Just a few months ago it seemed unthinkable even to begin discussing a plan to legalize more than 10 million undocumented people and propose reforms or even abolish the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE). While its agents carried out raids in Hispanic neighborhoods and the violence of their actions reached its most critical point with migrants and citizens shot dead, Democratic lawmakers concentrated their demands on reining in the agency and pushing for better conditions in detention centers. But in January of next year, different winds will blow in Congress and the Democrats, who will hold majorities in both chambers, will have the upper hand.

A week before the historic midterm elections, both debates — about immigration reform and subjecting ICE to intense scrutiny — have started to gain traction. Even President Donald Trump has signaled a willingness to negotiate a possible amnesty with Democrats and has acknowledged that his deportation policy was “too tough.”

“We need a pathway to citizenship. Period. And what we’ve seen before is that the problem keeps being put off again and again,” said Bobby Pulido, the Tejano singer turned congressman-elect from Texas, the night he celebrated his victory to represent that state’s 15th District.

On Sunday, California Senator Alex Padilla, the son of Mexican immigrants, added his voice to that call. “We need a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who have spent years working hard, paying taxes and strengthening our communities,” he wrote on his X account.

These messages are music to the ears of people who have spent nearly two years under the pressure of ICE raids. Immigration was one of the central issues that contributed to the Republicans’ electoral defeats. Still, few have celebrated too loudly given an occupant of the White House known for his constant contradictions. This Friday, true to his pattern of reversals, Trump made a U-turn and named Stephen Miller— the architect of some of the most restrictive immigration policies of his first and second terms, including a plan to deport one million undocumented people a year—as Chief of Staff.

ICE’s relentless operations

ICE has shown no sign of scaling back its operations. Friday night in Los Angeles, a crowd confronted federal agents with covered faces who staged themselves outside White Memorial Hospital in Boyle Heights, a predominantly Hispanic neighborhood. During the altercation, two officers were assaulted and two people were detained, the agency said in a statement. According to ICE, its agents had arrested two Hondurans with criminal records. One of them allegedly resisted arrest and was injured, and was taken to a medical facility.

On Saturday, in her first public appearance since her electoral victory, Los Angeles mayor-elect Nithya Raman described the operation as a confrontation with the wishes of the people of the United States and of Los Angeles. She sent a message of solidarity to the immigrant families of Boyle Heights: “You are not alone.” ICE responded via its X account: “Despite the LA mayor elect’s political grandstanding, ICE will not back down from protecting American communities.”

On its social networks, ICE has continued posting arrests of immigrants with criminal records in Arizona, Kentucky, Ohio, California and Virginia, even after the midterms.

Indeed, ICE has enough funding to carry out its mass deportation plan during the remaining two years of the Trump administration. For 2025 and 2026 alone, Congress appropriated more than $70 billion to that agency and to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Proof that it has sufficient resources came just four days after the midterms, when ICE announced multiple openings for deportation officers in various parts of the country.

From now on, however, voices calling to cut that funding and subject ICE to stricter oversight are being heard. “We have to rein ICE in because its illegal, out-of-control activities (have) killed individuals … assaulted individuals … have incarcerated individuals,” said Mississippi Democratic Representative Bennie Thompson in a statement quoted by NPR. Thompson is expected to chair the Homeland Security Committee.

Abolish ICE or reform it

ICE left a trail of brutality in Houston last summer. On July 7, 2026, one of its agents fatally shot Mexican national Lorenzo Salgado Araujo during a traffic stop. Salgado, who had no criminal record, was driving a truck and was not the person the agents were looking for. The day after the elections, hundreds of people placed “I voted” stickers at the memorial erected in the migrant’s honor.

One of the first signs that different winds are blowing in Texas came from Houston’s Democratic mayor, John Whitmire, who on Friday signed an executive order limiting the local police department’s cooperation with ICE. From now on, officers may notify the agency and hold an undocumented detainee until ICE assumes custody only when the person faces charges that could lead to imprisonment or is accused of a violent crime.

““I do this to begin a healing process — reduce fear and anxiety across our community,” Whitmire said at a press conference. Texas experienced a historic shift: Democrats won 83 of the state House’s 150 seats, according to preliminary counts. It is part of the wave that produced Gina Hinojosa’s victory in the governor’s race and James Talarico’s win in the Senate contest.

Whitmire, who took office in 2024 after decades as a state senator, said he had consulted the elected legislators and that, for them, it is not a priority to continue cooperating with ICE. “I also do this knowing that elections matter… This is the right thing at the right time,” the mayor added.

ICE, which has repeatedly criticized cities that limit local police cooperation with immigration agents and labeled them sanctuary jurisdictions, also reacted to the measure: “Watching child porn and selling heroin are classified as “nonviolent offenses” by the way. This is the Mayor of Houston directly advocating for policies that protect some of the worst criminals in America,” the agency posted on its X account.

Although Democrats agree that beginning in January they will put ICE under a microscope, they are divided over the agency’s future. One faction calls for abolishing it and replacing it with a different structure. Its members include Representatives Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Delia Ramírez, as well as Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed. Another group believes ICE should undergo deep reform but not be eliminated. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Ruben Gallego and Tina Smith, and Representatives Bill Keating, Stephen Lynch and Lori Trahan are in this camp. Senator-elect James Talarico agrees with the latter group.

“Abolishing an agency does not stop unethical and illegal behavior. We saw that with the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) when it was dissolved. The people working there don’t disappear. They split it into three entities and now we still see very similar repercussions, with agents committing improper, illegal and unconstitutional acts. That’s why I believe we need reforms, accountability and oversight,” said congresswoman-elect JoAnna Mendoza, an immigration reform supporter, in an interview with EL PAÍS last August.

Arizona’s 6th District, which Mendoza will represent in Congress, is part of the border districts whose seats were won by Democrats, from San Diego, California, to Brownsville, Texas. That will give them more leverage in negotiations with the White House.

More than 1,000 cases of abuse

On Election Day, as Republicans were losing seat after seat, Democrats on the House Homeland Security Committee posted a brief message on social media directed at Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin: “Clear your agenda.” The next day, Mullin responded on X in a defiant tone: “Deportations will continue.”

Other figures who could come under scrutiny include former Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and her adviser Corey Lewandowski. Noem was criticized for a roughly $220 million advertising campaign to promote Trump’s immigration policy, as well as for the actions of federal agents who fatally shot two U.S. citizens, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, during operations in Minneapolis.

California Representative Robert García is poised to lead the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. In mid-October, during a press conference after an incident in Long Beach in which federal agents injured a man’s arm during a detention, the lawmaker announced that investigating abuses committed by ICE agents will be one of his priorities starting in January.

He also pointed to other issues he intends to address: “the corruption” of the president and his family, corporate corruption and the cases of survivors of Jeffrey Epstein, the deceased mogul accused of running a sex trafficking ring allegedly involving high-profile figures.

García said his committee has documented more than 1,000 cases of “credible and verified” abuse allegedly committed by federal immigration agents. That documentation will lead the committee’s work going forward, he said.

Fatal shootings of people who, according to complaints, did not pose a threat to federal agents; excessive use of force against protesters; arrests without warrants; racial profiling; agents with little training and criminal records; human rights violations in detention centers; deaths allegedly caused by medical negligence at those facilities; and deportations to third countries as distant as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These are just some of the numerous allegations that have been leveled against ICE agents during Trump’s immigration offensive.

García is part of the group of Democrats who believe the solution is to eliminate the problem at its root rather than try to reform it, to end its practices and hold its personnel and leaders to account.

ICE is an organization that cannot be reformed, the congressman said at last month’s press conference. “ICE must be abolished, because that kind of terror should not continue to exist in the United States. They terrorize entire communities, whose members are afraid right now to leave their homes, go to work or take their children to school.”

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A simple office party can reflect an entire industry. A couple of weeks ago, employees in some Disney divisions received an email that hit them hard: their annual Halloween celebration had been cancelled. It had not happened in years. Suspicion began to spread, followed by rumours and then certainty. In the coming weeks, perhaps even days, many are expecting another wave of layoffs. And this comes as the industry is enjoying one of its best years at the box office.

They are not the first cuts, either at Disney or across the entertainment industry. At the start of 2023, 7,000 employees were laid off. In mid-2025, there was another major round of layoffs; this spring, around 1,000 more jobs were cut; and in October, another 300. The company behind Mickey Mouse has now been joined by another giant. Netflix recently laid off around 1,000 employees, roughly 6% of its workforce. The final blow seemed to come on Thursday, October 16, with the departure of Bela Bajaria, the company’s chief content officer. But there was more to come on Monday, when Dan Lin, head of film, was fired from the company.

Hollywood is bracing for even more turbulence. Alongside the recent layoffs looms an even darker cloud: Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, a merger that will operate under the name Skydance. The deal is worth nearly $100 billion, but it has also sparked deep anxiety across the industry.

The concern is not only that fewer projects or productions may be commissioned. For now, Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount remain separate companies, each with its own corporate structure. But industry insiders expect the real integration to begin within about six months, with services, office spaces and departments gradually merged. Will there still be two sales teams, two marketing departments or two communications divisions? Probably not. Many workers expect job cuts to begin by early 2027.

Whether it is a cause or a consequence, Los Angeles is also losing ground as the heart of the audiovisual industry. The pandemic dealt a severe blow, as did the writers’ and actors’ strikes of 2023, which secured improvements in collective bargaining agreements and working conditions. But those victories have come with a downside: many companies are reluctant to absorb the higher labor costs that resulted from the new contracts, prompting productions to move away from the city and from California altogether.

That is why, a couple of years ago, industry professionals launched the platform Stay In LA, through which hundreds of workers have urged studios to keep productions in the city. They have campaigned both through civic initiatives and legal efforts to make Los Angeles “the easiest (and most competitive) place in the world to shoot.” So far, the battle has not been an easy one.

A study by Ernst & Young, which analyzed film and television production between 1999 and 2024, found that shoots are moving away from Hollywood and, increasingly, from the United States altogether. The share of film production budgets spent in the U.S. has fallen from 74% to 42%. In other words, the proportion spent overseas has risen from 26% to 58%, now accounting for more than half of all production spending.

According to the study, if those productions had remained in the country, they would have generated an additional $2 billion in domestic production spending, with knock-on effects for both direct and indirect employment and, in turn, the wider economy. Television shows tell a similar story: the share of episodes filmed in the United States has dropped from 94% of the total to 64%, a 30% drop.

In recent years, the population of Los Angeles has been shrinking and this year more than ever. According to U.S. Census data, cited by local media, more than 54,000 people left Los Angeles County between July 2024 and July 2025. The county’s population has fallen from more than 10 million residents in 2020 to 9.7 million in 2025.

In the city itself, the average home value now stands at $928,000, according to the real estate platform Zillow. Local media report that buying a home is 108% more expensive than renting, citing a study by a construction company. They are difficult living conditions to sustain in such an uncertain environment.

All of this comes as 2026 is shaping up to be the strongest year for the U.S. box office in years. Summer ticket sales alone reached $5 billion, driven above all by The Odyssey and Spider-Man, but also by animated hits such as Toy Story 5, Super Mario Galaxy and Minions & Monsters, which together grossed nearly $1.1 billion in the United States. The year’s biggest successes also include the Michael Jackson biopic, Project Hail Mary, surprise hits Obsession and Backrooms, and the long-awaited sequel to The Devil Wears Prada.

Worldwide, five films have already surpassed the $1 billion mark, something that has not happened since 2019. Yet despite the booming box office, Hollywood remains an industry clouded by uncertainty, and the dark cloud hanging over it shows little sign of lifting.

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