – the physical traits of his surname: well-defined, somewhat severe features, small eyes, as well as a warlike air. He lacks, however, the charisma that someone like Fidel possessed.

Sergio López Rivero – a professor of Cuban history who has studied the historical process of Castroism – believes that the man “lacks the connection with the masses that populist leaders require, [as well as] the mythical [presence] that originally surrounded his ancestors.”

That being said, he does possess other attributes that make him a candidate: he’s relatively young (compared to the aging leaders in Havana) and his name isn’t one that many associate with the Cuban government’s hardline policies, likely because he comes from the economic sector. He has experience leading the trading company Maquimport – which imports machinery – and working on projects in the Mariel Special Development Zone. Currently, he holds the positions of deputy prime minister of the Republic of Cuba and minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment, which directly connects him to the economic and military structure of the Armed Forces Business Enterprises Group (GAESA). According to comments made by Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz some time ago, he’s “a well-prepared individual who has all the qualities to assume the new tasks assigned to him.” Clearly, he enjoys the approval of the regime.

According to Rivero, it’s still “risky to predict a replacement [for President Miguel Díaz-Canel], given the authoritarian logic and the evident leadership crisis of the Cuban regime.” However, he notes, Pérez-Oliva Fraga has risen to a key position that could lead him to the post. At the end of last year, he was appointed as a deputy to the National Assembly of People’s Power. “This is the necessary step for him to assume the presidency of the island, according to current legislation,” Rivero points out.

From the beginning of the Cuban Revolution, Fidel Castro was the figure who held absolute power in the country. First, starting in 1959, he was prime minister. Then, after his official appointment on December 3, 1976, he became the president. It wasn’t until 2006 that, faced with his declining health, Raúl assumed leadership of Cuba. Two years later, Fidel formally “resigned” from his position as president of the Council of State and as commander-in-chief, but not before ensuring that power remained in the hands of the family dynasty.

Afterward, there was a significant leap, to April 19, 2018: in a symbolic photograph, Raúl, 86, is seen grasping the hand of the then-vice president of the Council of State, Miguel Díaz-Canel, (almost 30 years his junior), thus declaring him the next president of the island.

For nearly seven decades, the position has been passed from hand to hand. “These three figures have exercised power without a direct vote from society, but rather via a ratification vote of their candidacies by the [National Assembly],” says Dr. Carlos M. Rodríguez Arechavaleta, a political scientist specializing in the institutional history of the Cuban republic, political transitions and democratization.

Giving the vote back to the people

The capture of Nicolás Maduro has led to threats of a political squeeze on Havana by Washington. Since the operation, some have wondered who would be in a position to engage in dialogue with the Trump administration.

Alejandro Castro Espín – a colonel in the Interior Ministry, former head of Cuban counterintelligence and Raúl Castro’s only son – is believed to be leading the alleged negotiations with the Americans in Mexico, despite Cuba’s denial of such talks. However, other candidates are considered more suitable for the position.

In addition to Pérez-Oliva Fraga, several experts consulted by EL PAÍS mentioned various prominent figures in Cuban politics, such as Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, or Roberto Morales Ojeda, secretary of Organization of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC). No one sees female leadership as being possible in a country where men have historically dominated high-ranking positions. Sergio Ángel Baquero – a professor and researcher with the Cuba Program at Sergio Arboleda University, in Bogotá, Colombia – believes that the aforementioned individuals “have been very close to Díaz-Canel’s current model of government and could hardly represent any kind of change.” He asserts that “they would maintain the logic of continuity” of Castroism.

The 2019 Constitution of the Republic of Cuba established a two-term limit. The text stipulates that the president must be a Cuban citizen who is at least 35 years old and that they must have previously been elected to the National Assembly of People’s Power. The president must also receive votes from the members of that Assembly to assume office. “It’s not a direct vote by the people, but an indirect one, and it must be by an absolute majority. That is, more than 50%,” the researcher says. The person holding the office must also be a member of the PCC, which is the only political party in the country.

Arechavaleta, for his part, insists that “the election of the president depends little on the preferences of the average citizen. Rather, it’s a top-down ‘election,’ based on criteria of ideological loyalty and the regime’s continuity.”

Amid this uncertain situation, Cuba’s leadership has been discredited. Its limited capabilities – as well as the disadvantages of the aging core group that has governed for years – have become evident. Experts continue to highlight Pérez-Oliva Fraga as an emerging figure amidst a leadership vacuum. Baquero believes that he “could even represent a transformation,” due to “his more business-oriented profile.” This is in a context, he emphasizes, where a “profound economic transformation” is necessary.

Previously, the government was positioning General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja – Raúl Castro’s former son-in-law and head of the military conglomerate GAESA – for the position. But in 2022, he died suddenly, at the age of 62.

“I believe that Pérez-Oliva Fraga’s technocratic background and experience in trade diplomacy [mean that he has] firsthand knowledge of the new geopolitical dynamics and the rules governing foreign trade and investment,” Arechavaleta opines. “[This] could lead him toward a reformist stance, in the face of the rigid structure of the Cuban regime’s leadership.” The academic maintains that Cubans “know very little about his political profile, which, I believe, is only just beginning to develop.”

Despite President Trump’s assertion that this is the last year of the Cuban dictatorship, Washington’s plans for Havana – beyond the economic embargo – remain unknown. Experts believe that “Trump’s governing style inevitably leads to coerced negotiations,” which his administration has advocated in favor of since cutting off fuel supplies that were going from Venezuela to Cuba.

“In this context,” Baquero argues, “perhaps the question isn’t whether there are other figures in Cuba, but rather what forms of transformation might emerge, or what kind of openings could occur in this new scenario.”

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U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking from Venezuela, has announced an investment of over $100 million to overhaul a plant run by the multinational oil giant Chevron, one of the few U.S. companies with a strong presence in the country. “They’re on target to double production in that particular field in the next 12 to 18 months and probably quintuple it over the next five years,” said the Trump administration official at Petropiar, an oil processing plant operated by Chevron and the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA.

Wright concluded his last day of work in Venezuela with a visit to oil fields and further meetings with Venezuelan authorities. The visit promises to be the first of several more in the future, as Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez indicated.

The primary objective of Wright’s visit, as he himself has stated, is to promote economic thaw and expand U.S. influence in the local energy sector, without neglecting the political implications. The official, who has repeatedly praised both nations in his official speeches, spoke about Washington’s plans to lift Venezuela out of its current state of impoverishment.

Wright, who has stated that this year could see a “dramatic” increase in oil, gas and electricity levels in the country, visited the oil fields operated by the joint Chevron-PDVSA ventures Petroindependencia and Petropiar in the Orinoco Belt, in the southeast of the country, which has the world’s largest extra-heavy crude oil deposits.

In the late 1990s, Venezuela was producing three million barrels of oil per day and was one of the seven nations with the highest volume of crude oil exports in the world. Local oil production began to decline steadily during the Hugo Chávez years, a period marked by the politicization of objectives and rampant corruption. Today, after 12 years with Nicolás Maduro in power, the country barely produces one million barrels per day. Rebuilding the local oil infrastructure and returning Venezuela to its former production levels, experts say, will require billions of dollars and many years — even more than Wright himself is announcing.

The agreements imposed on Caracas by the Trump administration and the issuance of new production licenses to international companies and contractors, which also benefit PDVSA and national capital, could put local oil production at 1.3 million barrels by the end of this year, according to experts such as the economist Orlando Ochoa.

“With the investments that Chevron, Maurel and Prom, and Repsol plan to make, along with the improvements PDVSA will undergo and the licenses granted to these and other companies, oil production will increase, but not as quickly as some believe. More than 300,000 barrels per day this year is impossible. If these agreements are finalized and everything goes well, production will reach approximately 500,000 barrels per day in two years, which would be an ideal scenario,” says Ochoa.

“The U.S. Secretary of Energy’s agenda with Venezuela has a very clear geopolitical orientation. Political issues come first, followed by technical and oil-related discussions,” says Rafael Quirós, a petroleum economist and professor at the Central University of Venezuela. Quirós believes Wright intends to increase U.S. personnel in the oil fields and sideline China, Russia, and Iran — geopolitical allies of the Bolivarian Revolution — from areas of influence in Venezuelan politics and the economy.

Venezuelan state television has been broadcasting continuous reports highlighting a “win-win” agreement between the two nations. The reports emphasize the historical development of relations between the two countries and promise enormous economic benefits.

“Tax revenues will increase, production will rise,” says Quirós. “It will be hard work, it won’t be easy at all. These investments will be a huge help,” he says, “but it’s important to understand that all the country’s development plans, and its growth expectations, cannot be fully implemented if this isn’t accompanied by political change and Venezuela’s return to the international financial community.”

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En su primera entrevista a un medio internacional desde que asumio el cargo, la presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, lanzó una advertencia a la opositora María Corina Machado. “Con respecto a su vida, no entiendo por qué hay tanto revuelo”, dijo Rodríguez a la NBC, en una entrevista que se emitirá la tarde de este jueves. “En cuanto a su regreso al país, tendrá que responder ante Venezuela. ¿Por qué pidió una intervención militar? ¿Por qué pidió sanciones contra Venezuela y por qué celebró las acciones que tuvieron lugar a principios de enero?”, remarcó.

Machado, que lleva unas semanas en Estados Unidos después de recibir su premio Nobel de la Paz en Noruega a principios de diciembre, ha manifestado su voluntad de volver a Venezuela, pero sin marcar plazos. Las declaraciones de Rodríguez siembran dudas sobre su seguridad en el país si decide regresar.

Rodríguez también habló de la posibilidad de ir a Estados Unidos, convirtiéndose en la primera líder chavista en hacer una visita oficial a Washington en casi 30 años. “He sido invitada a Estados Unidos”, dijo Rodríguez a NBC News. “Estamos contemplando ir una vez que establezcamos la cooperación y podamos avanzar con todo”, señaló Rodríguez este miércoles, el mismo día que recibió en Caracas al secretario de Energía de Estados Unidos, Chris Wright.

Rodríguez además defendió la legitimidad de Nicolás Maduro como presidente de Venezuela, a pesar de que las actas electorales de julio de 2024 mostraron una arrolladora victoria de Edmundo González, el candidato de María Corina Machado. Maduro, así como su esposa Cilia Flores, aguarda ahora un juicio en Nueva York por delitos relacionados con el narcotráfico. “Puedo decirte esto como abogada, que lo soy. El presidente Maduro y Cilia Flores, la primera dama, son inocentes”, aseveró.

Esta es la segunda entrevista que el chavismo ha concedido a medios estadounidenses. La primera la hizo el hermano de la presidenta y dirigente de la Asamblea Nacional, Jorge Rodríguez, a la cadena Newmax. Estas entrevistas se interpretan como concesiones, pues la inmensa mayoría de periodistas extranjeros tienen vetada la entrada al país.