Norwegian World Cup squad in full kit. Credit: Norwegian Football Federation (NFF)
Ask most footie fans who will take the World Cup this year, and almost all of them will swear their home side will definitely take the glory, as though willing their team to win was enough to guarantee lifting the cup this year. Finding someone objective enough to predict a rank outsider having a chance is rare, but Euro Weekly News surveyed scores of fans and found some that still held on to enough objectivity to suggest some sides we shouldn’t cross off the list of hopefuls and why.
Bookies already know their favourites, and they are, of course, Spain and France at the top of the list, followed by England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil, who all hold the vast majority of mathematical probability. However, with 48 teams and more knockout games to come, there’s slightly more room for chaos than in past 32-team formats, but upsets still taper off after the group stage/round of 16. After all, where’s Italy this year?
A freak win requires perfect storms one after another: easy draws, star performances/injuries to opponents, penalty luck, etc., but here’s what our readers are saying about who to look out for.
Ones to watch, according to Euro Weekly News readers
Norway (FIFA ~31st, odds ~25-1 to 35-1): Erling Haaland is the ultimate X-factor. If he goes on a tear and the supporting cast (including Ødegaard) clicks, they could go far in their first WC since 1998. Norway is a high-level dark horse.
Colombia (FIFA ~13th, odds ~40-1 to 50-1): Very talented squad this year with attacking flair (e.g., Luis Díaz). Strong CONMEBOL pedigree and capable of upsetting anyone on their day.
Morocco (FIFA ~7th, odds ~35-1 after strong start): Semi-finalists in 2022, very solid squad, and recent results (e.g., drawing Brazil) have shortened their odds. Disciplined, tactically strong, and capable of knocking out bigger sides. Best non-European/South American bet for a surprise
USA (co-hosts, FIFA ~17th): Home advantage and momentum could carry them deep, though they’re more “mid-tier” than pure outsiders.
Netherlands or Germany (if you consider them outsiders relative to Spain or France): Often around 14-1 to 20-1; elite squads that could easily win it all in the right bracket.
Realistic assessment – Euro Weekly News doesn’t give betting tips
The favourites still dominate at the bookies: Spain and France, then England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil hold the most chances. A freak win requires perfect storms: easy draws, star performances/injuries to opponents, penalty luck, etc. But it could still happen.
Bottom line: Morocco and Norway currently offer the most compelling “freak win” profiles among clear outsiders: talent + form + upside. Japan and Colombia are next. Anything beyond that (e.g., 100-1, or more) would be one of the biggest shocks in the sport’s history. The group stage is now underway with Spain to play their opening match on June 15. So, check live results and updated odds, as things will no doubt move fast in this year’s FIFA World Cup!
Tell us who you’re backing in the comments. We might feature your picks next week!