The global impact of the war in Iran has caused the average price of gasoline in the United States to rise above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Since late February, when the conflict began, prices have risen by more than 30%, reflecting an energy shock that is already affecting not only drivers but the entire economy.
The main trigger has been the disruption in the global oil supply, particularly due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route through which nearly 20% of the world’s crude oil normally flows. The drop in maritime traffic, attacks on extraction and storage infrastructure, and uncertainty about the conflict’s duration have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, rapidly passing that increase on to gas stations that sell refined fuel derived from oil.
Against this backdrop, several key questions arise.
Why are gas prices rising?
The increase is mainly due to global factors. Although the United States produces more oil than it consumes, domestic prices continue to depend on the international market.
When global supply shrinks or becomes uncertain — as is the case due to the war in Iran — crude oil prices rise, and with them, gas prices. In addition, there is a lag: prices at the pump typically react days after changes in oil prices, suggesting that there could still be further increases.
Seasonal demand, such as spring travel, also plays a role, as does the rising cost of diesel, which has already surpassed $5 per gallon and is affecting freight transport.
If the US produces oil, why is it vulnerable to global crises?
Although the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, it is not entirely self-sufficient in terms of refining.
Much of the oil it produces is light, while many refineries are designed to process heavy crude, which is imported mainly from Canada and Mexico. Adapting the infrastructure to use only domestic oil would cost billions of dollars and take decades.
For this reason, even without directly depending on oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. market remains vulnerable to any global disruption.
How high could prices go?
Forecasts suggest that prices could continue to rise if the conflict drags on.
Analysts estimate that for every $10 increase in the price per barrel, gasoline could rise by 10 to 40 cents per gallon. In more extreme scenarios, if the war intensifies or supply remains restricted, oil could reach $200 per barrel, which would push gasoline prices up to $7 per gallon. Even in more moderate scenarios, there are already warnings that prices could approach or exceed $5 in the short term.
Why do prices vary so much from state to state?
Not all drivers pay the same for gasoline. In states like California, the price is around $5.80 per gallon, while in other regions it remains below $3.50.
These differences are due to several factors: state taxes, transportation costs, access to refineries, environmental regulations, and local market conditions. For example, California uses a special, more expensive blend of gasoline and has higher taxes, which significantly raises the final price.
What impact does diesel have on the economy?
Diesel plays a key role because it powers trucks, trains, and farm machinery. Its price increase — more than 40% since the start of the war — could be passed on to the prices of food, shipping, and goods in general.
Economists warn that this ripple effect could drive inflation in the coming months, making everything from basic goods to services more expensive.
Does lowering gas taxes help?
In response to rising prices, some states have considered temporarily suspending fuel taxes. However, evidence suggests that the impact on consumers could be limited.
This is because the final price depends on multiple factors, such as the cost of oil and distribution margins. Furthermore, eliminating these taxes means less revenue for infrastructure, such as roads and bridges. For this reason, some governments consider the measure to be ineffective in addressing a global problem.
What might happen in the coming months?
The future of prices depends almost entirely on how the conflict unfolds. If the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, prices could stabilize or even fall toward the end of the year.
However, if the war drags on or intensifies, the energy market will remain under pressure. In that scenario, consumers could face not only higher gas prices but also a general increase in the cost of living.
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