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Study Of Over 1,000 Sites Suggests Inequality Emerged Long After Agriculture

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It must have been Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778), the philosopher and one of the fathers of the Enlightenment, who was one of the first to link the emergence of wealth disparities — both moral and material — with the development of complex societies. This was an argument explained in his Discourse on the Origin and Basis of Inequality Among Men.

Later, in the earliest studies documenting the Neolithic Revolution, social scientists established a direct link between the abandonment of the natural state, hunter-gatherer societies, and the beginning of the end of that Eden. In simple terms, they proposed that as humans domesticated plants and animals, they became anchored to the land. From agricultural settlements arose the first cities, where surplus value accumulated, leading to class differentiation, the rise of politics, and eventually, the formation of the first states.

However, a study published on Monday in PNAS — examining the size of around 53,000 houses from more than 1,000 archaeological sites spanning the last 10,000 years — tells a different story: inequality emerged many generations after humans had ceased to be the Rousseauian noble savage.

The study is part of the Global Dynamics of Inequality (GINI) Project, which involves historians, archaeologists, economists, and sociologists. Their goal is to revisit Rousseau’s premise, but with the advanced tools of modern science, three centuries later. The project uses an index currently employed to measure income or wealth inequality within a population.

It bears the same name as the GINI coefficient, a key tool for statisticians, economists, and policymakers. This GINI index ranges from 0 (representing highly egalitarian societies) to 1 (where the disparity between the rich and poor is extreme). However, there is no data on the income or earnings of inhabitants in cities like Çatalhöyük, a 9,000-year-old settlement in modern-day Turkey, or El Palmillo, a Mayan site dating back between 1,500 and 1,250 years. As a result, researchers turned to the size of homes as an indirect way to assess the wealth of these past populations.

As Gary Feinman, an anthropologist at the Field Museum in Chicago, co-author of one of the 11 GINI studies, explains: “Variations in house size may not reflect the full magnitude of wealth differences, but they are a consistent indicator of the degree of economic inequality that can be applied across time and space.”

With this in mind, the researchers studied the size of tens of thousands of homes from nearly 3,000 sites, some dating back just a few centuries after the end of the last Ice Age.

“I know from my own archaeological fieldwork in the Oaxaca Valley, Mexico, that almost always, the larger the house, the more elaborate it is, with special features and thicker walls,” says Feinman.

It was enough for the researchers that the floor plan was preserved, although any other data (its layout, material wealth found, etc.) also helped to infer the wealth of its inhabitants. With this approach, they were not only able to compare the evolution of each site, but also to compare within each one, looking for differences in status.

Palmillo

The various studies include data from the first cities that emerged where agriculture began: the Middle East, Anatolia, and almost simultaneously along the eastern coast of what is now China and Japan. Additionally, they collected data from other parts of the world where the Neolithic arrived later, such as Eastern and Central Europe, pre-Roman Britain, and the pre-Inca, Aztec, and Mayan civilizations.

The first key takeaway from this research is that there isn’t one singular story of inequality, but rather many. “There are many things that have been taken for granted for centuries, for example, that inequality inevitably increases,” Feinman says. “The traditional view assumes that once larger societies with formal leaders develop, or once agriculture arrives, inequality will increase considerably. These ideas have been held for centuries, and what we’re discovering is that it’s more complex than that: in the most complex societies, inequality doesn’t necessarily rise to a peak.”

According to the anthropologist, there are factors that can facilitate or increase inequality, “but these factors can be stabilized or modified by different decisions and human institutions.”

The researchers discovered that over 10,000 years, the greatest inequalities appeared in the longest-lasting human settlements. Another key factor was war, which tended to reduce inequalities. One of the studies classified homes based on whether they were in fortified settlements, using the walls as an indirect indicator of militarism. They found a strong correlation between residential differences and conflict, especially, as the authors note, “in the context of collective governance and labor-limited food production.” However, they also found long periods, particularly in the earliest periods represented in the database (dating back 10,000 years), when the difference between homes in fortified sites was either smaller or equal to that of non-fortified settlements.

Dan Lawrence, a professor at the University of Durham and the first author of one of the studies, as well as co-author of several others, points to cases that highlight this variability. As expected, in many of the older sites, the Gini coefficient is very balanced.

“The lowest are those of the hunter-gatherer societies of the Jomon period in Japan,” explains Lawrence. Regarding more well-known complex societies from history, “we can say that Rome was very unequal: Pompeii has a Gini coefficient of 0.61, and Roman Britain is also around 0.6, depending on how you calculate it,” he adds.

However, in cities like Mohenjo-Daro, located in the Indus Valley, which had around 35,000 inhabitants nearly 5,000 years ago, the Gini coefficient was only 0.22. Another example of low inequality in large cities is the Tripilia culture, a Neolithic society that emerged in what is now Ukraine around 7,000 years ago. “These are examples of large centers with very low Gini coefficients, most of them around 0.2,” he concludes.

The other major finding is that inequality took time to emerge. While there are some cases where inequality appeared almost simultaneously with the rise of agriculture and cities, in most of the archaeological record, it took many years — sometimes millennia — for the connection between Neolithic developments and wealth disparities to become apparent. The title of one study sums it up: “100 generations of wealth equality after Neolithic transitions.”

“This is probably our most interesting finding: that there is a lag between the rise of agriculture and the rise of inequality,” says Lawrence. “Since Rousseau, it has been assumed that as agriculture developed, so did private property ownership and, as a result, increased inequality. We show that this isn’t the case, and that, instead, people remained virtually equal for more than a millennium after agriculture became widespread.”

The enormous gap between the development of agriculture, with all that followed, and the rise of inequality still has no explanation. However, the authors propose two potential explanations, which are not mutually exclusive. On one hand, they suggest it may be related to the dynamics between population growth and agricultural methods. Initially, populations were still small, and the primary limitation on production was the available labor force.

“Over time, population increases and land decreases. Under these conditions, there are more opportunities for conflict, for winners and losers,” Lawrence argues.

The other explanation, which could have occurred in parallel, is the weight of tradition. Lawrence explains: “The cultural norms of egalitarian hunter-gatherer societies may have taken a long time to disappear, so early farmers would have had solid leveling mechanisms that prevented the emergence of inequality.”

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What Is Known And What Remains Unknown About The Massive Blackout In Spain

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The Iberian Peninsula experienced a massive and historic blackout on Monday, which left the mainland territories of Spain and Portugal without electricity for hours. “In my more than 40 years in this sector, I have never seen anything like this,” said Jorge Fabra, who for a decade president of Red Eléctrica, the public company that operates the national electricity grid in Spain. In the afternoon, electricity was beginning to be restored in some parts of the country. However, the main question that remains is what exactly happened. “We do not rule out any hypothesis,” said Pedro Sánchez, the country’s prime minister, at a press conference at around 6 p.m. local time “We do not know the causes,” he insisted, thus further increasing the uncertainty surrounding the historic energy collapse.

This is what is known and what is not known about the incident as of Monday afternoon.

When did the power outage start?

At 12:32 p.m. local time, “a very strong fluctuation in power flows” was detected in the electrical grids. This fluctuation was due to a loss of generation, meaning a drop in electricity production, which in Spain comes mainly from nuclear plants, hydroelectric plants, combined cycles, and solar and wind farms.

This power loss was caused by the sudden disappearance of 15 GW of generation for five seconds. To understand the scale of the problem, the five nuclear power plants in Spain have a combined installed capacity of 7.4 GW.

The fluctuation caused by this drop, the causes of which are still being investigated, triggered the disconnection of the Spanish electrical system from the European grid, which relies on an interconnection with France. This disconnection “led to the collapse” of the system and the subsequent widespread blackout, according to Eduardo Prieto, Director of Operations Services at Red Eléctrica, in an initial press conference at 2:30 p.m. Later, at 7:00 p.m., Prieto reiterated this explanation and emphasized that this is an “absolutely exceptional event,” of a dimension never before seen in Spain.

When will the problem be solved?

Prieto had stated at 2:30 p.m. that the full recovery of service in Spain would take between six and ten hours, and that it would be “gradual and progressive.” However, during the afternoon briefing, he no longer specified the number of hours required for the system to be fully restored.

The Spanish government has declared an electricity crisis following the interruption of the power supply, and work has begun to restore the service.

Technicians from Red Eléctrica and electric companies are now working on restoring the voltage, starting in areas close to France. Once the voltage is restored in the system and delivered to the plants, they can start to bring things back to normal. By 5:30 p.m., electricity had been restored in areas of Catalonia, Aragón, the Basque Country, Galicia, La Rioja, Asturias, Navarre, Castile and León, Extremadura, and Andalusia, according to Red Eléctrica. By 6:45 p.m., areas including Madrid, the Valencian Community, Murcia, and Castile-La Mancha had begun to have the power restored. By 9:30 p.m., according to Prieto, 35% of the supply was already covered.

What caused the system collapse?

Neither Prime Minister Sánchez, Prieto, nor any official source has explained what caused this unprecedented energy shutdown. “We are not going to speculate,” insisted official government sources. During his brief statement without taking questions, Sánchez emphasized the need to avoid spreading “information of questionable origin.”

Was it caused by a meteorological phenomenon?

Various hypotheses have emerged about the cause of the blackout, some of which have been debunked.

Reuters reported that REN (Redes Energéticas Nacionais, the equivalent of Red Eléctrica in Spain) had suggested that a strange meteorological phenomenon in Spain could be the origin of the blackout. However, sources from this organization have denied that information, which pointed to a supposed temperature variation in the interior of Spain.

Could it have been a cyberattack?

Since the massive blackout occurred, it has been speculated that it could have been caused by a cyberattack. The first to assert this most firmly was the premier of Andalusia, Juan Manuel Moreno, who stated that, according to information from the regional cybersecurity center, “everything points to the fact that a blackout of this magnitude could only be due to a cyberattack.” Moreno, however, acknowledged that he had reached this conclusion without confirmation from La Moncloa or another institution. A couple of hours later, the Vice President of the European Commission, Teresa Ribera, stated in Brussels that, after being in contact with Spanish and Portuguese authorities, there were no “indications that [the blackout] was deliberately caused.”

The National Cryptologic Center, which operates under the National Intelligence Center (CNI), has limited itself to saying that it is investigating the cyberattack hypothesis. Spain has become one of the countries most targeted by cyberattacks considered critical due to their severity, with several hundred each year. The Joint Cyber Command, which is under the Ministry of Defense, is also investigating the possible cyber origin of the blackout.

Would a cyberattack of this scale be possible?

The preparation and execution of a cyberattack that shuts down the electricity of almost two entire countries is very complex. It requires a coordinated operation that achieves several objectives simultaneously. “A blackout of this scale through a cyberattack would be complicated because there are many segmented electrical networks,” said Martín Vigo, a cybersecurity specialist. And once it happens, analyzing the networks to find the origin of the attack is not easy either. “Cyberattacks on electrical networks are possible both in theory and in practice because energy infrastructures are very complex systems, full of vulnerable points,” said Lukasz Olejnik, an expert from King’s College London. “An attack, for example, could target transformers or substations, causing damage to hardware until it starts to fail. But coordinating such a large and synchronized attack would be extremely difficult.”

Has an attack like this happened before?

So far in Spain, there is no indication that something like this has occurred. The only successful attacks of this scale took place in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016, with Russia being the culprit. “Other cases were simply demonstrations, failed attempts, or mere rumors,” said Olejnik. The official teams responsible for investigating whether there has truly been an attack have all the necessary tools to find out if it did happen: “Speculating now is not very useful: we simply don’t have enough data,” added the expert. “There is no ‘clear symptom’ that would allow us to say with certainty that a blackout like this is due to a cyberattack. Everything we’ve seen so far could also be explained by normal, non-malicious causes. That’s why it’s important to investigate and avoid falling into rumors or misinformation.”

The National Cybersecurity Institute (INCIBE) warned a year ago about the “significant increase in cyberattacks affecting industrial environments and critical systems.” The institution cited the malicious software BlackEnergy as an example, which was used by Russian hackers on December 23, 2015, to sabotage the electricity distributors in the Ukrainian region of Ivano-Frankivsk, causing a blackout that affected 1.5 million people.

The National Security Department (DSN) of the Prime Minister’s Office also warned in its latest report about the “increase in the number, frequency, sophistication, and severity of cyberattacks.” In 2023, the National Cryptologic Center managed about 108,000 incidents; INCIBE handled 83,500; and the Joint Cyber Command of the Ministry of Defense dealt with 1,480. The advisory body to the prime minister warned of the existence of “increasingly sophisticated attackers and growing interconnectivity, which broadens their potential range of action.”

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No Subway, No Traffic Lights, No Elevators And No Coverage In Madrid Due To The Blackout: ‘Can I Borrow Your Phone To Call My Mom?’

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At the stroke of midday, José Vicente de los Mozos, president of IFEMA and CEO of Indra — a Spanish information technology and defense company — leaves the fairgrounds because of a schedule change he has known about for hours. About fifteen journalists have been listening to him talk about the organization’s financial results deep within the infrastructure — a giant 200,000-square-meter complex embedded in the north of the capital — and watch him rush off. Then, darkness. No backup generator kicks in. No emergency lights, either. The power grid has gone down, and only the screens of phones and laptops faintly light up the meeting room, along with the feeble glow of a few dying lamps. A day of chaos has just begun, as the worst power blackout in Spain’s recent history paralyzed the country.

“Well, it looks like the press conference is over,” someone is heard saying. The IFEMA managers quickly shift from joking to action. Orders are given to open all the doors of the site, which has little activity this Monday. The parking barriers are lifted. When a visitor tries to take the elevator downstairs, they are advised to use the stairs instead. It’s good advice: by mid-afternoon, Madrid’s firefighters have counted 210 incidents, most of them to rescue people trapped in elevators, and SAMUR— Spain’s emergency system — has reported 167 emergencies, mainly due to respiratory issues and anxiety attacks.

When all the attendees of the press conference step outside, they are met with chaos. Traffic lights aren’t working. Traffic moves like in the Wild West: whoever accelerates first wins. Every roundabout becomes an adventure. Cell phone coverage comes and goes. A neighbor watches from her balcony as an unknown pedestrian talks on the phone and shouts at him.

—Is your phone working?

—Yes!

—Will you wait for me, and I’ll go downstairs to call my mom? I can’t reach her. Can I borrow your phone?

Firefighters rescue a woman from an elevator in Leganés.

Exceptional situations produce exceptional events, like this unexpected encounter between two residents of neighboring apartment blocks who had never spoken before. He ends up saving her mother’s phone number in his mobile. She, desperate for news — since the radio, TV, and internet are all down — grows increasingly frantic: although her phone has a signal, no one answers on the other end. “This must be Putin’s doing,” she mutters, just as her phone, finally, begins to ring.

All around the scene, more chaos. Two parents split up: the woman, pushing a stroller, heads to the daycare to pick up their baby; the man goes to fetch their older children from school. Police block off lanes at roundabouts to ease traffic flow and also work to maintain order at key transport hubs. But without traffic lights, it’s nearly impossible. They worry: what will it be like at rush hour?

Numerous people around the Moncloa Transport Interchange after the electricity blackout, on Monday in Madrid.

That must be exactly what the parents crowding the gates of two schools on Arturo Soria Street fear. They have arrived an hour and a half before pickup time to collect their children before more families flood the area and turn the neighborhood, without traffic lights, into a trap.

At one of these schools, teachers worry about what to do with a diabetic child who can’t recharge the phone he uses to monitor his condition. The father who shows up to pick him up faces another problem: figuring out how long the insulin he needs to inject him with will last without the necessary refrigeration. Around them, the other children carry on with their classes as if nothing were happening — happier than usual even, since the lack of power has given them more time for recess.

At a nearby Mercadona supermarket, two cars are parked across the middle of a lane, their trunks being loaded with all kinds of food. Shouting and insults erupt, because if traffic was already difficult without traffic lights, the two vehicles are making it even worse. But that’s the least of it: the roads leading into the capital, like the M-30, have turned into a monumental traffic jam since three in the afternoon.

Apagón masivo en España

Pedestrians watch everything without intervening, likely too preoccupied with their own troubles: the normally peaceful avenues have today turned into highways, and crossing the street has become an extreme sport. There are also those completely oblivious to the situation: an elderly couple strolls along a dirt path, dressed as if preparing to conquer Mount Everest, smiling behind their sunglasses, with boots and trekking poles in hand.

Tension in the city center

But the tense calm in the outskirts of Madrid turns into pure, raw tension in the city center. While the mayor, José Luis Martínez-Almeida, announces the closure of the M-30 tunnels, and the regional president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, calls for the possibility of military intervention, the sidewalks of Paseo de la Castellana and other streets fill with people trying to get home because they can no longer work; with parents worried about their children’s schooling today and in the coming days (will schools open tomorrow?); and with tourists, lost and helpless in the chaos.

There is no subway. High-speed trains are not operating, either. Nor is Barajas Airport. People rush to grab any available taxi. The roundabout at Plaza de Cibeles is a nightmare. Everyone walks toward Atocha Station, hoping they might find some way to travel from there. Around the roundabouts, there are pedestrians holding signs with the destination they hope to reach — places that, under the punishing spring sun of Madrid, feel very far away.

“We don’t know anything, only that it’s a massive blackout,” says Luis, a Mexican tourist at Atocha Station who had planned to leave Madrid for Barcelona at three in the afternoon on Monday, along with two of his friends. The station is closed.

Like many others, Oriol is also trapped. He was one of the 30 volunteers who ran 42 kilometers in the marathon held in the capital on Sunday, alongside 12 patients in wheelchairs, to raise awareness of their rare disease: ataxia telangiectasia. This Monday, he is trying to return to Barcelona along with two of the patients who participated in the run, Luis and Álvaro, and their mother. All without success. “We have to wait. We’ve slept here for three nights, and their mother is trying to call the hotel to see if they have space,” he says, just before the police clear the station entrances.

The same scene — crowds of people searching for a way home — repeats itself at other transport hubs, like Moncloa in the west of the capital, which connects to cities such as Pozuelo, Majadahonda, and Boadilla del Monte. Because in Madrid, with seven million inhabitants, when everything shuts down, chaos erupts and worry follows.

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Massive Power Blackout Hits Spain And Portugal

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The worst power blackout in Spain’s recent history has affected, since noon local time, millions of citizens throughout the country as well as Portugal. The power cut has paralyzed the normal functioning of infrastructures, telecommunications, roads, train stations, airports, stores, and buildings. Hospitals have not been impacted as they are using generators. There is still no official explanation for the massive blackout. Authorities have not ruled out a cyberattack as both the Spanish and Portuguese governments investigate the cause.

Red Eléctrica, the public company that operates the national electricity grid in Spain, emphasized the unprecedented nature of the situation: “Such an event has never occurred before; it is an absolutely exceptional incident.” According to the grid operator, starting at 13:00 (7:00 a.m. EST), efforts began to restore voltage in the northern and southern parts of the peninsula, “which is key to progressively restoring the electricity supply.” Eduardo Prieto, Director of Operations Services at Red Eléctrica, stated that full service recovery will take between six and ten hours, which, if confirmed, would mean that power would be restored across the country between nine in the evening and one in the morning.

The outage has suddenly set Spain back to the 19th century. Traffic lights out of service, traffic jams forming across the country, pedestrians wandering around cities without public transportation, desperate families trying to communicate with their loved ones, passengers left stranded without trains or flights, canceled medical appointments, rescues underway in subway stations and elevators, lines forming outside small shops due to supermarket closures… These were some of the scenes left by the unprecedented event on Monday.

The urgency of the incident has led the authorities to make it the only topic on the agenda. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez held a meeting at the Control Center of Red Eléctrica, where Deputy Prime Minister Sara Aagesen and several other ministers were also present. The National Security Council has also called a meeting. At the regional level, local governments are also mobilizing. Catalan regional premier Salvador Illa held a meeting with the crisis cabinet at the Palau de la Generalitat de Catalunya. Other regions, such as Andalusia and the Basque Country, have done the same.

Red Eléctrica indicated that the process of restoring the supply will “involve the gradual energization of the transmission network as the generation units are reconnected.” They added that they continue “working to restore the supply.” For his part, Prieto said that the company’s technicians are “focused on restoring the supply so that the impact on society is as minimal as possible.” However, he did not want to point to possible causes: “There is no information on the cause of the incident, and we cannot speculate about its origin. Everything will be analyzed in detail.”

Citizens from all Spanish regions and from Portugal reported widespread power outages shortly after noon. According to major Spanish electric companies consulted by EL PAÍS, no explanation has yet been provided for the blackouts. The Adif railway network experienced voltage losses, leading to the suspension of train traffic across the country. Renfe announced through its social media accounts that there has been no train movement or departures from stations since 12:30. Various airlines reported disruptions at airports such as Madrid-Barajas and Barcelona-El Prat as power supply is being restored. Air traffic controllers have reported traffic regulations or reductions at the two major hubs on the peninsula: Madrid-Barajas and Lisbon. Confusion reigns among airlines and travelers.

The blackout is also affecting telecommunications. There are widespread problems making phone calls, and the WhatsApp messaging service is operating at reduced capacity. Major telecommunications companies like Telefónica and Masorange are investigating the situation and working to restore service as quickly as possible. The internet can work for a few hours without electricity, but not for much longer. While data centers are protected by their own backup generators, the network relies on intermediate systems that have a shorter autonomy.

Non-urgent medical interventions are suspended

Spain’s healthcare system is currently functioning, as hospitals are equipped with backup generators for power outages, which can keep essential equipment such as ventilators, heart monitors, and other vital medical devices running for hours. Although some facilities in certain areas may experience power loss, it should not affect critical care. A spokesperson for the Gregorio Marañón Hospital in Madrid explained that an emergency committee has been activated to make decisions depending on how long the electrical failure lasts, but emphasized that patient care is fully covered. At the 12 de Octubre Hospital in Madrid, where emergency systems have also been activated and power is available, a spokesperson indicated that surgeries already underway have continued, while those that had not yet started have been suspended for the time being, except for urgent cases. The Hospital del Mar in Barcelona is operating normally.

Due to the widespread blackout on the mainland, Spain’s Directorate-General for Traffic is asking the public to avoid using their cars except in cases of extreme necessity, due to the risk of accidents. “The lack of electricity supply prevents the operation of traffic lights and signage panels.” In some areas, police officers are manually directing traffic.

In Madrid, the Metro service has been suspended due to “external causes” related to the power outage, according to a message posted on X. Likewise, the Madrid Cercanías commuter rail network is out of service due to the lack of electricity. Additionally, 150 elevator incidents have been reported in the city, according to the mayor, José Luis Martínez-Almeida.

Factory lines come to a halt

In addition to infrastructure, commerce, and telecommunications, large industries are also struggling to continue their operations. Car manufacturers Seat and Ford have stopped their production lines. As this newspaper has been able to confirm, the Ford Almussafes car plant is currently without power and with the production lines completely stopped. “The workers are scared, they don’t know what has happened,” says a company spokesman. Truck manufacturer Iveco, which has factories in Madrid and Valladolid, has also stopped machines while waiting for the power to come back on.

The Spanish stock exchange (BME) confirms that it is operating normally and that there have been no interruptions in stock market operations. Sources from the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) indicate that “market infrastructures are functioning normally,” although it is possible that some financial institutions are experiencing connectivity issues that could prevent their clients from operating as usual.

In Portugal, the blackout is also widespread. At the Lisbon airport, thousands of passengers are left in a state of confusion following the power system failure. There has been no official explanation yet from the Portuguese government regarding the failure in the country’s electrical grid, which is also affecting the telecommunications network. Red Eléctrica Nacional, the company that manages distribution in the country, confirmed that this is a widespread failure across the entire territory and that they are investigating the causes. Minister Manuel Castro Almeida stated on the RTP television channel that a cyberattack cannot be ruled out, and that it may be impacting several European countries.

The massive power outage in Spain and Portugal, according to some French media, has only mildly impacted areas near the French border. Cities like Perpignan, according to the newspaper L’Indépendant, have experienced some brief power cuts. Beyond these areas, the country has not faced further disruptions.

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