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The Struggle For Hegemony: US And China Compete For Supremacy In A Turbulent Landscape

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The year 2025 marked the end of an era. Donald Trump’s return to power signaled the demise of a phase characterized by globalization, the development of a network of international institutions, and U.S. hegemony supported by strong European and Asian alliances. The new year will offer crucial clues about the turbulent course of this new historical stage, one in which power balances and international relations are being reshaped. The struggle for hegemony between the U.S. and China, and the dual assault on Europe (military, from Russia; political, cultural, and commercial, from Washington), are emerging as the most important factors in this complex and far-reaching transformation.

The two elements are interconnected, since in this competition not only does the intrinsic strength of each matter, but also their ability to garner support on the international stage. And it is in this global sense — in addition to its regional impact — that what happens in Europe matters so much. The year 2026 will clarify the consequences of the White House’s astonishing strategic shift, which now explicitly considers the EU an adversary and warns that it will cultivate resistance against it by supporting national-populist movements in the Old Continent. The results of this shift will influence the emerging new world order. For Washington, a strong and allied Europe is an asset; an independent and distrustful Europe is a defeat; a fragmented Europe is an opportunity in some ways, but a setback in other more important ones. For Beijing, a defeated Russia is a problem. A Russia that is still standing but weak is an asset thanks to the exploitation of the dependence inherent in that weakness. A victorious Russia that the U.S. plays along with is another kind of problem.

Thus, Europe is a key player in a new era dawning with two superpowers, as in the Cold War, although this time it doesn’t seem headed toward bipolarity. Back then, a large and powerful part of the world was firmly aligned with one side or the other; the non-aligned part was large but very weak. The new superpower struggle, however, shows many signs of playing out in a more volatile, multipolar world; with two dominant poles and other significant — albeit misaligned — powers such as Europe and, increasingly, India, or medium-sized powers with strong regional influence.

All of this will be influenced by a decisive political event in 2026: the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November. On the one hand, because Trumpism knows it has a window of absolute power to deepen its counterrevolution — against the advances of multilateralism, human rights, democracy, and long-standing alliances — and that this window could be partially closed in 2027 when the new Congress is installed. Today, it controls the White House and both chambers of Congress, as well as enjoying a judiciary with conservative dominance, but the loss of one or both houses would represent a significant setback. This will spur action. On the other hand, the prospect of the elections will inhibit actions that risk negatively impacting public opinion, which could have consequences, for example, in the trade dispute with China due to the potential repercussions in terms of consumer prices.

In this respect, the 2025 figures have highlighted Beijing’s resilience to U.S. pressure, primarily due to its control of strategic raw materials. Consequently, Washington has had to scale back its trade offensive. The year 2026 will offer clarity on this new balance of power.

In parallel, both countries will pursue efforts to consolidate their own strength. The U.S. is processing an extraordinary military budget approaching $1 trillion, and its companies are investing wildly in the AI race. China is making powerful strides in its program to achieve pioneering capabilities and greater independence in key technological sectors. Both, of course, face difficulties, from the risk of a bursting bubble in the U.S. AI sector to the persistent problem of weak domestic consumption in China.

Competition in international relations will likely remain fierce. Washington is brazenly pursuing interference in other democracies. This interference takes many forms, including, but not limited to, manipulating public debate through digital platforms. The bailout offered to Javier Milei’s Argentina on the eve of elections points to a wide range of options. Nothing seems off the table, not even maneuvers around Europe’s most sensitive flank: security. Several points of tension characterize the transatlantic relationship, from trade to technology and defense spending. But the nuclear issue represents Europe’s dependence on the American security umbrella. Many Europeans fear losing it abruptly, and this also constrains them on other fronts.

China, for its part, is trying to build its global projection network not through formal alliances — as the U.S. did — but through investments or less rigid groupings, such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), both of which are currently expanding. Washington is poised to counter these moves in the Americas, attempting to assert a sphere of influence that does not allow for the strategic presence of others. China also seems unhappy with the U.S. projection in its region, which, incidentally, is the most dynamic in the world economically and the one where the most dangerous conflict of this century could erupt, centered around Taiwan. Beijing is achieving some success in these international maneuvers, as was seen at the end of the summer when an SCO summit and a military parade drew dozens of leaders to China, including the prime minister of India, who, after sanctions imposed by the U.S., made an eloquent gesture to reach out to its Asian arch-rival.

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Argentina

Meat Is At The Heart Of The Disputes Over The EU-Mercosur Agreement

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Beef is a staple food in Argentina. It’s the jewel with which local cuisine seduces tourists and the star of the asado, the culinary ritual that brings families and friends together around a grill whenever possible. In 2025, each Argentine citizen ate, on average, 49 kilos of beef, more than 10 times the consumption in Spain. Argentina’s cattle ranchers, who allocate less than 25% of their production to exports, defend the local product and try to downplay the protests and boycott threats coming from across the Atlantic over the tariff reductions planned under the Mercosur-European Union (EU) agreement, which will be signed this Saturday in Asunción.

At the Cañuelas Livestock Market (MAC), the largest in Argentina, between 5,000 and 10,000 head of cattle arrive daily and are sold to meatpacking plants that then distribute them throughout the country. The price set there serves as the benchmark for all other livestock transactions in Argentina. In the MAC’s corridors, amidst the ringing of bells signaling the start of auctions by consignees, an unprecedented optimism is palpable this week. The reason is the record price of steers, close to $3 per kilo, and the more than $5.20 paid internationally per kilo of carcass weight, the highest value in decades. Looking ahead, the sector sees a clear horizon, with the EU as a market poised for renewed growth in the coming years.

Argentina exports 29,000 tons of beef annually to the EU under the Hilton quota, which carries a 20% tariff, and an additional 12,000 tons without tariff benefits. If the Mercosur agreement comes into effect, the tariff on the Hilton quota would be eliminated, and a new quota of 99,000 tons carcass weight — to be divided among the four Mercosur countries: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay — would be subject to a 7.5% tariff. “Argentina won’t export much more than it already does to the EU, but it will do so with lower tariffs,” says agricultural consultant Víctor Tonelli, who believes that, given the small volume, it will have little impact on Europe. “If you divide it per capita, it’s like a small hamburger a year,” he explains.

European farmers have protested with tractors in the streets of Brussels and other cities across the continent against the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. News has also emerged that some French supermarkets, including the giant Carrefour, will not sell meat from Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay in their French stores. “We’ve seen the tractors in the streets, but I think the protests related to the opening of Mercosur aren’t against the meat being imported. I think they’re more ideological, against EU politicians for the numerous restrictions they’ve imposed on their own farmers, who are now protesting to see what they can get out of it,” says Tonelli.

This consultant points out that Argentina’s producers have also suffered from local policies. He shares the prevailing view in the sector that the domestic price controls and export taxes imposed by the former Kirchner administration in Argentina were one of the main reasons for the loss of more than seven million head of cattle in a decade, bringing the total to the current 51 million.

The president of MAC, Carlos Colombo, agrees and believes there is a lack of understanding about the true scope of the creation of the world’s largest meat trade zone, with some 720 million potential consumers, should it materialize. “The biggest misconception is that in Europe people fear that South America is going to flood them with meat, and that’s not the case,” says Colombo. It’s Wednesday, and only 5,222 head of cattle have entered the MAC, less than half the number from the day before. “We have a very small stock; we have to work hard to rebuild it and to be able to meet the requirements for exporting to the EU,” adds the owner of the consignment company Colombo y Magliano, founded 87 years ago.

“For years, the prevailing theory was that meat should be free for Argentinians, and if the price went up, the producer was blamed,” Colombo criticizes, referring to the price control policies implemented by the Kirchner administration and later eliminated by Javier Milei. In 2025, the price of beef increased by 70% in the local market, more than double the inflation rate of 31.5%.

Among the requirements for Argentine beef exported to Europe under the Hilton quota is that the animals be grass-fed in open fields, not kept in feedlots. It also must not come from deforested land and must meet the same sanitary standards required of local producers. Consultant Víctor Tonelli points out that only 35 of the 340 meatpacking plants across Argentina are authorized to export to the EU. “Those authorized to export to the EU are practically authorized to export to any destination in the world,” he emphasizes.

The EU is the highest-value market for Argentine beef, and only the best cuts are imported, such as ribeye and ribeye steak. “We can’t import bone-in meat, so we can’t compete with the Galician ribeye,” Tonelli explains. In terms of volume, however, beef exports to the EU market have fallen far behind the main destination, China, which receives more than 400,000 tons from Argentina each year. Cattle ranchers are optimistic about the new opportunities offered by the Mercosur agreement. In case it stalls again before coming into effect, they are continuing to explore other markets, such as the United States.

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Meloni Desbloquea El Acuerdo Con Mercosur: Del Freno Político Al Sí Con Condiciones

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El sí de Italia al tratado de libre comercio con Mercosur —in extremis, en la recta final de unas negociaciones que han durado más de un cuarto de siglo— ha sido fundamental para allanar el camino para la firma oficial del pacto en Paraguay, el próximo 17 de enero. Roma, bajo el liderazgo de la ultraderechista Giorgia Meloni, ha pasado de ser un actor reticente a convertirse en una de las piezas clave para desbloquear el consenso europeo hacia la creación de la mayor zona de libre comercio del mundo, con un potencial de más de 720 millones de consumidores. Firmarán el acuerdo los 27 países de la Unión Europea con cuatro países de América del Sur (Brasil, Argentina, Uruguay y Paraguay).

El visto bueno de Meloni estaba condicionado a la obtención de garantías europeas clave para el sector agrícola italiano, como la creación de un mecanismo de protección para los productos sensibles, un fondo de compensación ante posibles desequilibrios del mercado, un refuerzo de los controles fitosanitarios en las fronteras europeas, la reorganización del gasto de los fondos de la Política Agrícola Común (PAC) o el bloqueo de los precios de los fertilizantes. Aunque, tal y como ha explicado la primera ministra, Italia sigue viendo con recelos el acuerdo comercial con el bloque sudamericano y ha advertido de que permanecerá “en alerta” y vigilará de cerca que se cumplan los compromisos alcanzados. “No podíamos decir sí al Mercosur en detrimento de la excelencia de nuestros productos”, explicó Meloni el viernes en su rueda de prensa anual. Y agregó: “Siempre hemos dicho que estamos a favor del pacto, pero solo cuando haya garantías suficientes para nuestros agricultores. A la luz de las garantías que hemos conseguido, hemos dado nuestro apoyo al acuerdo”.

El Gobierno italiano recuerda que no es un apoyo sin reservas, sino que está sujeto a que las salvaguardias funcionen de verdad, no solo sobre el papel. E insiste: no basta con promesas; exigen “controles estrictos” y cumplimiento riguroso de los estándares sanitarios y fitosanitarios para que los productos importados no entren en competencia desleal con la producción nacional.

Giorgia Meloni, además, ha enmarcado el debate dentro de una reflexión más amplia sobre la política comercial de la UE. A su juicio, el problema no es optar simplemente por el libre comercio o el proteccionismo, sino la contradicción de imponer normas cada vez más estrictas dentro del mercado europeo mientras se firman acuerdos con socios que operan bajo marcos regulatorios mucho menos exigentes. “Esto podría ser suicida”, ha advertido la primera ministra italiana. Y ha aclarado que su gobierno es favorable a los acuerdos de libre comercio, pero acompañados de una revisión de las cargas regulatorias internas.

Durante buena parte del proceso de negociación con Mercosur, sobre todo en los últimos tiempos, el Gobierno italiano ha mantenido una posición de cautela, escéptica en ocasiones, alineada con las preocupaciones de su sector agrícola y de la industria alimentaria, que tienen un gran peso en el país transalpino tanto desde el punto de vista económico como cultural. Roma advertía de que una apertura rápida del mercado podría incrementar la competencia de productos sudamericanos con menores costes y estándares diferentes, lo que afectaría especialmente a ganaderos y productores de bienes con denominación de origen.

Sin embargo, lejos de limitarse al “no” político, Meloni optó por una estrategia de negociación que consistía en condicionar el apoyo italiano a la incorporación en el pacto de determinadas exigencias para tutelar la producción nacional.

Esta postura, que en parte han compartido otros socios como Francia, aumentó la presión política en Bruselas y forzó a la Comisión Europea a revisar algunos capítulos del principio de acuerdo.

Papel de bisagra

En lugar de ejercer un veto frontal, Roma se decantó por utilizar su peso político para sentarse a la mesa y modificar el contenido del acuerdo. Su sí final permitió alcanzar la mayoría cualificada de Estados miembros necesaria para respaldar el acuerdo comercial con el bloque sudamericano. Meloni ha desempeñado un papel clave de bisagra y ha transformado las reservas italianas en capacidad de influencia en Europa. Su estrategia ha permitido obtener concesiones relevantes para la agricultura europea y, al mismo tiempo, desbloquear un acuerdo importante para la economía y la geopolítica de la Unión Europea.

El resultado de las negociaciones ha sido un paquete de compromisos que ha permitido a Italia levantar su resistencia y, tras ese giro, dejar a Francia como el principal gran país en minoría dentro del bloque crítico con el acuerdo con Mercosur.

Entre las concesiones que reclamaba Italia se encuentran las medidas para abaratar abonos y fertilizantes suspendiendo temporalmente aranceles a las importaciones de estos productos; la implantación de mecanismos de emergencia para frenar las importaciones si algunos mercados agrícolas y ganaderos, como el de la carne o los lácteos, sufren perturbaciones graves cuando entre en vigor el pacto; una mayor exigencia en estándares sanitarios, fitosanitarios y medioambientales, con procedimientos de control más estrictos para los productos importados; o el compromiso de destinar recursos financieros a compensar a productores eventualmente afectados por la apertura del mercado, para garantizar un “colchón” financiero ante el posible impacto de las importaciones sudamericanas. A esto se suma el adelanto y refuerzo de pagos de la PAC, a partir de 2028, para los agricultores.

“Italia ha conseguido que la agricultura y los agricultores vuelvan a ser el centro del debate tanto en Italia como en la Unión Europea. Hoy vuelven a ser reconocidos como guardianes del territorio y del medio ambiente, y garantes de nuestra soberanía y seguridad alimentaria”, ha celebrado el ministro italiano de Agricultura y Soberanía Alimentaria, Francesco Lollobrigida. Y ha insistido en la necesidad de garantizar el “principio de reciprocidad”, que según él “debe aplicarse a todos los intercambios comerciales con terceros países”, no solo con Mercosur. “Jugar con las mismas reglas es la base de la competitividad de nuestras empresas”, ha apuntado el ministro.

Para Meloni, estas garantías han resultado clave para presentar el acuerdo como un compromiso equilibrado entre apertura comercial y protección de la producción nacional. Sin el giro italiano, el pacto difícilmente habría reunido el respaldo de los países y el peso demográfico necesarios para superar la oposición de otros Estados como Francia, Polonia, Hungría o Irlanda.

Una recepción con escepticismo

En Italia, la adhesión a última hora de Meloni al acuerdo no ha sido recibida con particular entusiasmo, ni dentro de la coalición de Gobierno, ni en la oposición, ni tampoco por los agricultores, que se quejan del riesgo de consolidar “una evidente asimetría”. “Mientras que a las empresas agrícolas italianas y europeas se les exige el cumplimiento de normas muy estrictas en materia de sostenibilidad medioambiental, seguridad alimentaria y derechos de los trabajadores, las mismas normas no se aplican a las importaciones procedentes de los países del Mercosur (Brasil, Argentina, Uruguay y Paraguay)”, ha señalado Confagricoltura, una de las principales asociaciones de agricultores del país transalpino.

La Liga de Matteo Salvini, socio de Meloni en el Gobierno, ha anunciado que mantendrá su histórica posición contraria al acuerdo. “No vamos a derrocar al Gobierno por esto, pero nuestro no es rotundo, por nuestra parte hay una gran insatisfacción”, ha señalado el senador de la Liga y exministro de Agricultura Gian Marco Centinaio, que se ha manifestado junto a los agricultores en las calles de Milán.

Algunos partidos de la oposición, como el Partido Democrático, acusan al gobierno de convertir la negociación en un logro político, pero sin garantías suficientes para la industria y los sectores vulnerables.

En cambio, gran parte de las organizaciones industriales y manufactureras como Confindustria han mostrado su satisfacción por la aprobación del acuerdo. También lo han aplaudido varias voces del sector agroalimentario, especialmente del mundo vitivinícola.

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The Feminist AI Movement Growing In Latin America

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A video created with artificial intelligence (AI) went viral on social media in July 2025, promoted by accounts affiliated with the party of Argentine President Javier Milei. It featured fabricated images of Argentine journalist Julia Mengolini and her brother, depicting an alleged incestuous relationship. She filed a lawsuit and recounted the impact this violence had and continues to have on her life. These deepfakes with violent intentions are spreading now more than ever with the use of AI.

Since last year, I’ve been wondering what we’re doing about it. I started a survey, which I keep updating, on how feminist activists, professionals, and organizations in Latin America are using AI. There’s violence, but there’s also action. Here are some examples.

First, let’s provide some context. I asked Graciela Natansohn, a researcher in feminism and communication at the Federal University of Bahia, Brazil, what feminist AI is. “It doesn’t mean AI by and for women, although in many cases that can be desirable and useful, but it’s something bigger. Feminist AI for colonized territories like Latin America and the Caribbean is a technology that protects and promotes local ways of life, that respects the time and territory of the communities it serves, that includes the perspectives of everyone in the decisions made, and that serves no other purpose than those determined by that community,” she replied.

Mailén García, director of DataGénero, also contributed: “We understand feminist AI as a political, technical and ethical approach that seeks to profoundly transform the way in which AI systems are produced, implemented and governed.”

We know that data and algorithms are not neutral, which is why García emphasized that feminist AI “is not limited to correcting obvious biases, but proposes to review and reimagine the entire life cycle of technology so that it contributes to social justice, gender equality, and environmental sustainability.”

Entangled in AI

A characteristic of Latin American feminism, historically, is its networking. Following this tradition, the newly formed Feminist AI Network in Latin America and the Caribbean is underway. Its first action was to convene those developing projects in the region. And it was a success. They received 129 proposals, 50 of which were selected. Of these, 25 are in the seed stage, 19 are prototype, six are in the pilot stage, and four moved from prototype to seed stage. Finally, 10 projects will be selected to continue their development.

The network is supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) of Canada, which had already promoted other experiences between 2021 and 2024, and from where this new regional initiative arises.

Feminist AI “promotes a public purpose for technology: it must expand rights, improve policies, strengthen institutions, and produce knowledge that benefits society. This vision translates into projects like AymurAI, aimed at opening up information, strengthening access to justice, and producing evidence to transform public policies,” explained García, who is one of the members of the network and one of the creators of the software that anonymizes documents, collects, and makes available data from court rulings.

There are two more experiences in Argentina in the judicial field, but they take place within the ChatGPT field. One is Arvage AI, developed by Judge Rita Custet to apply a gender perspective to legal analysis, and the other is SofIA, by lawyer Ana Correa, who presents it as a tool that “detects gender biases and proposes alternatives that take into account the history and data involving women and LGBTQ+ people.”

From Brazil, Natansohn adds to this journey of Latin American feminist AI Nhandeflix (which means “our flix”) which operates on its own intranet and is a multimedia application developed by Guarani communities in São Paulo, which is accessible by Wi-Fi in the communities where — in addition to a messaging service — movies, audios and all kinds of files are made available “preserving and strengthening the Guarani language, culture, and spirituality”.

The AzMina Institute, for its part, created QuitérIA, an AI that “monitors legislative proposals in the Brazilian Congress, in relation to the rights of children, women, and LGBTQ+ people.”

“Avoiding data extraction and the use of data centers is a feminist principle in AI, although there is a diversity of perspectives on what might or might not be considered feminist,” the researcher shared from Bahía Blanca. “This is the case with the Plinq platform, which allows women to check if the men they are dating have criminal records or histories of violence. This is done with public data, which limits its reach (stealthy processes go undetected), and, furthermore, the service is paid and does not use open-source and auditable software. It is a start-up, an individual commercial venture.”

There’s another project I’m familiar with because I’m involved in it: Narratives of Femicide. It’s a participatory research project where we read and annotate news stories published in Latin America to create a repository of harmful and constructive journalistic practices in femicide coverage. With this dataset, the idea is to design potential AI tools to support feminist and contextualized news production. It’s an initiative of Data Against Femicide in collaboration with the Data in Society Collective (DISCO Lab) at Brown University in the United States.

Regarding gender-based violence, there are AI-powered initiatives such as Sof+IA from Chile, which identifies as a Feminist Listening System that provides guidance in situations of abuse, and OlimpIA, a platform that offers free support, guaranteeing anonymity to women who are victims of online harassment. It is named after Olimpia Coral Melo, a driving force behind legislation throughout the region to prevent and punish digital violence. Notably, it was developed by survivors.

In the regulatory sphere, the Committee of Experts of the Follow-up Mechanism to the Belém do Pará Convention (MESECVI) of the Organization of American States (OAS), recently presented in Brazil the Inter-American Model Law to confront digital violence against women, which has articles related to AI.

Democratic governance of AI is another central focus for feminists, “where decisions are made with participation, based on criteria of social and environmental justice, and with regulations that distribute power equitably. The ethics of care accompany the entire process: protecting privacy, ensuring digital security, reducing risks for vulnerable communities, and minimizing the ecological impact of technological infrastructures,” García summarized.

And she emphasized: “It’s not AI for AI’s sake. That is, we also consider when it makes sense, what benefits it will bring, and what drawbacks.” The process is underway, and it’s important to support them.

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