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Polonia Elige En Unas Presidenciales De Resultado Incierto Entre Un Candidato Europeísta Y Un Ultraconservador

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Polonia concluye este domingo un ciclo electoral que se inició en 2023, y que decidirá si culmina su retorno al centro de la Unión Europea o vuelve a alejarse hacia los márgenes, para situarse como un bastión del trumpismo en Europa. El alcalde de Varsovia, el europeísta Rafal Trzaskowski, y el historiador ultranacionalista Karol Nawrocki llegan prácticamente empatados —con una ligerísima ventaja del primero, dentro del margen de error—, a la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales que decidirán el rumbo político de país.

El jefe de Estado no tiene competencias de Gobierno, pero posee un arma fundamental: el poder de veto en el proceso legislativo. Si gana Nawrocki, el candidato avalado por los ultraconservadores de Ley y Justicia (PiS), el primer ministro, el liberal de centroderecha Donald Tusk, puede contar con la paralización definitiva de su agenda reformista. Si Trzaskowski vence en su segundo intento de ser presidente, el primer ministro conseguirá el impulso que lleva esperando desde que volvió al poder al frente de una coalición liberal en diciembre de 2023. Con la popularidad del Ejecutivo en retroceso, Tusk se juega también en estas elecciones su liderazgo, tanto en Polonia como en la UE.

La tasa de participación este domingo va a ser decisiva. A las 17.00 había votado el 54,9% de los 29 millones de electores llamados a las urnas, ligeramente por encima del 52,1% de 2020. En un centro electoral de Varsovia, un empresario de 44 años llamado Karol Weber votó al alcalde a media mañana. Sentado al sol en unas escalinatas del Palacio de la Cultura y la Ciencia, donde una cola avanzaba ligera, explicaba: “[Trzaskowski] Representa la Polonia que quiero: moderna, abierta a gente distinta, a diferentes estilos de vida, aunque me haya criado como católico”. Zbig, un científico jubilado de 65 años que prefería no dar su apellido, también había elegido al aspirante liberal. “Creo firmemente que el Gobierno acelerará los cambios en el país [con Trzaskowski]”, decía.

Pero incluso en el centro de la capital, más liberal, la gigantesca urna guardaba papeletas para Nawrocki. Como la de Kamil, empresario de 41 años, que evocaba su principal razón con ayuda de un traductor online: “No quiero inmigrantes en Polonia”. Zeszek, de 55, le votaba solo “como mal menor”, porque su primera opción era el ultraderechista Slawomir Mentzen, que quedó tercero en la primera vuelta.

Los presidentes polacos desempeñan también un papel activo en política exterior. Trzaskowski, de 53 años y vicepresidente de Plataforma Cívica, la formación de centro-derecha que lidera Tusk, es todo lo europeísta que se puede ser. Durante la campaña electoral, ha insistido en su compromiso con la UE, que ha demostrado durante su carrera política. “Polonia debe ser un líder en la Unión Europea, no un problema. Debemos volver a la mesa donde se toman decisiones, no limitarnos a quejarnos desde fuera”, dijo en un debate presidencial. Wojciech Przybylski, director del centro de análisis Visegrad Insight, afirma que el triunfo del candidato liberal “consolidaría a Europa, con dos victorias, en Rumania y Polonia”. Pero Trzaskowski sería también, asegura el analista, “un gran interlocutor con la Casa Blanca”.

La Administración del republicano Donald Trump ha dejado claro, sin embargo, que preferiría una victoria de Nawrocki. La secretaria de Seguridad Nacional, Kristi Noem, generó un profundo malestar esta semana entre los liberales con unas declaraciones que sonaron a injerencia electoral. Si gana el candidato de PiS, dijo, los polacos podrán contar con Trump como un gran aliado. “Seguirá habiendo presencia militar estadounidense aquí… y tendrán equipos de fabricación estadounidense y de alta calidad”, afirmó en la Conferencia Política de Acción Conservadora (CPAC), que por primera vez se celebró en Polonia.

En ese cónclave ultra, que después se celebró también en Hungría, Nawrocki contó con el apoyo expreso de líderes como Viktor Orbán, el primer ministro húngaro, o George Simion, derrotado en las presidenciales rumanas el 18 de mayo. Para la internacional populista, estas elecciones son tan trascendentales como para los europeístas. “Si Nawrocki no gana en Polonia, Hungría será la siguiente y Viktor Orbán perderá el poder”, auguró Simion. El candidato elegido por PiS asegura que es “partidario” de la UE, “pero de una que respete la soberanía de las naciones y no imponga ideologías”.

La campaña del aspirante ultranacionalista ha estado marcada por varios escándalos que le configuran como una persona con un pasado turbio, violento, con supuestas conexiones con el crimen organizado y la prostitución. A los votantes del exboxeador parece no importarle demasiado. Unos consideran que se trata de una campaña de difamación de los medios liberales. Otros lo ven como un valor: “Así nos protegerá mejor”, decía un joven estos días en Varsovia.

Nawrocki ha adoptado algunos clásicos del trumpismo y de la corriente ultra internacional. Primero, los polacos, dice. En esa priorización en los servicios sociales, de sanidad y educación, recoge no solo un firme rechazo a la inmigración, sino también un creciente sentimiento en la sociedad polaca que cuestiona las ayudas públicas a los refugiados ucranios y que incluso Trzaskowski ha incorporado en su discurso. Pero el candidato ultra ha ido un paso más allá. En su intento de ganarse los votos del partido de extrema derecha Confederación (Konfederacja), que quedó tercero en la primera vuelta y fue el favorito de los jóvenes, se ha comprometido a mantener la puerta de la OTAN cerrada para Kiev.

Con matices, Nawrocki y Trzaskowski —que ha virado a la derecha en campaña, también en busca de votantes más conservadores—, comparten su intención por reforzar la defensa, en el país de la OTAN que más gasta en relación con el PIB. También se oponen al acuerdo migratorio y defienden blindar las fronteras.

En cuestiones sociales las diferencias entre ambos son más evidentes. Nawrocki defiende valores tradicionales cristianos y nacionalistas. El alcalde de Varsovia representa la apertura del país hacia los principios europeos, con la defensa del aborto, de los derechos LGTBI, y del Estado de derecho.

Tarjeta amarilla al Gobierno

Los resultados de la primera vuelta, celebrada el 18 de mayo, hicieron sonar todas las alarmas en el campo liberal. La suma de los votos de los ultraconservadores y la extrema derecha superó con holgura la mayoría. El primer ministro admitió que el Gobierno había recibido una tarjeta amarilla y en una marcha masiva en Varsovia para movilizar al electorado el domingo pasado, se disculpó. El Ejecutivo que lidera —con partidos liberales que van del centro-izquierda a la derecha— apenas ha cumplido una veintena de las 100 promesas que hizo para los primeros 100 días en el poder.

Como dice Przybylski, a la coalición le ha faltado “un proyecto positivo”. “Lo que les unió fue su carácter anti-PiS”, añade. El alcalde de Varsovia se ha comprometido a trabajar para cumplir con los compromisos que garanticen el cambio en Polonia.

Si gana el exboxeador, nadie duda de que bloqueará la acción del Gobierno, que con Andrzej Duda, de PiS, como presidente, todavía no ha conseguido sacar adelante ninguna ley para restaurar el Estado de derecho. Nawrocki, que dirigió el Instituto de Memoria Nacional, “socavaría al Ejecutivo permanentemente; utilizaría el palacio presidencial como centro de operaciones contra Tusk”, afirma Przybylski.

Sería además un primer paso para PiS para comenzar el camino de regreso al poder en las próximas legislativas, en 2027. El partido de Jaroslaw Kaczynski tendría argumentos para deslegitimar al Ejecutivo y presionar para celebrar elecciones anticipadas, un escenario que Tusk ha rechazado. Hasta las nueve de la noche, cuando cierren los centros electorales y se publiquen los primeros sondeos a pie de urna, todo está abierto. El lunes, previsiblemente, se conocerán los resultados oficiales. Para añadir una capa más de incertidumbre a este duelo ajustadísimo, ambos campos han denunciado injerencia electoral, y la amenaza de la impugnación de los resultados electorales planea sobre el ambiente.

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Guantánamo For Europeans? US Deportation Plans

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Possible transfer of European migrants to Guantánamo has reached Italy’s Chamber of Deputies. Credit: TSViPhoto / Shutterstock.com

The controversial Guantánamo Bay detention centre — which became a symbol of the war on Islamist terrorism following the 11 September attacks — has returned to the spotlight due to a possible decision by the White House to transfer 9,000 migrants to the facility.

According to The Washington Post, among the thousands of deported foreign nationals could be citizens from Italy, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Poland, Turkey and Ukraine. The same newspaper also reported growing concern among US diplomats regarding this move by the Trump administration.

In its first official statement, the US State Department — without revealing the nationalities of those detained — appeared to confirm that Guantánamo was being considered as an option: “It is not the final destination”, but in any case, “it is not new for us to transfer illegal immigrants who have committed crimes to Guantánamo before they are returned to their country of origin”, spokesperson Tammi Bruce explained.

However, the White House later denied any plan to send undocumented migrants to the detention centre, dismissing the idea as “fake news”.

The European Commission has opted not to comment on the matter.

Italy

In Italy, given that two Italian nationals were reportedly among those arrested, foreign minister Antonio Tajani acted swiftly and received no negative signals from the US side in the early stages.

Initial reactions came quickly. Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani stated that the Italians currently in the United States “should not” be sent to Guantánamo, as Italy had already informed the US administration that it was prepared to repatriate them.

“According to initial information from the Department of Homeland Security, Guantánamo would be used for irregular migrants from countries that do not accept repatriations,” Tajani said, responding to Washington Post revelations.

“Italy has already communicated to the US administration its willingness to take back its nationals who are in an irregular situation, fully respecting their individual rights and providing consular assistance. Therefore, there should be no reason for any Italian citizens to be sent to Guantánamo,” he explained.

In any case, Tajani is scheduled to hold a telephone conversation this Thursday 11 June with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “I’ll try to get further clarification, but that seems to be the current state of affairs.”

Since President Donald Trump took office in January, the Pentagon has deployed thousands of troops to the southern border, and the government has already used military aircraft to transfer Venezuelan migrants to the maximum-security facility at Guantánamo.

Controversy reaches Parliament

The controversy surrounding the possible transfer of European migrants to Guantánamo has now reached Italy’s Chamber of Deputies, where several MPs have demanded immediate explanations from Giorgia Meloni’s government and requested Tajani’s appearance before Parliament.

The Washington Post published a disturbing report: 9,000 migrants in the United States may soon be deported to the Guantánamo base — in reality, a prison. A facility infamously known for detaining criminals and Islamic State (IS) terrorists, and one which has faced serious allegations of human rights abuses,” said Angelo Bonelli from the Green and Left Alliance (AVS).

According to the MP, around 800 of those individuals are European citizens, including Britons, French and Italians. And although Tajani has stated that no Italians will be transferred, The Washington Post cites official US sources and documents suggesting otherwise.

“We are facing an extraordinarily serious situation, one which not only concerns Italian citizens but also raises profound questions about the state of human rights in the United States,” Bonelli added.

Senator Raffaella Paita, from the centrist Italia Viva party, has also called for Tajani to report to Parliament.

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Pushback Against Trump Takes Shape In The Streets Of Over 20 US Cities

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At least 24 U.S. cities on Wednesday joined the protests against Donald Trump’s immigration policy, in a wave of pushback that began last Friday in Los Angeles. New protests have been called throughout California, and from coast to coast, from Las Vegas and Seattle to New York and Austin. Thousands of people are expected to take to the streets this week to challenge the U.S. government’s campaign of mass detentions and deportations, a prelude to the protests planned for this Saturday. On that day, President Trump will celebrate his birthday with a military parade in the capital, which will be met with hundreds of demonstrations across the country.

Protests in solidarity with L.A. have been spreading to other locations since the weekend, but on Tuesday they intensified and grew in size. In New York City, thousands of people gathered in Lower Manhattan, home to several federal immigration agencies, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the main focus of protesters’ anger. The protest continued with a peaceful march through the area, but clashes broke out between authorities and a group that remained near the ICE offices. Police arrested dozens of people, pushing and knocking some protesters to the ground, and using pepper spray.

Clashes also broke out in Atlanta, Georgia, where hundreds of people had gathered to protest Tuesday night. According to authorities, six people were arrested after the protest ran past the scheduled time. Officers used chemicals and physical force to disperse the crowd, and some protesters hurled fireworks and rocks. And in Chicago, Illinois, after thousands of people marched through the city streets, some protesters threw water bottles at the police.

Chicago police contain a protest against immigration policies in Illinois.

Hundreds of people have been arrested across the country since the protests erupted. Most of the arrests have taken place in California, particularly in Los Angeles, where protests entered their sixth day Wednesday amid a heavy military presence and a curfew declared by local authorities. More than 330 people have been arrested in the country’s second-most populated city. Another 240 have been arrested in San Francisco, where protesters forced the closure of two immigration courts on Tuesday.

Some organizers fear that Trump could deploy National Guard troops or Marines to other cities, as he has already done in Los Angeles. The president has said that the military deployment in California could be “the first of many” in different states. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican and staunch ally of President Trump, especially on immigration issues, has announced that he will deploy the National Guard to his territory “to ensure peace and order,” after several protesters clashed with authorities in a few cities in the southern state, leading to dozens of arrests.

In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat but also an ally of Trump on his immigration agenda, has said he does not anticipate a military deployment and has assured that the New York Police Department, due to its size and experience, are prepared to deal with the protests. He has warned, however, that he will not tolerate a repeat of the violence seen in Los Angeles on the streets of the Big Apple. New York, like the California metropolis, is one of the so-called sanctuary cities, which do not cooperate with federal immigration authorities.

Most of the actions planned for this Saturday had been called before the protests erupted in Los Angeles to coincide with the president’s birthday and his military parade. But now the pro-immigrant demonstrations are expected to overlap with those on June 14, giving rise to a massive protest movement, perhaps the largest since Trump took office five months ago.

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Michael Douglas On US: ‘I’m Embarrassed And I Apologize’

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During the opening of his masterclass at the Taormina Film Festival in Italy, Michael Douglas said Tuesday that he is “embarrassed” by the United States and apologized for the “global chaos” created under Donald Trump’s presidency. “I realize that my country bears a lot of the responsibility for the chaos that exists in the world. I apologize… I’m embarrassed for my friends, be it my neighbors in Canada, and Mexico, for all the countries in the EU and NATO. I’m embarrassed and I apologize,” the 80-year-old actor declared in front of film students and industry professionals.

Douglas, winner of two Oscars and four Golden Globes, received the Lifetime Achievement Award in Taormina at the city’s ancient Roman theater. Throughout his career, he has combined his artistic side with social commitment: since 1998 he has served as a United Nations Messenger of Peace and collaborated with the Nuclear Threat Initiative, promoting international campaigns for the abolition of nuclear weapons.

In his masterclass, the actor criticized the constant increase in military budgets, especially in the United States, and expressed his astonishment at the persistence of armed conflicts in the age of artificial intelligence: “I have a hard time understanding why, with all the AI and how intelligent we are as human beings, how we possibly can be having this many wars and conflicts as we are. It’s ridiculous,” Douglas said to applause.

At 80 years old — he was born at the end of World War II — Douglas asserted that he had never witnessed such a turbulent period as the current one. He urged replacing military investments with initiatives for dialogue and international cooperation, and appealed to diplomacy as the only way to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.

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