A shadow has been cast over the offices, barracks, embassies and cafés of Caracas and also of Washington since January 3. It is the shadow of a man many fear. The future of the new Venezuela is in his hands; whether or not the country descends into chaos rests on his shoulders.

Diosdado Cabello is a military man who represents Chavismo at its most radical. He is also at the center of this unprecedented period in which the regime dialogues with Washington. All eyes are on him, some more skeptical than others. For some, he is the greatest threat to the leadership of the new president, Delcy Rodríguez, the actor capable of blowing up the current fragile balance at any moment. For others, he is the silent guarantee that this unexpected turn of events would not have happened without his consent. Diosdado, nicknamed for a time “Diostodo” — the Almighty — could be both.

For two weeks, analysts, diplomats, intelligence services and Venezuelans themselves have been trying to work out what is going through Cabello’s head when he appears at public events with Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge, the new leaders of a Maduro-free Venezuela. His control over the security apparatus and armed militias is fueling fears in Washington that he could become unpredictable and jeopardize transition plans, Reuters has reported. “It is very clear that he can’t survive without the consent of the Americans,” a source close to the Venezuelan government said. “He is already reforming the Armed Forces, laying off personnel and appointing new officers.”

Cabello has demonstrated a strong survival instinct over the years and a cast-iron loyalty to the revolution, as long as that loyalty does not cost him power. Although he has never appeared to covet the presidency, he is considered the last guardian of Chavismo, the final line of defense of the Bolivarian revolution at its most radical. He is the most militaristic of Venezuelan politicians, with historical ties to military commanders, political police, and the feared groups of armed civilians that function as eyes for the regime.

Obsessed with the figure of Hugo Chávez and with the revolution, his discourse has been marked by contempt for democracy and the middle classes. According to several sources consulted, Cabello embodies the orthodoxy of Chavismo and if Delcy Rodríguez moves too quickly in the opposite direction, things could get ugly.

The intervention of the U.S. in Venezuela, with the declared goal of gaining access to the largest oil reserves in the world, has been a profound blow to Chavismo, both for its radical and more pragmatic wings. While Rodríguez is appearing to move quickly to open spaces for dialogue, Cabello’s shadow is a constant. “The two have very different sensibilities,” explain those who know them. Maduro balanced out the two, but Maduro is no longer there. Among observers of Chavismo, there is a shared conviction: if Cabello does not agree with something, it can’t be done. “Probably many of the things that are happening would not happen so quickly without Diosdado,” said opposition leader Iván Stalin González in an interview with EL PAÍS.

For more than a decade, Cabello has been one of the centerpieces of Chavista power. He was president of the National Assembly, number two in the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and the main organizer of its territorial machinery. Every week he hosts a TV program, broadcast on state television, which he has used to mark the regime’s hard line for years with denunciations and warnings aimed at both the opposition and dissidents within the party.

The program was used as a mechanism of political discipline and a Chavismo showcase, reinforcing the image of Cabello as the man guarding the ideological framework of the revolution. On TV, he has called Americans “sheep” and, recently, threatened María Corina Machado indirectly in the midst of escalating tensions with Washington. “At this point, everyone should be clear that, if they squeeze us, we squeeze them,” he warned.

Since Maduro’s capture, Cabello’s role has been interpreted as an uneasy fit. Sources in Venezuela maintain that the gestures of openness presented by the regime — such as the release of hundreds of political prisoners — would have been impossible without his approval. At the same time, those familiar with the negotiations suggest he poses the greatest resistance over who to release.

Cabello wants to set limits, they say. Rodríguez is moving quickly on an agenda of greater openness with nods to diplomacy, prisoner releases and reforms, and also appointments, according to loyalties. Among the new names emerging is Major General Gustavo Gonzalez, 65, who will head Venezuela’s feared DGCIM, Chavismo’s military counterintelligence agency. The appointment has been interpreted as a “tactic” by Rodríguez to counter Cabello’s power, according to Reuters.

Despite his ideology, Donald Trump has decided to rely on Cabello. According to Reuters, the interior minister was engaged in secret talks with U.S. officials in the months leading up to the operation that ended with Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, imprisoned in New York. Trump’s emissaries warned Cabello, 62, not to use the security services or ruling party militants under his supervision to repress the opposition. Accused by the U.S. of drug trafficking and with a reward of $25 million on his head, Cabello is nonetheless useful to Washington. For now, it seems he will continue to be one of the central figures in Venezuela.

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El cambio de mando en el chavismo, forzado por el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, ha propiciado una reunión inusual. El director de la CIA, John Ratcliffe, se reunió este jueves en Caracas con la presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, según reveló The New York Times. De acuerdo con fuentes del diario estadounidense, en el encuentro se abordaron “posibles oportunidades de colaboración económica” y se subrayó que Venezuela ya no puede ser un refugio seguro para los adversarios de Estados Unidos, especialmente para los narcotraficantes.

La visita del jefe de la agencia de inteligencia estadounidense coincidió con la presentación, por parte de Rodríguez, de la memoria de gestión del presidente Nicolás Maduro, detenido en Nueva York tras la intervención del ejército de Estados Unidos del pasado 3 de enero, ante la Asamblea Nacional y, casi al mismo tiempo, con la entrega por parte de la líder opositora María Corina Machado de su medalla del Premio Nobel de la Paz a Trump en la Casa Blanca.

Tras la captura de Maduro y su esposa, Cilia Flores, durante una intervención militar de fuerzas especiales de Estados Unidos, Trump ha afianzado su control sobre Venezuela, en particular sobre su producción petrolera. Su objetivo es ampliar la participación de más empresas estadounidenses como parte de un acuerdo con la nueva presidenta. Meses atrás, cuando un amplio despliegue militar amenazaba al chavismo desde el mar Caribe, sus líderes advertían de que, ante un ataque, “ni una sola gota de petróleo” saldría de Venezuela con destino a Estados Unidos.

La CIA ha sido clave en la transferencia de poder en Venezuela. La decisión política de la Administración Trump de respaldar a Rodríguez en lugar de a Machado se basó en un análisis clasificado de la agencia, que alertaba sobre la inestabilidad que podría provocar la llegada de Machado a la presidencia en este momento, según han publicado medios estadounidenses. Los informes de inteligencia sostenían que la líder opositora, pese al importante respaldo popular obtenido en las elecciones de 2024, tendría dificultades para controlar el Gobierno y las Fuerzas Armadas tras casi tres décadas de revolución chavista.

La operación que condujo a la captura de Maduro y su esposa también estuvo precedida por meses de trabajo de la agencia. Trump autorizó operaciones encubiertas en Venezuela y, desde agosto, la CIA había desplegado discretamente un pequeño equipo para rastrear los patrones, ubicaciones y movimientos de Maduro, lo que facilitó la intervención a comienzos de este mes, según CNN. Así lograron identificar a un informante dentro del Gobierno que permitió seguir al líder chavista hasta su captura, en la madrugada del 3 de enero, en una de sus residencias en Fuerte Tiuna.

Durante años, la CIA fue el gran enemigo declarado del chavismo, que convirtió la lucha contra el intervencionismo estadounidense en una de sus principales banderas. Esa desconfianza llevó a Hugo Chávez, en 2005, a romper la cooperación antidroga con Estados Unidos y a expulsar a la DEA, bajo el argumento de que realizaba labores de espionaje contra su Gobierno. También reforzó los servicios de inteligencia con apoyo de Cuba. La seguridad de Maduro quedó en manos de agentes cubanos, que terminaron asesinados durante la intervención militar estadounidense. El alto mando que ahora dirige la revolución bolivariana ha dado un giro radical a esa postura.

La semana pasada se produjo la visita del encargado de negocios de Estados Unidos para Venezuela, John McNamara, la primera en siete años de relaciones diplomáticas rotas. El diplomático llegó con la misión de evaluar las condiciones para una eventual reapertura de la embajada. Este viernes, dos días después de la llamada entre Trump y Rodríguez y tras la visita de Ratcliffe, se reactivaron los vuelos con migrantes venezolanos deportados desde Estados Unidos. Un avión estadounidense partió de Phoenix con 199 retornados y aterrizó al mediodía en Maiquetía.

Durante 2025, pese a las tensiones, Venezuela y Estados Unidos mantuvieron dos vuelos semanales de repatriación, uno de los principales intereses de Trump. En total, se han concretado cerca de 100 vuelos con deportados; el último antes de esta reactivación había tenido lugar a principios de diciembre.

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has insisted that her movement will play a role in Venezuela’s future, and that after an “orderly transition,” her country “will be the best ally the United States has ever had.” Regarding the United States’ support for continuity in Venezuela, as represented by interim president Delcy Rodríguez, Macahdo argued that “it’s not a choice between her and me, but between the cartel and justice. I am just one person within a larger movement.”

The politician and activist — who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize —appeared before the Washington press on Friday at the headquarters of the ultra‑conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, the day after her meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House — a highly anticipated event that the U.S. government tried to keep low‑profile and that left more questions than answers.

The opposition leader — who has expressed her intention to return to Venezuela as soon as possible — asserted that she has the “unwavering” support of the United States for her country. “Venezuela will be free, let no one doubt it, and that will be thanks to President Donald Trump. If anything has united the people of the United States, it is Venezuela.” She downplayed Washington’s support for Rodríguez’s continued leadership, arguing that she “is only following orders.”

Rodríguez is “not comfortable” in her current role, said Machado. “There are things Rodríguez can give up, because she is terrified of President Trump. But others she will never be able to achieve: trust, the rule of law, reconciliation, citizen participation, and support. Therefore, this is not sustainable, and she knows it.”

Machado’s decision to gift Trump her Nobel Peace Prize medal, which she received in Oslo last December — a move that has sparked outrage among the Norwegian organizers of the award — overshadowed her meeting with Trump. After the meeting, it was clear that the president had succeeded in acquiring a medal he coveted — not the prize itself, which is non-transferable. Far less clear was what Machado had achieved: while the two spoke for two hours in the Oval Office and the adjoining dining room, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt essentially stated that “realities on the ground” meant that Trump would continue supporting Delcy Rodríguez to lead Venezuela, not the Nobel laureate.

“I didn’t come here looking for anything for myself,” Machado explained at her press conference, when asked what she had gained from her conversation at the White House. “I came representing the people of Venezuela, who gave us a mandate [in the 2023 opposition primaries and the 2024 presidential elections]. I came to receive the message that we have the support of the United States for a very complex process.” A complex process where, she admitted, “there may be things we didn’t expect, or that we don’t like.”

The opposition leader declined to reveal the content of her conversation with Trump, calling it “a private conversation.” However, she did share her feelings about the meeting: “I felt enormous respect for the people of Venezuela when I entered the Oval Office. We discussed all the issues with great respect, but also with honesty and frankness. I was struck by the concern he conveyed about the situation of Venezuelans: the young people, the children, the families, the healthcare system. I was able to have a conversation with a human being. I left truly convinced that what we need is in the White House and will serve as an example for other world leaders.”

Machado also emphasized that “this is a process we are part of and to which we are contributing.” “We are prepared to do whatever is necessary, as the legitimate government, at this stage. We have a great deal of work ahead of us: preparing our teams around the world and in Venezuela to take charge of the government when the time comes.”

The meeting at the White House took place a day after the Republican spoke by phone with Rodríguez, who he described as a “terrific person.” Rodríguez has been in charge of Venezuela after a U.S. military operation captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Both face charges of narcoterrorism and trafficking of cocaine and weapons.

The meeting between Trump and Machado — which she had worked tirelessly to secure in recent days — also took place as the White House spokesperson briefed reporters in the same venue, saying that the U.S. president has not changed his view of Machado’s ability to lead the transition (“she doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country,” Trump said on the day of Maduro’s capture), and again praising Rodríguez’s willingness to cooperate. According to Trump, the interim president is working “very well” with Washington, as it oversees South American country — and keeps a close eye on its vast oil reserves.

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