Estate agents expect a cooler market but higher prices in the second half

Industry insiders expect the Spanish housing market to cool in the second half, but with prices continuing to rise.

A new survey of more than 400 estate agents by mortgage lender UCI and the Spanish International Realty Alliance (SIRA) suggests the market will remain resilient in the second half of the year, but at a more subdued pace than the exceptional conditions seen recently.

The headline finding is that agents expect home sales to fall by around 3.2% compared with the same period last year. Rental activity is expected to weaken even more, with a projected decline of 7.1%, while new mortgage lending could slip by around 2% if geopolitical uncertainty keeps pressure on interest rates.

Prices expected to keep rising despite slower activity

That said, estate agents don’t expect prices to follow transactions lower. The survey forecasts average house prices will rise by around 3% this year, while rents could increase by about 5%. Those estimates are more restrained than in the previous edition of the survey, but they still point to continued upward pressure on prices.

The reason is familiar enough: demand continues to outstrip supply across much of Spain, particularly in major cities, economically dynamic regions, and destinations popular with international buyers. Although around two-thirds of agents say the supply of homes has stabilised or even increased, they clearly don’t believe it will be enough to rebalance the market any time soon.

Confidence turns down

The survey also reveals that confidence within the industry has eased. Agents are less optimistic about transaction volumes than they were six months ago, and their overall outlook for the market has fallen for the fourth consecutive survey. Even so, they still rate prospects for 2026 at a respectable 6.4 out of 10.

Should buyers and sellers take these forecasts seriously? Probably, but not as gospel. Estate agents are on the front line of the housing market and often spot changes in sentiment before they appear in the official statistics. On the other hand, they don’t have a crystal ball, and markets can change direction quickly when economic or political conditions shift. Furthermore, their professional bias can show up in the surveys, in which agents never say that prices will fall.

As it happens, the latest data is in line with agent forecasts for the second half, at least in broad terms of direction. Sales fell by 8% in Q1, whilst prices rose by 7%, according to the notaries’ association.

Overall, the message from industry insiders is straightforward: expect a calmer market than last year, but don’t expect house prices to go down. As long as the supply of homes remains constrained, prices are likely to keep edging higher even if transaction volumes lose momentum.