The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, the linchpin of the global financial system, underpins trillions of dollars in lending worldwide and serves as the benchmark for pricing money across countless banking and financial transactions. Lately, however, it has become a growing source of concern for investors as yields have climbed amid persistently high inflation and expectations that interest rates will rise further.
For the U.S. government, higher yields translate into a heavier interest burden on its debt. For investors holding Treasuries, they mean falling bond prices and losses on existing investments.
More than a third of all outstanding U.S. government debt is held by foreign investors and central banks. Together, they own $9.32 trillion worth of Treasuries, a figure that illustrates not only how international capital helps finance America’s economic growth and mounting budget deficits, but also how those investments tie Washington to a vast network of overseas creditors.
The recent rise in Treasury yields has highlighted growing concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. public finances. With the national debt having surpassed $40 trillion, the U.S. government must continue issuing new debt to fund its operations and meet an ever-growing interest bill. At the same time, its foreign creditors can ill afford a sharp decline in the value of the Treasury securities they already hold.
The decision announced last week by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund to reduce its exposure to government bonds illustrates that dilemma. The move is expected to involve a roughly $75 billion reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings, although much of that money will remain invested in other U.S. fixed-income assets, such as mortgage-backed securities.
“Foreign investors have accumulated so many Treasuries and U.S. equities that they have as much to lose as Americans in a debt crisis,” said Nadia Gharbi, an economist at Pictet Wealth Management. “One would hope that the official foreign sector — major central banks and sovereign wealth funds — will join forces with the Federal Reserve to stem any threat of a U.S. debt meltdown and a global financial crisis.”
The largest foreign holder of U.S. debt is Japan, which owned $1.11 trillion in Treasuries as of June, according to U.S. Treasury data. That figure is little changed from a year earlier, though it has fallen from $1.23 trillion in January.
These are custody figures, meaning the ultimate owners of the securities are not necessarily Japanese and may include both public and private investors. Even so, Japan’s holdings are particularly significant at a time when yields on Japanese government bonds are also rising, offering domestic investors more attractive alternatives to U.S. debt.
Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond now yields 2.8%, its highest level in three decades and a far cry from the near-zero rates that prevailed for years. For Japanese investors, borrowing in yen to buy higher-yielding U.S. Treasuries has long been a profitable trade. But that calculus could be changing, potentially weakening Japan’s position as America’s largest foreign creditor.
That was part of the backdrop to the unprecedented joint intervention launched by U.S. and Japanese authorities in late July to support the yen. An excessively weak Japanese currency can also destabilize the U.S. bond market if Tokyo is forced to defend it by selling dollar reserves and buying yen.
“A sell Japan can become a sell America,” said Judith Arnal, senior researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute. “If a sharp depreciation of the yen forces Japanese authorities to intervene, one way to obtain the dollars needed is to sell reserve assets, including U.S. Treasuries. A shock that begins in Japan’s foreign-exchange market can end up pushing up U.S. borrowing costs.”
But according to Nadia Gharbi from Pictet Wealth Management, “Although a structurally higher risk premium on U.S. debt is to be expected, the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency and the depth of U.S. capital markets give the country exceptional fiscal room for maneuver.” “We do not anticipate an imminent systemic sovereign debt crisis in the United States,” she added.
U.S. Treasuries remain the benchmark safe-haven asset of the global financial system, but they have become less attractive to some investors. The challenge is that any significant selloff would have repercussions far beyond the United States.
The United Kingdom is the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, with $939.9 billion in Treasuries. That figure largely reflects the custody business conducted through financial institutions in the City of London, the world’s second-largest financial center. It does not mean that the British government itself is Washington’s second-largest creditor.
China is the third-largest foreign holder, with $633 billion in U.S. government debt, a figure that has fallen by nearly $100 billion over the past year.
“China’s reduction is clearly part of a long-term trend, even if it is not selling every month,” Arnal said. “It has both geopolitical and financial reasons to diversify. Reducing its dependence on the dollar lowers its exposure to U.S. policy decisions and to the use of the financial system as a tool of pressure.”
Beijing remains Washington’s chief rival in the race for global economic and technological supremacy. Yet President Donald Trump’s complaints about the U.S. trade deficit, much of it attributed to China, have a financial counterpart: the United States has been able to fund the extraordinary growth of its technology sector and stock market in large part thanks to foreign investment.
As the U.S. Congress notes: “For decades, the United States has saved less than it invests. […] Without foreign borrowing, U.S. income would be lower than it currently is net of foreign interest payments in this scenario.
Even so, Arnal stresses that the U.S. government is financed primarily at home. Roughly 70% of publicly held federal debt is owned by domestic investors and around 30% by foreign holders.
“That measure excludes debt held between federal agencies but includes Treasury securities owned by the Federal Reserve,” she said. “So it is not accurate to portray the United States as a country that is financed mainly by China or Japan.”
Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition
La historia que el presidente Donald Trump contó recientemente durante un homenaje por los ataques del 11-S —en la que aseguró haber sido rescatado por bomberos ante la posibilidad de que se derrumbara un edificio cercano a las Torres Gemelas— ha generado cuestionamientos sobre su veracidad.
Wednesday, September 9 is the date about 170,000 Salvadorans had circled in red on their calendars. A date they have awaited with fear and uncertainty because it is the day the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program ends — a program that for more than two decades has allowed them to live and work in the United States legally. Since 2001, when the status was granted again — Salvadorans were the first to receive it in 1990 as a result of the civil war in their country, but it expired in 1992 and was not renewed then — beneficiaries have had to renew it every 18 months. They have followed the rules, paid the fees, and integrated into a country they consider their own more than the one where they were born. Over a quarter-century they have learned the language, started businesses, raised families, bought homes… They are part of the country’s economic and social fabric, but the end of TPS would leave them in limbo.
They have watched President Donald Trump make carrying out the largest deportation in history a priority of his second term. One by one, the Republican has dismantled humanitarian programs that allowed non-citizens to live in the country, enlarging the list of people deemed deportable. The administration has ended TPS for more than a dozen countries. Recently, protections for Haitians and Syrians were canceled. Many of those who had been living and working legally are now packed into detention centers run by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) or have been deported to the countries they fled to escape violence and poverty.
Salvadorans fear the same fate. In their case, they were granted TPS because of the devastation left by the civil war fought from 1979 to 1992 and the two earthquakes in 2001. Those who could leave did so in search of a better life — and they achieved their dream. The prospect of returning to a place they no longer recognize as their country, where violence and poverty persist, seems impossible and unjust. They have met every obligation imposed by the government, never committed crimes (a requirement to renew TPS), and now face losing everything and being separated from their loved ones.
These are the stories of some of the people in that situation.
José Urias, 47, businessman: “About 40 American families depend on my company”
José Urias entered the United States in 1995, “chasing a dream, like everyone else.” In the 31 years he has lived in the country he has married, had two children (aged 14 and 20) and started several businesses in the state of Massachusetts. He works in construction and also runs a dumpster rental company. “We have helped create jobs. Most of the people who work for me are U.S. citizens. About 40 families depend on the company,” he says. Urias hires plumbers, electricians, architects and other skilled construction workers.
“After 25 years with TPS, many of us have businesses, families… Some have college degrees and professional careers; we have doctors, nurses, psychologists, we are in every field,” he says. “To have done everything right and then be told, well no, everything you’ve done doesn’t matter, that doesn’t seem fair,” he adds, complaining about discriminatory treatment of their children. “They are treating them as if there are different classes of American citizens. There isn’t a first class and a second class, everyone is equal. Our children have the same rights as any other American citizen,” he insists.
This businessman is one of the tepesianos who decided to organize with other migrants in the National TPS Alliance in 2017 to fight Trump’s first-term attempt to end the program — an effort courts blocked, and which was revived when he returned to the White House in January 2025. “It forced us to fight to defend our families and our future,” he says, adding that it affected his “peace of mind.”
His children’s future is his greatest concern. His eldest is in his third year of college and his parents are supporting his studies financially. “My son has suffered anxiety and depression, because we are the ones supporting him, and he worries about what might happen to us and whether he will be able to finish his degree,” he says.
One of the administration’s most-used arguments for ending TPS is that it is temporary, as the name implies. However, after 25 years with a temporary permit, beneficiaries complain that the problem is there has been no pathway to permanent residency. “You try to adjust your status, but they have manipulated the system so you can’t. They say you haven’t tried because you don’t want to, but that’s a lie,” he explains.
Urias applied for an adjustment of status through his brother, a U.S. citizen, 11 years ago but has not yet received a response. He has no family left in El Salvador because his parents and siblings live in the United States. He has no definite plan in case he is forced to leave the country. “I’ve always said that after what happens on September 9 we’ll make decisions,” he says.
Virginia, 20, student: “I always answer calls because I don’t know if it could be my mother trying to reach me from a detention center”
Virginia is not a TPS beneficiary, but its cancellation will change her life — like the lives of hundreds of thousands of children whose parents were protected from deportation by the humanitarian program. Her mother was born in El Salvador, a country she fled decades ago, and Virginia now lives in fear of being separated from her. “I was about 12 the first time we talked about why she came to the United States; recently I asked again and she explained that the war there caused her a lot of trauma: the shootings, the street clashes… my grandparents didn’t live in a safe area, so they were very exposed to all of that. She also suffered many abuses within her own community,” she explains. Her mother, who prefers not to be named because of the risks identification could pose, is now 47 and has held TPS since 2001. She is married and has two other daughters, 12 and 13, and lives in Massachusetts.
The approach of September 9 and the fear of losing the benefit have shaken Virginia’s life. In her second year of college, she moved out of student housing to return home every night. “During my first year of college I lived on campus; I was there almost all the time and hardly ever went home. It was easier for me to focus on my studies and assignments without having to drive back every weekend,” she says. “This semester I started commuting from home because I wanted to spend more time there in case something happened to my mom. My family and my mom are my priorities now. My sisters are still children and I think it’s hard for them to understand, but I know they definitely feel the same way,” she adds.
The idea that her mother might have to leave the country is not openly discussed, but it is a threat the family lives with. The mother works with the National TPS Alliance and the father is employed in construction. Although they have not detailed what they would do if they had to separate, they are taking precautions, such as saving money. The father does not take a day off and Virginia balances work with her studies. “Our priority is to save money in case something happens to her,” she says.
Virginia knows that if her mother had to return to El Salvador she would have to assume her role with her younger sisters, since her father works nonstop. She says her mother tries not to show her concern and stays strong to avoid worrying her daughters. Sometimes, however, reality overwhelms her. “The other day I left the house and she sent me a message saying, ‘Can you come back and bring me some water? I think I’m having a panic attack.’ So I know it’s a difficult situation for her, though she’s doing a great job staying strong for the sake of her family.”
While they await a decision that will define their future, the whole family tries to carry on with life as normally as possible, though with precautions that reveal their underlying fear. “I always keep my phone with me and I always answer calls because I don’t know if it could be my mother trying to contact me from a detention center,” she admits.
Roxana Guillén: “I can’t leave now. My life is here and my daughter needs me”
Roxana prefers to use this name rather than her own. She lives with her 21-year-old daughter in Maryland. She has worked for nine years at a recovery center for people with addictions in Baltimore and is active in defending TPS. “I can’t leave now. My life is here and my daughter needs me,” she says. “To carry on, keep living my life, keep working, keep fighting,” she responds when asked about her plans. “I am a social fighter and that is what I am going to do, as far as I can. Work with members of Congress so they pass a law, because there are four bills. That’s what we need,” she says.
The lack of an agreement between Republicans and Democrats has prevented a solution for more than a million people who have lived and worked for years in the United States under the TPS umbrella and now face deportation. On Tuesday, Roxana was preparing to attend a vigil at the Capitol, where beneficiaries and their advocates gathered to ask for an extension of the program on the eve of its expiration.
In the more than two decades she has been in the United States, Roxana has made a living however she could, working nonstop. “I cleaned houses, sold Avon and cared for children. I did anything I could to survive.” She had fled, like her compatriots, the violence and poverty that ravaged the Central American country. Over the years she worked her way ahead and started a catering business providing food to construction workers, delivering lunch daily. She did that for 13 years until she decided she needed a job that required less physical effort. Now, she does not want to lose it. “A work permit is really important to me because here I can only work if I have papers. If I have to give it up I would be left with nothing,” she says about the possibility of losing her work authorization.
Her daughter is in college. “My life is here now. Here I have my home, here I have my job, here I have my daughter,” she says.
Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition
The Temporary Protected Status (TPS) that allowed 170,000 Salvadorans to live and work legally in the United States for more than two decades ends on September 9, 2026. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has kept that date as the program’s termination day and has not announced a new extension so far.
El Salvador was the first country to receive TPS, a humanitarian program that temporarily allows citizens of countries affected by war, extreme violence, or natural disasters to live and work legally in the United States. Protection for Salvadorans was first established in 1990 because of the devastation caused by the country’s civil war. It expired in 1992 and was not renewed until 2001, after two devastating earthquakes and a civil war that had left the country mired in poverty, violence, and instability and prompted the exodus of hundreds of thousands of people. Since then, it has been systematically extended.
Twenty-five years later, many of those who arrived under that protection have built lives in the United States: they have raised families, bought homes, started businesses and put down roots in their communities. In July, a Democratic congressman sent a letter signed by 80 members of his party to DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin asking him to preserve the program. They have not received a response so far.
El Salvador’s case comes amid a broader push by the Trump administration against TPS. Since the start of the Republican’s second term, the administration has worked to terminate designations for several countries, a strategy that has put the protection of hundreds of thousands of immigrants at risk. Pew Research Center estimates that roughly one million of the 1.3 million TPS beneficiaries who existed in March 2025 have lost protection.
At the start of September 2026, only Lebanon, Sudan, and Ukraine still had active designations, although the status of other countries remains subject to court proceedings. In June 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to move forward with ending TPS designations for Haiti and Syria.
Venezuela’s case also highlights the legal disputes that have accompanied much of this campaign. In February 2025, then–DHS secretary Kristi Noem ended the 2023 TPS designation for Venezuelans. That decision was initially blocked by a federal court, but the Supreme Court later allowed the administration to carry out the termination while litigation continued.
The Trump administration, which in 2018 tried to end TPS for El Salvador but was prevented from doing so by federal litigation, argues that the terminations respond to changed conditions that originally justified the designations and that affected countries now offer sufficient conditions for their citizens to return. The administration has also insisted that TPS was conceived as a temporary protection and has questioned why some designations have been extended for years or even decades.
Immigrant advocates, by contrast, say security, economic and social conditions remain adverse in several of the affected countries and that ending TPS after so many years ignores the deep ties beneficiaries have developed in the United States. Migration organizations have also questioned the consequences of terminations for families who have lived in the country for decades.
Below, EL PAÍS examines the myths and facts about the program’s end and the migration options now available to those who lose protection.
“El Salvador no longer faces any problems”
Salvadoran TPS was originally created after the 2001 earthquakes. In January 2025, DHS justified its most recent extension by saying conditions related to the environmental disaster persisted, including problems with access to water and the effects of recent weather events. Added to these circumstances are concerns from international bodies and human rights organizations about allegations of abuses under President Nayib Bukele’s government, including arbitrary detentions, due process violations, and mistreatment of people detained under the state of emergency implemented in 2022.
“On September 10 all Salvadorans with TPS will be deported”
The end of TPS does not mean that everyone protected by the program will be automatically deported the next day. What ends is the specific immigration protection granted by TPS. People who hold another status, a pending asylum application, or an immigration procedure that grants them independent protection may be in a different situation. The concrete consequence for each person will depend on their particular immigration circumstances.
“Work authorization becomes invalid immediately when TPS ends”
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has issued specific rules for employment authorization documents tied to TPS. As of September 10, 2026, an employment authorization whose only basis was Salvadoran TPS will no longer be valid, even if the physical card shows a later or different expiration date. But if a person has, for example, a work authorization based on a pending asylum application, DACA, a pending adjustment of status, or another independent immigration category, that authorization remains valid according to the rules of that category.
USCIS can grant automatic extensions of employment authorization cards to TPS beneficiaries in certain circumstances, but those extensions are linked to TPS itself and to DHS rules.
“The end of TPS means there are no longer any migration options”
Some TPS beneficiaries may have other legal options or pending procedures that allow them to remain in the country, such as a residency application based on a family petition, marriage to a U.S. citizen, an asylum process, or another form of protection or immigration status.
However, the end of TPS could have significant consequences for those without other protections. Once the program ends on September 9, people who remain in the United States without another status could begin to accrue unlawful presence (penalties begin once 180 exact days have passed from the expiration of the I-94, the entry and exit record), reducing their chances of obtaining a new status.
Beneficiaries who believe they have a pathway to remain legally in the United States should consult an immigration lawyer as soon as possible to determine whether they can apply for another status or protection, and which deadlines apply to their case.
Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition