Storm Francis is officially named by Aemet as part of the 2025–2026 Atlantic storm season. Credit : X – Aemet
Just as Spain begins to catch its breath after days of heavy rain and disruption, the calm is already starting to feel deceptive. The skies may be clearer, the air colder and the atmosphere quieter, but meteorologists are warning that it won’t stay that way for long.
According to Spain’s state weather agency Aemet, a new Atlantic storm named Francis is lining up to make an entrance around New Year’s Day, bringing a fresh round of rain, strong winds and sharply changing conditions. And while the worst of it isn’t expected to arrive immediately, the timing could hardly be less convenient.
After all, New Year’s Eve is not just another date on the calendar in Spain. It’s a night of long dinners, late travel, family gatherings and packed roads. And the weather, as it often does, is about to insert itself into the plans.
From floods to frost – a sharp change of mood
The past few days have already shown how quickly conditions can turn. Over the weekend, intense rainfall battered parts of eastern and southern Spain, leaving behind flooded roads and emergency callouts.
In Carcaixent, Valencia, nearly 180 litres per square metre were recorded, with the majority falling in just six hours. Abanilla, in Murcia, saw 85 litres, most of it in a single hour. Meanwhile, Marbella recorded 77 litres in less than six hours – the kind of concentrated rainfall that overwhelms drainage systems almost instantly.
Then, almost abruptly, the weather shifted gears.
Since Tuesday, December 30, a strong anticyclone has settled over much of the country, bringing clearer skies and a sharp drop in night-time temperatures. According to Aemet, this quieter phase is expected to last until Friday, marked by stability, sunshine and widespread frost inland.
Clear skies mean heat escapes quickly overnight, and the result has been biting cold mornings across large parts of the interior. In mountainous areas and the northern and central plateau, frost has been widespread, and it isn’t just the cold causing concern.
Fog, ice and difficult driving conditions
With calm winds and cold air trapped near the ground, dense fog has been forming across inland regions, particularly in Castile and León, parts of Galicia, and the northern plateau. In some places, the fog has been slow to lift, lingering well into the day.
In cities like Zamora, Palencia and Valladolid, temperatures have struggled to climb much above 5°C, with fog keeping conditions grey, cold and damp. Where temperatures dip below freezing, this combination can create icy patches on roads, especially at dawn.
Traffic authorities are already warning drivers to take extra care, particularly during the busy New Year travel period. Reduced visibility, black ice and freezing fog can turn routine journeys into risky ones very quickly.
Storm Francis waits its turn
While mainland Spain shivers under clear skies, attention is now shifting west. Storm Francis, an Atlantic low-pressure system, is expected to reach the Canary Islands on Thursday, according to Aemet.
After several relatively calm days, the islands are forecast to see widespread rain, which could become locally heavy and persistent, particularly in Santa Cruz de Tenerife. This will mark the beginning of a broader change in weather patterns.
Unlike the current cold spell, Francis will drag in milder Atlantic air, pushing temperatures upwards and easing frost conditions across much of the country. Snow will be largely confined to higher mountain areas, and widespread freezing is expected to retreat.
But milder doesn’t mean quieter.
Rain, wind and uncertainty as the New Year begins
As the New Year gets underway, the storm is forecast to advance eastwards, sending successive weather fronts across Spain. From Friday onwards, cloud cover is expected to increase across large parts of the country, with mist and fog forming in the mornings, especially over inland regions, before lifting later in the day.
Despite the arrival of milder air, Aemet warns that New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day could still bring below-average temperatures in some interior areas, with overnight lows dropping close to -5°C in places like Soria.
By Friday and into the weekend, Francis is likely to cross the Iberian Peninsula more fully. Meteorologists are watching closely as the storm could create a volatile mix: warm subtropical air colliding with cold polar or Arctic air masses.
That combination has, in the past, produced significant rain and snowfall episodes, and forecasters are cautious about ruling anything out at this stage.
Weather analyst Samuel Biener has warned that exposed parts of the Canary Islands could see more than 50 litres per square metre of rain on New Year’s Day alone. Strong winds are also expected, with gusts potentially reaching 70 km/h in some areas.
Still too early for certainty
Despite the warnings, forecasters stress that uncertainty remains. Small shifts in the storm’s path could change where the heaviest rain falls and how strong the winds become. There is also the possibility of another temperature drop early next week.
Some models suggest that colder air could return around Monday 5 January, raising the chance of snow at relatively low altitudes just ahead of Three Kings’ Day, a date that already sees huge amounts of travel across Spain.
For now, the message from meteorologists is cautious rather than alarmist. Enjoy the current calm, stay alert to updates, and be prepared for plans to change.
As Spain prepares to say goodbye to 2025, the weather looks set to remind everyone who’s really in charge.
Stay tuned with Euro Weekly News for more news from Spain
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