Flying to Spain in 2027? Ryanair warns fares could rise sharply

Millions of passengers relying on cheap flights between Britain, Ireland and Spain could face higher fares next year after Ryanair warned that persistent fuel costs may force ticket prices sharply upwards.

Ryanair trims annual passenger target after a strong August

Ryanair carried 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6 per cent on the same month last year, while its load factor held steady at 96 per cent. Rolling twelve-month traffic reached 214.4 million passengers, a rise of 5 per cent on the year before, according to the airline’s latest traffic update.

Despite that growth, the airline has cut its full-year target for the 2027 financial year from 216 million to 214 million passengers. Ryanair said the reduction was designed to reduce its exposure to unhedged winter oil costs during its traditionally loss-making November-to-March schedule.

Why the airline is shielding itself from unhedged fuel costs

Ryanair has hedged around 80 per cent of its fuel needs through to March 2027 at about $67 (€58) a barrel, well below the roughly $140 (€121) a barrel jet fuel was trading at this week. The remaining 20 per cent of its winter fuel bill is exposed to that far higher market price.

Prices have been pushed up in recent weeks by renewed tension between the United States and Iran, which has stoked concerns over global oil supply. Rather than grow its winter schedule as usual, Ryanair now plans to keep November-to-March capacity broadly flat compared with last year, a move it expects will cut its winter losses by €70 million to €100 million.

The fare warning that could hit routes to Spain hardest

Ryanair said that if elevated oil prices persist through the summer of 2027, short-haul airfares across Europe will increase materially to reflect the higher cost of fuel. It also warned that rivals with less fuel hedged may struggle to maintain their schedules, or could be forced to cut flights, over the coming winter.

That warning carries particular weight for British and Irish holidaymakers, since Ryanair holds the largest overall passenger market share in Spain. It carried close to 29.8 million passengers into and out of the country in the first half of 2026 alone, more than five times as many as its closest low-cost rival, Wizz Air. 

Fares are currently drifting modestly lower than a year ago, Ryanair said, but that could change quickly if fuel costs stay high into next summer.

Growth still planned for summer 2027 despite the caution

The reduction applies only to winter. Ryanair still expects passenger numbers to grow by 5 per cent between April and October 2027, from 138 million to 145 million, as its busiest holiday season continues to expand. The airline said it still expects another profitable year overall, even if below last year’s record result.

Not the first fuel warning of the year

This is not the first time in 2026 that Ryanair has pointed to fuel costs as a threat to fares. In April, the airline warned that tension around the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt up to a quarter of its fuel deliveries and push European ticket prices higher over the summer months.

The latest warning also comes as competition intensifies on Spanish routes. Wizz Air is opening new bases in Madrid and Valencia in November, adding capacity on 87 routes it shares with Ryanair, though that extra competition has not always translated into cheaper tickets on Spain’s busiest routes.