Crowds gather for Semana Santa as weather uncertainty looms across Spain Credit : Goodwin Mallorca, Shutterstock
It’s April 1 and Spain has just stepped into spring – but if you’re expecting warm, settled Easter weather, you may want to rethink your plans. A forecast from Jorge Rey, known for predicting the Filomena snowstorm, points to a colder and wetter start to April, right as Semana Santa begins.
According to his latest outlook, based on the traditional cabañuelas method, parts of northern and central Spain could see below-average temperatures, rain and even the chance of snow over the coming days, before conditions shift again later in the month.
Cold start to April: what to expect this Semana Santa
The timing couldn’t be more important. Easter week is one of the busiest travel periods in Spain, with processions, road trips and last-minute getaways planned across the country.
Up until now, the weather has been on your side. The final days of March brought calm skies, very little rain and temperatures close to normal levels, according to Aemet. It felt like a smooth start to spring.
But as April begins, things may take a different turn.
In his latest video, Jorge Rey suggests that Semana Santa could be unsettled in large parts of the country, particularly in the north and central regions. He expects cooler-than-usual temperatures to stick around until around April 6, which this year falls on Easter Monday.
Alongside the drop in temperature, rain is likely across several areas, and in higher altitudes, snow hasn’t been ruled out. That doesn’t mean widespread snowfall, but enough to remind people that winter isn’t entirely gone yet.
For anyone planning to be outdoors – whether it’s watching processions or travelling between cities – it could mean keeping an umbrella close by rather than relying on spring sunshine.
Who is Jorge Rey – and what are the cabañuelas?
Jorge Rey isn’t a traditional meteorologist, but he’s become a familiar name in Spain after correctly anticipating Storm Filomena in 2021, which caught many by surprise at the time.
His forecasts are based on the cabañuelas, a centuries-old method of predicting the weather by observing natural patterns – things like wind direction, cloud behaviour or temperature changes at specific times of the year.
It’s not the same as modern forecasting models used by Aemet, and it’s not meant to replace them. But every time he shares a new outlook, it gets attention – especially when it lines up with major travel periods like Easter.
So while his predictions should be taken as a broader trend rather than a precise forecast, they still give an idea of what kind of month April might turn into.
After Easter: brief sunshine, then more rain on the way
Looking beyond the Easter weekend, Rey expects the weather to remain changeable.
Shortly after April 6, rain could return to western parts of Spain, particularly from around April 8 onwards. This unsettled spell may last a few days before things improve again.
By around April 12 or 13, he points to the arrival of a high-pressure system, which would bring several days of calmer, sunnier weather. During that window, temperatures could climb noticeably, with some areas seeing 20 to 25 degrees.
It’s the kind of weather many would expect in April – but it may not last long.
Storms, dust and another shift later in April
By mid-month, the pattern could change again.
Around April 16 and 17, Rey expects another front to move in from the west, bringing fresh rain. This could develop into storms across parts of the southwest, including areas like Extremadura, Huelva, Cádiz and Seville.
The following weekend, April 18 and 19, could bring something slightly different. According to his forecast, a low-pressure system may form near Morocco, potentially pushing calima (Saharan dust) towards parts of southern and eastern Spain.
If that happens, areas such as Málaga, Almería, Murcia and even the Canary Islands could see hazy skies alongside unstable weather.
Toward the end of the month, Rey suggests more Atlantic fronts could arrive, particularly affecting the west and north. Around April 27 and 28, a more active system entering through Galicia could bring widespread rain, cooler air and even snow in mountainous regions.
A month that may not settle down
Taken as a whole, the forecast points to a stop-start kind of April.
Instead of a steady move into warmer spring weather, the month could bring a mix of cooler spells, brief warmth and repeated rounds of rain. It’s the kind of pattern that can make planning tricky, especially during busy periods like Easter.
As always, official updates from Aemet remain the most reliable for day-to-day conditions. But Rey’s outlook gives a broader sense of what might be coming – and for now, it suggests that this first week of April may feel a bit more like late winter than early spring in some parts of Spain.
So if you’re heading out this week, it might be worth packing for both seasons.
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