Will summer travel be affected by a fuel shortage? Credit: trattieritratti Shutterstock
Restrictions on refuelling began this weekend at four major Italian airports, including Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso and Venice. Authorities introduced the measures due to limited availability from one key supplier linked to broader supply problems from the ongoing conflict in Iran. Notices remain in force until around April 9, with priority reserved for medical emergencies, government flights exceeding three hours and certain longer routes. Shorter domestic or regional services face potential caps, such as maximum loads around 2,000 litres in some cases.
Airport operator Save, which manages Venice, Treviso and nearby sites, downplayed immediate disruption. Officials noted multiple suppliers operate out of these locations, so most airlines continue without widespread issues. No limits apply to intercontinental services or Schengen-area flights so far, and daily operations continue largely as normal for the busy Easter period.
Ryanair flags growing risks ahead
Budget carrier Ryanair warned of potential worsening if tensions persist around the Strait of Hormuz. Chief executive Michael O’Leary explained that a quick end to hostilities and the reopening of the key waterway by mid or late April would avoid major problems. Prolonged closure, however, could affect 10 to 25 per cent of fuel supplies for European carriers between May and June. However, many more cynical suspect, given O’Leary’s vocal history, that there may be an element of pressuring the public into buying flights earlier. But, if he’s right, airlines might then need to trim schedules or cancel flights at constrained airports to manage resources.
European airlines hold some protection through hedging
Many carriers entered the crisis with substantial fuel hedging in place, covering roughly 80 per cent of 2026 requirements at pre-crisis prices. Ryanair has taken a particularly strong position, while others such as IAG maintained 60 to 70 per cent coverage. These arrangements shield against immediate price rises which have seen jet fuel costs roughly double in affected markets. Physical availability remains the greater long-term concern once existing stocks and last pre-crisis shipments deplete around mid-April.
Europe benefits from diversified sourcing compared with Asia, where rationing and cancellations are already occurring, giving us images on news sources of huge queues at petrol stations. Strategic reserves and EU coordination offer additional buffers, delaying acute shortages. Mediterranean countries and the UK, more reliant on Gulf-origin fuel, face higher exposure than northern hubs.
Assessing risks to summer travel plans
Moderate concern exists for peak summer holidays if the Hormuz disruption continues beyond April. Stocks should cover April needs in most areas, yet May and June could see localised shortages at import-heavy airports. Leisure routes operated by low-cost carriers might experience reductions or higher fares as operators adjust capacity. Flexible booking options provide sensible protection against last-minute changes.
Higher ticket prices already appear across many routes as airlines pass on elevated costs, which typically represent 20 to 30 per cent of operating expenses. Full-scale rationing stays off the immediate agenda according to EU officials, who are monitoring developments closely and preparing contingency measures without triggering alarm. Rerouting, alternative sourcing from the Atlantic basin or West Africa, and voluntary efficiency gains will help mitigate pressures in the short term.
Spain faces notable but not extreme vulnerability
Spain sources a meaningful portion of its aviation fuel from Gulf refineries, though exact figures vary by month and fluctuate with market conditions. Recent data highlight Kuwait and other Middle Eastern providers contributing to kerosene imports together with diversified sources from the United States, Algeria, and European neighbours. While Spain maintains strong renewable energy capacity and gas links with Algeria that help buffer overall energy needs, jet fuel remains more exposed because of limited quick substitutes and the global nature of refined product flows.
Should holidaymakers worry?
Travellers should check airline updates regularly and consider policies allowing free changes or refunds. While widespread collapse of air travel looks highly unlikely, the situation will stay fluid and depends heavily on diplomatic or military progress in the Middle East. Booking with flexibility built in offers peace of mind without cancelling plans prematurely.
