The shadow of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) looms over the assassination of Carlos Manzo, the mayor of the Mexican city of Uruapan, in Michoacán, who was shot dead on Saturday during Day of the Dead celebrations. According to sources familiar with the investigation, the attack had been ordered by the cartel, which had suffered a major blow in August when the mayor’s local police captured its leader, René Belmonte, alias Rino, during an operation.

A source close to Manzo, consulted by EL PAÍS and knowledgeable about regional politics, explained that Rino was a subordinate of the Álvarez Ayala brothers, Ramón and Rafael — known as R-1 and R-2 — who occupy some of the highest ranks within the CJNG and are also linked to past Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) governments in the state.

Another source consulted by the newspaper — well-acquainted with Michoacán’s political reality and the violence afflicting the region — confirmed that the gunman, a young man between 17 and 19 years old who was killed immediately after shooting Manzo, was connected to the CJNG. The weapon used, the source said, had been employed in other crimes linked to the criminal group. The same source added that within the federal government, led by Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party, there is growing discontent with Michoacán’s governor, Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla (also from Morena), over the state’s deteriorating security situation, which is attributed at least in part to his failure to address the region’s ongoing conflicts

The situation in Uruapan — one of Michoacán’s most important municipalities, home to 350,000 residents and the heart of the region’s avocado industry — has worsened in recent months. The source cited earlier says that El Rino oversaw the CJNG’s extortion network in the area, which mainly targeted small and mid-sized farmers who couldn’t afford private security, unlike the larger producers in the region. “All the violence erupted after this man’s arrest. He’s a highly dangerous individual,” the source explained.

Manzo himself requested support from both the federal and state governments following the capture of the alleged criminal. In fact, on the very day of the arrest, August 27, he posted a video on his social media accounts urging residents to stay home, warning that gunmen from the group were preparing to enter the municipality. In the weeks that followed, violence in Uruapan escalated, including attacks on local police officers. After a police officer was killed on August 14, Manzo met with state authorities to seek help in tackling organized crime.

The second source consulted by EL PAÍS said that the federal government has done its part, deploying a large number of security forces across Michoacán — one of the states receiving the most federal support. However, the governor “is distracted,” the source added. While official data from the federal Security Secretariat shows that homicide numbers in Michoacán have been trending downward, Sheinbaum’s administration sees stagnation. Unlike other governors who have made public security a top priority and personally attend the daily cabinet meetings devoted to the issue, Ramírez Bedolla “lacks commitment,” the source said, adding that the governor has been more occupied with personal matters and travel than with addressing violence in the state.

A clear example of this is the way the gunman managed to breach the security perimeter surrounding Manzo. Although his security detail included more members of the National Guard than local police, coordination of the team fell to the state government. “Federal forces are the second line of defense — the governor should always be the central link,” the source emphasized. Another factor that contributed to the killing, the source explained, is the profile of the officials the governor has appointed to oversee state security. Since Ramírez Bedolla took office in October 2021, there have been numerous changes in the Ministries of Government, Public Security, and the Attorney General’s Office in short periods of time.

As for the gunman, he embarked on a mission in which survival was virtually impossible. “It was a situation where you either get caught or you die — there’s no other outcome, and you know it,” the source said. Despite the hitman’s young age, he was not believed to be inexperienced, as breaching Manzo’s security during such a crowded public event required careful surveillance and precise timing.

The assassin’s ties to the CJNG faction run by the Álvarez Ayala brothers illustrate the deep-rooted ills of regional politics. Another brother, Roldán, served as mayor of Apatzingán just over 20 years ago with the leftist PRD, now virtually defunct. The politician was close to former governors Leonel Godoy (PRD, now in Morena) and Lázaro Cárdenas (also formerly of the PRD and now a member of Morena). In recent years, Roldán, who has faced extortion charges, sought a federal congressional nomination under Morena but ultimately failed to secure it.

The legal proceedings against the CJNG brothers Ramón and Rafael further expose the weaknesses of Mexico’s justice system. Arrested in 2012 and convicted four years later, the elder brother became a topic at one of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s morning press conferences in 2022. At the time, deputy security minister Ricardo Mejía revealed that R-1 had managed to evade five criminal cases thanks to rulings by different judges. As a result of those court decisions, R-1 was released — a move that drew strong criticism from López Obrador himself.

The outlook for Uruapan remains bleak. The federal government assumes that Manzo’s widow, Grecia Quiroz, will take over as interim mayor. Her appointment is viewed as crucial to stabilizing city operations and defusing public anger following the assassination. One of Manzo’s brothers, Juan Manzo, currently serves as secretary of government under Governor Ramírez Bedolla, a role that could complicate his path to leading Uruapan, as such a move would signal a fracture within the governor’s own inner circle.

According to sources consulted by EL PAÍS, beyond the legitimate public outrage, representatives from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and National Action Party (PAN) have been involved in fueling the protests, aiming to destabilize both Ramírez Bedolla and Sheinbaum.

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