Farmers still have to cover the costs involved in growing the crop even when fewer potatoes are produced. Photo credit: PHILIPPE MONTIGNY / Shutterstock.com
The humble potato could become more expensive this autumn after France’s extreme summer weather wiped out almost a quarter of its expected crop, with the fallout potentially reaching supermarkets and farmers across Europe. French growers are forecasting a 23 per cent drop in production, equivalent to around two million tonnes fewer potatoes than last year.
The scale of the loss could put pressure on European supplies at a time when farmers are already dealing with increasingly difficult growing conditions. For Spanish potato producers, however, France’s losses could bring an unexpected change after a year of low prices caused by abundant European supplies.
France’s crop takes a huge hit
Five periods of extreme heat combined with an exceptional lack of water have left French potato fields badly affected. The National Union of Potato Producers (UNPT) expects the average yield for table potatoes to fall to 37.4 tonnes per hectare, compared with 43.5 tonnes in 2025. That would make 2026 one of France’s worst potato-growing years in more than three decades, with the yield only beaten for severity by the drought-hit 2022 season.
The reduction is particularly serious because French growers had already planted less land this year following a difficult 2025 season marked by oversupply and weak prices. Potato acreage across the main north-west European producing countries had also been cut substantially. Now farmers are dealing with a smaller planted area and much lower yields.
Heat has damaged more than the harvest
The weather has affected the potatoes themselves, not simply the final quantity, extreme temperatures and dry soil can restrict tuber development, leaving potatoes smaller and affecting their suitability for particular markets. That creates problems for growers supplying food processors, which buy potatoes according to specific size and quality requirements.
Some farmers could therefore find themselves unable to deliver the quantities agreed in their contracts. The UNPT wants contracted volumes to be adjusted to reflect what growers can actually produce, rather than leaving farmers facing additional costs because the weather has reduced their harvest.
€400 million in losses
The financial consequences are already being counted, the UNPT estimates that French potato growers could suffer at least €400 million in losses as a result of the failed harvest and is calling for exceptional support.
Farmers still have to cover the costs involved in growing the crop even when fewer potatoes are produced, while those supplying processors face the added difficulty of meeting contracts. The organisation has warned that growers should not be left to carry the economic consequences of the extreme weather alone.
A summer the potatoes could not withstand
France’s potato crisis comes after an extraordinary run of weather. The country endured repeated heatwaves and severe water shortages, with July particularly brutal for agriculture. The prolonged combination of heat and dry conditions has affected crops across France, with potato producers among those now seeing the consequences in their fields.
The problem is not isolated to France either, potato-growing areas across north-western Europe have been dealing with reduced planting and worsening drought conditions, while EU crop monitoring has forecast potato yields across the bloc at 6 per cent below the five-year average. France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands also form part of Europe’s major potato-producing belt, if several major producers harvest less at the same time, there are fewer alternative supplies available when buyers start looking for potatoes.
Spain could benefit
Spanish growers entered this season from a very different position, abundant European production last year contributed to weak potato prices, leaving farmers struggling with a market where supply was plentiful. France’s expected 23 per cent fall could change that balance.
A tighter European supply could increase demand for potatoes from other producing countries, including Spain, potentially giving Spanish growers some relief from the low prices that have affected them. It is too early to predict how much Spanish prices could rise. The final French harvest has not yet been collected, and production elsewhere will determine how much potato is actually available. But France’s projected loss is large enough to alter the European market.
What happens next
The 23 per cent figure is still a forecast, and the final size of the French crop will only become clear as harvesting progresses. For growers, the immediate priority is getting what remains of the crop out of the ground and establishing how much can actually be sold.
For consumers, the important question will be whether the reduced French supply is absorbed elsewhere in Europe or eventually feeds through into tighter availability and higher prices. After a year when European farmers were struggling with too many potatoes and prices that were too low, France is now heading into an autumn with the opposite problem. The fields will determine just how serious that shortage becomes
ElPais2 weeks ago