Red Bull can breathe a collective sigh of relief this morning after four-time world champion and star man Max Verstappen put pen to paper on a new, blockbuster deal.

Having been linked with joining one of their rivals – namely McLaren and Mercedes – or retiring from the sport altogether, Verstappen is now tied down at Red Bull through the 2030 season.

And, while Red Bull will be very grateful that Verstappen has decided to stick around, they now owe a deal of gratitude to another driver on the grid, one Kimi Antonelli.

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Mercedes were heavily linked to Max Verstappen

We don’t have to cast our minds back too long to get to a time when Verstappen was being heavily linked with a switch to Mercedes.

Having lost Lewis Hamilton ahead of the 2025 season, Mercedes entered 2025 with Antonelli and George Russell both on one-year deals, handing them great flexibility when it came to determining their drivers for 2026 and beyond.

It feels like an age ago now given his exploits this season, but Antonelli’s rookie struggles only added fuel to the fire that the team might look to add Verstappen to their ranks, with Toto Wolff having missed out on signing him way back in 2014.

However, one crucial factor was not in play in 2025. Max Verstappen’s exit clause.

While his 2026 break clause came into effect during the summer break because he was outside of the top two in the drivers’ standings, that exit clause did not reportedly become active in 2025 due to Verstappen meeting his performance targets at the time, which only required him to be third in the standings.

Over that 2025 summer, Wolff had even confirmed Mercedes were exploring what Verstappen was set to do in the future, all while Russell and Antonelli’s futures remained up in the air.

Crucially, however, with the clause not active, the option to sign Verstappen simply wasn’t there.

We’ll never know what Mercedes would have done if it was, but it isn’t too much of a stretch to think that if the four-time world champion was available, Wolff would have acted swiftly, particularly with question marks hanging over Antonelli at the time.

Kimi Antonelli saved Red Bull; Mercedes don’t need Verstappen

Fast forward to 2026, and Verstappen’s clause did become active, but things had drastically changed at Mercedes.

Antonelli’s ascent from struggling rookie to potentially the youngest champion the sport has ever seen has been remarkable.

The 19-year-old Italian’s six grands prix victories so far this year have proved to Wolff and company that he is very much capable of competing for and winning a championship in F1, even despite his young age. Any question marks over his talent and mentality after a tough rookie season have been firmly put to bed.

In that sense, Kimi Antonelli might have saved Red Bull.

Had the young Italian not had such a tremendous turnaround in form this season, Wolff surely would have acted the second that Verstappen’s break clause became active in 2026.

As much as he likes his current drivers, the Austrian is a serial winner, and would have surely taken the opportunity to tie up the sport’s best driver if the same question marks still hung over the young Italian this season.

But they don’t – while Russell has had his struggles this year, Mercedes have nurtured Antonelli perfectly and he has emerged as a real star of the sport. The bad news for his rivals, is that he will likely continue to get even better.

Of course, you could argue that Wolff could have looked to put Verstappen alongside Antonelli and oust Russell. However, given the way that Verstappen has destroyed some of his team-mates at Red Bull over the years, that would not have been a wise move and certainly would have risked destabilising Antonelli’s progression.

Antonelli’s ascent essentially decided that there was no room at the inn for Verstappen at Mercedes, no requirement to land a driver they knew was capable of winning championships. Because they now already have one.

Former F1 team principal Guenther Steiner summed it up perfectly in a recent appearance on the Up to Speed podcast, explaining: “Mercedes, obviously, I think they found now the next Max Verstappen, so maybe they don’t need the real Max Verstappen.”

Verstappen himself has now admitted that he was closer to retirement than joining another team such as Mercedes, and Antonelli’s rise surely played a role in that.

Ultimately, Antonelli’s emergence has given Mercedes little reason to disrupt what is already looking like a winning formula this season, while at the same time giving Red Bull the breathing room it needed to secure Verstappen’s signature again.

Antonelli has established himself as a genuine F1 title contender in his second season in the sport, and that has meant that the biggest threat to Verstappen’s Red Bull future inadvertently disappeared.

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Max Verstappen is currently involved in a high-stakes game of poker with his employer as he ponders his F1 future.

The 28-year-old Dutchman has a contract through to 2028, though there is of course an exit clause which is now active after he entered the summer break outside the top two in the championship standings.

Despite being linked with Mercedes and McLaren, there has been no movement as yet in silly season. And neither has Verstappen yet committed to Red Bull for the long term.

According to ESPN insider Nate Saunders, Verstappen’s current Red Bull deal is not helping him in negotiations, as he explained in his ‘bold predictions for the remainder of 2026’.

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Red Bull deal hurts Verstappen leverage

Saunders claims Verstappen’s leverage is hampered by the deal, explaining: “The signing of such a long-term deal was, in hindsight, a terrible bit of business by Verstappen.

“He’s won three more world titles since and Formula 1’s popularity has boomed to heights that seemed unfathomable even in 2022.

“It’s his own Scottie Pippen moment: it’s not unfair to suggest the financial terms of that deal, however lucrative they were, are now also ludicrously cheap compared to what Verstappen could get on the open market today.”

Red Bull vs Verstappen – a contract stand-off

Widespread reports suggest that Verstappen wants a significant pay rise if he commits to a new long-term Red Bull deal, while his employer would very much like that exit clause removed. Cue a very high-profile stand-off.

The fact Mercedes and McLaren appear to be set with their driver lineups for 2027 mean that while the exit clause is active, Verstappen may have nowhere to go.

That means Red Bull have a surprising amount of leverage here – in effect they are bidding against themselves.

Nuclear option for Max

There is another nuclear option for Verstappen of course – involving either retirement or a one-year sabbatical.

The former – while Verstappen has referenced it this year – would appear to be off the table. The latter though should not be totally ruled out as it would allow Verstappen to leave Red Bull and return to the driver market in the summer of 2027, when more prime seats are likely to open up for 2028.

Right now Verstappen remains the biggest domino to fall in silly season 2026, and when he does blink others will follow.

One other fact means this is a story which could run and run though – it is believed Verstappen has until October to act on that exit clause.

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Red Bull star reacts to team boss’ unexpected backing for F1 promotion

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The Dutch track first held an F1 world championship race all the way back in 1952, with well over 30 races being held over the years up to Sunday’s farewell.

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