A lot of people across Spain have already started saying the same thing lately : ‘We’re still in May… so how is it already this hot?’

After weeks of unusually high temperatures, packed terraces and heavy afternoons that already feel closer to July than spring, forecasters now believe summer 2026 could become even tougher than many people expected.

According to the latest outlook discussed by Meteored climatologist Samuel Biener, Spain is likely heading towards a warmer than normal summer across much of the country, with temperatures in some areas potentially ending up between 1.5 and 3 degrees above seasonal averages.

And while the heat itself is already making people nervous, meteorologists are also watching another problem developing quietly in the background : Storms.

Not the kind of long rainy periods people sometimes hope for during hot weather either.

Instead, forecasters believe parts of Spain could see a more unstable summer with sudden storms, hail and violent downpours becoming more frequent in some regions.

Honestly, after the strange weather swings Spain has already experienced this spring, the forecast does not feel particularly shocking anymore. Because for many people, it already feels like summer arrived far too early.

Why forecasters think this summer may feel especially exhausting

The latest seasonal models used by Meteored continue pointing towards persistent warmth across large parts of the country during the coming months.

Central Spain appears especially exposed. Areas including Madrid, Castilla La Mancha, Castilla y León and Extremadura could see some of the strongest temperature anomalies compared with what would normally be expected during summer.

And people living in those areas already know what that can mean in practice :

• Very hot nights.
• Heavy air sitting inside apartments long after sunset.
• Cities that barely cool down properly even at midnight.

That is often the moment when summer starts becoming physically draining rather than simply pleasant.

Especially during long heat episodes. Meteorologists are still being careful not to officially predict specific heatwaves this far in advance because seasonal forecasting always contains uncertainty. But Samuel Biener openly admits that recent years clearly show an increasing tendency towards periods of extreme heat in Spain.

And honestly, most residents no longer need scientific charts to notice the difference.

People feel it already, air conditioning starts earlier, fans come out sooner and afternoons become harder to tolerate much faster than they used to.

In some southern cities, people are already adjusting routines before June has even started, avoiding the streets during the hottest hours because temperatures suddenly feel far more aggressive than expected for this time of year.

Storms could become one of the biggest problems this summer too

What makes this forecast more complicated is that meteorologists are not only talking about heat. Several regions could also experience more storm activity than usual during the coming months.

According to Meteored’s current projections, the Pyrenees, Mediterranean side of Spain, southern Iberian mountain areas and even the Canary Islands may end up seeing more unstable conditions over the summer period.

Of course, forecasting storms months ahead is difficult.

Rainfall is one of the hardest things for meteorologists to predict accurately over long periods because storm systems depend on many rapidly changing atmospheric factors.

Still, forecasters say the current signal for instability is becoming increasingly noticeable in some areas.

And honestly, many people across Spain already feel like summer storms have changed over recent years.

They often arrive faster, more violently and sometimes with almost tropical intensity.

A normal sunny afternoon can suddenly turn into hail, violent wind and flooded streets within less than an hour.

That pattern has already appeared several times this spring. Especially after days of trapped heat build up.

The heat keeps building quietly in the background until the atmosphere suddenly snaps.

Lightning starts flashing across the sky, huge drops of rain begin hammering the ground and violent gusts arrive almost without warning.

Then come the short but intense storms that can turn streets chaotic within minutes before disappearing again almost as quickly as they arrived.

Meteorologists believe similar situations could repeat this summer if current conditions continue developing the way models currently suggest.

Many people in Spain are already dreading another difficult summer

For tourists, headlines about hot weather in Spain often sound attractive. For many residents, the reality feels more complicated now. Because extremely hot summers no longer simply mean beach weather.

They increasingly affect daily life in exhausting ways. Electricity bills rise sharply because air conditioning runs almost constantly. Sleeping becomes difficult during tropical nights.

Older buildings trap heat for days. Outdoor workers struggle during afternoon hours and drought concerns quickly return every time rain disappears for long periods.

That growing discomfort is one reason seasonal forecasts now attract far more attention than they used to. People genuinely want to know what kind of summer may be coming. Especially after several years where heat records across Spain have repeatedly fallen earlier and earlier.

Experts say Spain’s summer temperatures cannot simply be explained by El Niño alone

According to Meteored, European weather patterns depend heavily on other atmospheric factors too, including the behaviour of the polar jet stream.

Still, whatever the technical explanation behind it, the feeling many people have across Spain is becoming increasingly similar every year.

A lot of people across Spain now have the same feeling every year.

Summer seems to start earlier than expected, the heat hangs around for much longer and storms often feel far more aggressive than they used to. Even the nights no longer cool down properly in many parts of the country.

For now, forecasters are still stressing that long range models can evolve over the coming weeks. But after the temperatures Spain has already experienced before June has even started, many residents are already looking ahead towards July and August with a certain amount of concern.

Because if late May already feels like this, people are starting to wonder what the middle of summer might look like.

A lot of people across Spain are looking outside right now and thinking the same thing : It feels like July arrived a month early.

The heat has become intense surprisingly fast, terraces are already packed in many cities and temperatures in some areas are moving dangerously close to 40C even though summer has not officially started yet.

But meteorologists are now warning that the real danger this week may not actually come from the heat alone. Because while Spain bakes under unusually high temperatures, the atmosphere is also becoming increasingly unstable and that combination is creating the risk of violent dry storms capable of producing lightning, giant hail and sudden destructive wind bursts.

And what makes these storms particularly dangerous is how fast they can develop.

In some places, skies may stay bright and calm for most of the day before conditions suddenly turn aggressive within less than an hour.

AEMET has already activated warnings across multiple regions as forecasters monitor what could become one of the most unstable weather setups Spain has seen so far this year.

Why meteorologists are becoming increasingly worried about these storms

Normally when people hear the word storm, they imagine heavy rain first. But this situation is different.

According to weather experts, some of the strongest storm cells expected this week may actually produce very little rainfall while still generating dangerous conditions on the ground. That is why forecasters keep talking about ‘dry storms’.

The main risks come from lightning activity, hail and powerful downdrafts of wind known in Spain as ‘reventones’.

And honestly, these wind bursts can become extremely nasty very quickly.

They can suddenly hit with enough force to bring down branches, damage terraces, move outdoor furniture and create dangerous driving conditions within minutes.

Meteorologists say gusts could exceed 70 or even 80 kilometres per hour in some areas, particularly across inland northern Spain.

The unstable conditions are developing because extremely warm air near the surface is colliding with disturbances arriving higher up in the atmosphere.

Once temperatures climb during the afternoon, clouds can suddenly grow very aggressively. And after several days of heat building up across the country, the atmosphere now contains enough energy for storms to intensify rapidly.

That is exactly why forecasters are watching the situation so closely.

These parts of Spain are facing the highest risk this week

Northern Spain currently appears most exposed to the strongest instability. The Basque Country is under particular attention after AEMET issued an orange alert for Vizcaya where temperatures could approach 37C in lower inland areas.

Across the rest of the region, yellow alerts remain active as temperatures continue climbing well above what would normally be expected for late May. Asturias and Cantabria are also facing a complicated mix of heat and storms.

Both regions are under warnings for high temperatures alongside the possibility of hail, isolated downpours and violent gusts later in the day.

Galicia is dealing with a similar pattern.

In Ourense, temperatures may rise towards 36C while storm warnings remain active across parts of inland Galicia including Lugo.

Further inland, conditions remain unstable across Castilla y León where provinces such as León, Palencia and Zamora are also being monitored closely for hail and strong winds.

And according to European forecasting models, some hailstones in these areas could exceed two centimetres in diameter.

That may not sound enormous at first, until you remember what hail of that size can actually do.

Car windscreens crack, terrace umbrellas collapse, crops can be destroyed in minutes and people caught outside without shelter can easily get injured.

Elsewhere, the heat itself continues becoming a major issue.

Extremadura could see temperatures reaching 38C while parts of Aragón, Catalonia, Navarra and La Rioja also remain under heat alerts.

Meanwhile in Cádiz province, strong Levante winds continue creating difficult coastal conditions near the Strait.

Spain’s weather could become even more unstable by the weekend

What is making meteorologists cautious is that this situation may not end quickly.

Thursday, May 28,  is expected to bring another similar afternoon pattern with storms developing again in several northern and inland regions, although current forecasts suggest slightly lower intensity compared with Wednesday.

Still, weather experts are warning people not to relax too much. Because the heat itself is not going anywhere for now.

Minimum nighttime temperatures are also expected to rise over the coming days, meaning many areas may struggle to cool down properly overnight.

And looking ahead towards Friday and the weekend, forecasters are already monitoring another disturbance approaching the Iberian Peninsula.

That could trigger a new escalation in storm activity just as the current heat episode continues building. Some models even suggest storms later this week could become more organised and severe in certain areas.

For many people across Spain, the strange part is how deceptive the weather still looks beforehand.

The day often begins completely normally : Blue skies and strong sunshine.

People sitting outside having coffee. Then suddenly the atmosphere shifts. Clouds rapidly build over the mountains, the wind changes, the sky darkens and within minutes, conditions can become genuinely dangerous.

Which is exactly why meteorologists keep insisting people should pay close attention to official warnings over the next few days. Because this week’s weather is not behaving like a normal late spring pattern anymore.

It already feels much closer to the kind of volatile heat Spain usually sees much deeper into summer.

Experts forecast a strong dome of warm air over Spain in the coming days, keeping the temperature gradually rising after an unusually chilly start to May.

Warm air mass heats up late spring conditions

Temperatures across many parts of the country will now reach full-on summer levels. This shift follows a cold snap with readings 6 to 10 degrees below average and mountain snow in northern ranges. A persistent high-pressure ridge blowing up from northwest Africa now covers the Iberian Peninsula and is spreading northeast.

How this heat dome develops

High pressure acts like a lid trapping descending warm air and compressing it near the ground. This pattern pushes subtropical heat northward and builds over several days. Such domes occur more often in summer but bring more extreme conditions when stable.

Effects across key Spanish holiday destinations

Mallorca is experiencing notable rises, with daytime highs climbing steadily toward 30 degrees or more by late week. North Costa Blanca and South Costa Blanca see similar warming, with coastal areas feeling the build-up in humidity and heat, especially the Alicante area, which will see highs of 37ºC around Thursday.

Murcia records sharp increases as the warm air mass settles. Almeria faces potential peaks near 35º in inland spots while sea breezes moderate beach zones slightly. Costa del Sol prepares for intense warmth, especially inland from Malaga toward western stretches, where values may even approach 38ºC.

UK and Western Europe being brutalized by a “heat dome” fueled by dry African desert air, and “contorted” jet stream.

Climate change is the main culprit causing this nearly-unprecedented heat event, otherwise impossible without fossil fuels. pic.twitter.com/2LlFCoU2ER

— Ryan Maue (@RyanWeather) May 24, 2026

Week outlook for southern and eastern coasts

Maximum readings between 35ºC and 40ºC hit inland western Andalucia and Extremadura on Saturday and Sunday. Holiday regions in the east and south register 30ºC to 36ºC with some local patchy cloud.

Night-time temperatures stay warm and limit cooling in coastal zones. Vulnerable groups, including elderly residents and outdoor workers, face higher risks from prolonged heat.

Broader European spread

France is reporting 30 to 36 degrees in southwest areas today. Britain is looking forward to near 30ºC in parts over the weekend with tropical nights around 20ºC minimum. Central Europe and the Mediterranean basin warm markedly through early next week.

Spain maintains focus on this intense late-May heat as the high-pressure system matures. In short, we can look forward to a slightly muggier week ahead, with light breezes and some occasional cloud cover.