Early results from California’s primary elections indicate that the Democrat Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, a Republican, will face off for the governorship of the nation’s most populous state in a November runoff. Both candidates emerged from a tight contest that will shape the state’s political direction after the departure of Governor Gavin Newsom, one of the most visible opponents of President Donald Trump. Since 2011, California has been under Democratic control and has become a laboratory for progressive policies that often clash with the White House agenda.
With roughly 55% of votes counted in the slow California tally, Hilton was just ahead of Becerra with 27.6% and 25.5% respectively, and are poised to be the two candidates most likely to advance to the November 3 election. There were 61 candidates on the ballot. Under the system known as the jungle primary or open primary, only the two contenders with the most votes move on to the next round, regardless of party affiliation.
Trump’s influence was evident in this election: through his platform Truth Social he urged his followers on Tuesday to vote for Hilton. “He will work with me and the Federal Government, the money will flow because I have confidence in him (but not any of the others!), and we will MAKE CALIFORNIA GREAT AGAIN,” the president wrote. Vice President J. D. Vance also joined in praising the candidate, stressing that the state needs better political leadership.
This is being described as the most expensive governor’s race in U.S. history, surpassing $315 million in spending, most of it on advertising, according to data compiled by AdImpact. The total swelled after the billionaire Tom Steyer, who founded one of San Francisco’s largest investment firms, poured more than $200 million of his own money into the campaign. But it was not enough to secure the Democratic bid, and he now appears set to finish third with just under 20% of the vote.
A Becerra win in November would signal continuity in the confrontational approach toward Trump that marked Newsom’s tenure. A victory for Hilton, by contrast, would signal a turn toward a conservative agenda aligned with the president’s priorities on immigration, public safety, the economy and government regulation.
With backing from Trump and the Republican Party apparatus, Hilton has pledged to turn the state red again. The former political commentator broke through in the race on two promises: revive an economy strained by rising living costs and toughen public safety measures, while also supporting operations by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Hilton began his political career in Britain, where he was born. He had ties to the Conservative Party during the Margaret Thatcher era, moved to California in 2012 and started a career as a Fox News host. His plan, in his own style, is to repeat the feat of another immigrant who became governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Since the movie star left office at the end of his second term in January 2011, no other Republican has held the post.
Becerra, for his part, seeks to become California’s first Hispanic governor in more than a century. The son of Mexican immigrants and a former secretary of Health in the Joe Biden administration, he has centered his campaign on defending the “California way of life,” protecting immigrants and expanding social programs that, he says, were undermined by policies pursued under Trump. Becerra has a 35-year political career that includes service in the state Assembly, the U.S. Congress and as California’s attorney general. He highlights as an achievement the fact that, with more than 120 lawsuits, he restrained Trump during his first term and proposes to repeat that strategy.
The outcome of the November midterms could have repercussions beyond the state’s borders and influence the Democratic strategy heading into the 2028 presidential contest. Outgoing Governor Newsom continues to signal a possible run for the White House.
During Trump’s first term (2017–2021), California positioned itself as the main center of resistance on issues such as immigration, climate change, reproductive rights and social justice. Although it remains one of the most favorable territories for the Democratic Party, Republican influence has grown in recent years: California was the third-largest state for Trump in 2024 (six million votes), behind only Texas and Florida.
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