The second meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul, held Monday, yielded few results, but served to confirm one important point: that the Kremlin has no intention of putting pen to paper on a ceasefire deal. During the one-hour meeting between the two delegations, a new exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of fallen combatants was agreed upon, but little else. Russians and Ukrainians exchanged documents that should serve as roadmaps for a peace process. Even if Kyiv makes concessions to implement a complete ceasefire, Moscow is demanding conditions that practically mean the surrender of the invaded country.

The document presented by the Kremlin not only maintains the same objectives that President Vladimir Putin set when he launched the invasion in 2022, but also includes the annexation of more territories, in addition to the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia’s current plan is to force Ukraine’s partners to abandon it and for Kyiv to agree to weaken its army in exchange for a truce. This would leave Ukraine at the mercy of Moscow in the future. If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy doesn’t accept, the Kremlin has room to continue the current war of attrition for between one and two years, according to some independent Russian economists.

The Russian memorandum consists of three sections: one on its demands for signing a peace agreement, another on its proposals for a ceasefire, and a third defining the timeframe for the hypothetical truce and eventual end to the war. According to the Kremlin’s timetable, Ukraine would first withdraw its troops from the front lines, with no respite from Russian soldiers, and only then would Moscow comply with a supposed 30-day ceasefire. At that point, Zelenskiy’s government would lift martial law and hold elections within 100 days. Subsequently, with the newly elected president in place, Russia would sign the supposed peace agreement.

Putin rejects an unconditional ceasefire at the front. Moscow has offered Kyiv two alternatives, both of which require it to disarm in exchange for a freeze on the conflict for a few weeks.

Complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops

The first option Moscow is offering is the “complete withdrawal” of the Ukrainian army from the regions it wants to occupy: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian troops must also withdraw from the Russian border “to a distance to be agreed upon by the parties.” That is, Kyiv would have to pull back its army from the trenches that prevent Russia from advancing on Kyiv and Kharkiv from the north, leaving Odesa unprotected in the south.

The second option proposed by the Kremlin involves a ceasefire on the front line, but with a catch: Putin is demanding a package of concessions from Zelenskiy that includes “the cessation of mobilization [of new recruits] and the beginning of demobilization [of current forces]”; the end of arms supplies and foreign military assistance to Ukraine, “including the provision of satellite communications and intelligence services,” and “Ukraine’s renunciation of sabotage on Russian territory [including occupied areas of Ukraine].” Russia essentially wants to leave Kyiv defenseless.

Whether there is a truce or not, the Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist objectives. In the first section of the memorandum, it demands a neutral status for Ukraine; that is, Kyiv’s renunciation of its NATO membership bid and any other defensive alliances with third countries. Moscow demands the country’s disarmament in another section: it asks to “establish a maximum number of personnel, weapons, and vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” as well as to disband its “nationalist” units and the National Guard.

The Kremlin is also attempting to destabilize Ukrainian politics by demanding “the outlawing of nationalist parties and organizations.” According to official Russian discourse, which denies the existence of Ukraine and ignores the centuries-long repression of its culture under Tsarism and the Soviet Union, all Ukrainian nationalism is “fascist.” In its memorandum, Moscow links this demand to its proposal to “outlaw Nazi propaganda.”

Moscow also demands that Kyiv “guarantee all the rights of the Russian-speaking population and grant Russian the status of an official language.” This is a sensitive issue: in order to reinforce their independence from Moscow, Ukrainian governments began restricting the official use of the country’s second language following the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, the incursion into eastern Donbas that same year, and the full invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Finally, Moscow is demanding that Kyiv waive any future compensation for damages caused by an invasion that has devastated cities and killed tens of thousands of people.

Ukraine, more conciliatory

The Ukrainian delegation arrived in Istanbul with a much more conciliatory stance, even assuming concessions from the outset. The first point of the document tabled by Kyiv is that both sides immediately accept a comprehensive, unconditional ceasefire of at least 30 days, which will be extendable. This truce should be supervised by third countries, led by the United States. The temporary ceasefire is essential for peace negotiations, according to the Ukrainian government.

Unlike Moscow, Kyiv does not demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from its country from the outset to begin the path to peace. The Ukrainian memorandum only states that “the territories conquered by Russia since February 2014 will not be recognized by the international community.” This section refers to the outbreak of the war in Donbas and Russia’s illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The White House, under President Donald Trump, has reiterated the possibility that Ukraine may have to relinquish sovereignty over Crimea.

The starting point for negotiations, according to the Ukrainian authorities, is the front line: “Territorial issues will be discussed only after a complete and unconditional ceasefire is implemented.”

There is another important assumption in the Ukrainian document for the talks with Russia: that Kyiv, which opposes Russia’s demands of neutrality, implicitly assumes that its entry into NATO is unlikely: “The Ukrainian state may decide to become part of the Euro-Atlantic community and move toward EU membership. NATO membership depends on consensus within the Atlantic Alliance.” These words acknowledge the opposition of key countries, such as the U.S., to Ukraine’s NATO membership, one of Russia’s demands.

Putin and Zelenskiy are primarily trying to keep the negotiation process alive to curry favor with Trump, as his support could tip the balance in the war. The U.S. president is the main driving force behind the diplomatic rapprochement between the two warring parties, but he has already made it clear that Kyiv will have to make the most concessions, such as withdrawing from its NATO bid. Zelenskiy called a Russian counterproposal to sign a two- or three-day ceasefire limited to specific sections of the front “idiotic.” The Ukrainian leader considered this further evidence that Putin is only seeking to prevent Trump from imposing new sanctions.

Sabotage on the Kerch Bridge

Kyiv and its European allies assume Moscow simply wants to buy time and continue its offensive on the ground. Russian troops are advancing at their fastest pace in more than six months, according to military analysis groups such as the Institute for the Study of War and Deep State. Ukraine is also continuing its long-range attacks against Russian strategic targets. Sunday’s surprise attack against Russian airbases was followed by a new sabotage operation on the Kerch Bridge this Tuesday.

This infrastructure connects Russia to the Crimean peninsula. The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has reported its third attack on the bridge, this time an operation in which they managed to plant explosives on one of the infrastructure’s pillars. The occupying authorities in Crimea have suspended vehicle traffic. The SSU maintains that the bridge’s stability is “in a state of emergency.”

Russia has also accused Ukraine of being behind the derailment of two trains last weekend in the Bryansk and Kursk provinces. At least seven people died in one of the incidents, according to the Russian Federal Emergency Service. Kyiv has declined to comment on the report.

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