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Logros Y Descalabros Geopolíticos De Trump: Un Balance

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Este artículo es un envío de la newsletter de Apuntes de Geopolítica, un boletín exclusivo para los suscriptores de EL PAÍS, con propuestas de interpretación y sugerencias de lecturas sobre la actualidad internacional: puede apuntarse aquí para recibirlo.

El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, pronunció este martes en la ONU un discurso que sonó como el himno de la destrucción del multilateralismo. Amenazó con aniquilar un país (Irán), dejó patente su voluntad de destruir una institución internacional (el Tribunal Penal Internacional), advirtió de que se opondrá a cualquier intento de consenso regulatorio global sobre IA y consideró que a los vencedores de las guerras les corresponde sacar tajada, en una lógica de expolio que se halla en las antípodas de los valores de las Naciones Unidas.

Pero, además, el discurso sonó a la habitual y sonrojante letanía autocelebratoria, cada vez más lejana de la realidad. Trump desgranó uno a uno sus presuntos éxitos. Dedicaré esta entrega del boletín a esbozar un balance geopolítico de la segunda presidencia del magnate. Sin duda hay algunos logros; pero pesan más los descalabros.

Groenlandia

Trump presumió del acuerdo alcanzado con Dinamarca y Groenlandia para reforzar la proyección militar estadounidense en el territorio ártico. ¿Es realmente un éxito?

Si se tiene en la cabeza como punto de partida los reiterados anhelos de anexión de Groenlandia expresados por Trump, las amenazas de llevarla a cabo por las buenas o por las malas, y su consideración de que solo la propiedad del territorio serviría realmente, se trata de una “gran retirada”, como sostiene The New York Times en una información sobre la cuestión:

Otro metro de juicio es si las amenazas hiperbólicas eran una herramienta negociadora para obtener una mejora de la situación. En esta óptica, el análisis es complejo. EE UU ya disponía con el acuerdo de 1951 de un amplio margen de maniobra. El nuevo acuerdo amplía en algunos aspectos sus prerrogativas. Arnaud Bertrand propone una comparativa en un post en X que destaca varios elementos favorables a Washington.

A mi juicio, el balance debe incluir otro elemento: el coste que esa mejora inflige. Este último es elevadísimo. El anhelo de anexión de Groenlandia ha sido un elemento fundamental en la plena ruptura de la confianza de los europeos en EEUU. Fue, como pude constatar en Davos y en la conferencia de Múnich, fundamental para impulsar una nueva visión del mundo. EEUU podría con toda probabilidad haber conseguido un acuerdo como este por las buenas. Lo hizo por las malas, y el beneficio tiene un precio muy elevado.

Aquí, el texto del acuerdo:

Venezuela

El presidente de EE UU también esgrimió el acuerdo alcanzado con Venezuela para poder explotar su petróleo. La ilegal operación militar con la cual EE UU penetró en Venezuela y capturó a Maduro nunca fue la primera fase de un intento de transición (hacia la democracia), sino de transacción (hacia el beneficio petrolero).

Aquí, un vídeo análisis de mi compañera María Martín sobre el acuerdo:

Mis compañeros Iker Seisdedos y Jesús Sérvulo González han hecho un fact-checking al discurso de Trump, y se ocupan también de lo que dijo sobre Venezuela, con claras exageraciones

Aun así, y aunque política y moralmente la jugada en Venezuela sea profundamente reprobable, se puede considerar que para Trump es un éxito. Ha encarcelado a un dictador antagonista, le ha sustituido con su vice, que ahora actúa con plena sumisión, y se ha asegurado —al menos de momento— activos considerables, aunque de difícil explotación.

Irán

Las presuntas bondades de su guerra contra Irán también fueron parte de la alocución de Trump en la ONU. En este caso, el balance es, en realidad, un verdadero descalabro para EE UU. El ataque ha demostrado la eficacia táctica de las fuerzas militares y de inteligencia de EE UU e Israel, capaces de decapitar al régimen. Pero ha demostrado un espectacular nivel de incompetencia en cuanto a definición de objetivos estratégicos y cálculos de consecuencias.

El resultado es que EE UU se halla empantanado en un conflicto en el que ha puesto en evidencia la esterilidad de su superioridad militar, que le granjea el malestar de socios locales que sufren graves consecuencias y que produce una escalada de precios de la energía que cabrea a todo el planeta —y a los votantes estadounidenses que irán a las urnas en poco más de un mes para las legislativas—.

En Yemen, los hutíes, facción afín al régimen iraní, están aprovechando a fondo la situación:

Dos autores de prestigio como Richard Haas y Carolyne Kissane consideran en Foreign Affairs que la actual situación no es sostenible.

China

El discurso en la ONU se produjo días antes de la visita oficial de Xi Jinping a Washington. En la anterior cita, hace unos meses en China, las dos partes acordaron poner un freno a la escalada de tensión, acuñando el concepto de estabilidad estratégica constructiva.

A mi juicio el balance en lo que va de segunda presidencia de Trump es favorable a China. Ello no significa que la embestida arancelaria no haya causado problemas a Pekín, ni mucho menos que China no tenga serios desafíos internos que afrontar. No obstante, el balance es negativo para Washington porque el mensaje mundial ha sido cristalino: la ofensiva arancelaria brutal ha sido repelida con una demoledora respuesta de restricción a la exportación de materias primas estratégicas. Esto ha forzado a la Casa Blanca a bajar la intensidad, mostrando —de nuevo— los límites del poderío estadounidense. Mientras, por una vía u otra, China sigue acumulando un surplus en su comercio con el exterior cada vez mayor.

Aquí, un comentario analítico publicado por el centro de estudio MERICS que pone el foco sobre la política exterior china, y concluye con una lapidaria observación acerca de la profesionalidad de esta frente a la contraparte estadounidense, con un Trump errático y un Departamento de Estado mermado.

Por supuesto, la partida sigue Abierto, y no cabe duda de que será central en ella la carrera en el sector de la IA. A propósito, una interesante pieza publicada por El Grand Continent, que presenta y glosa un artículo escrito por el ministro del Departamento de Seguridad de Estado.

A propósito de IA, aprovecho para sugerir la lectura de una información que publiqué recientemente:

Concluyo con una mirada panorámica sobre un mundo en llamas que se reúne en una ONU en ruinas.

En la información cito a Susan C. Stokes, catedrática estadounidense que ha publicado recientemente en España un ensayo –“Los regresores” (Galaxia Gutenberg)– que aborda los procesos de involución democrática impulsados por líderes como Trump y cuya lectura recomiendo. Puede parecer una cuestión de política interna, pero no lo es, porque el deterioro democrático, el camino hacia distintas formas de autoritarismo, también acaban teniendo un reflejo en las relaciones internacionales.

El balance geopolítico de Trump es muy negativo. Su impacto en el mundo, también. Pero hay señales esperanzadoras. El Partido Republicano tiene visos de sufrir una derrota en noviembre; el propio Trump parece estar haciendo ‘check-out’ de la presidencia, como de forma mordaz ha notado Ed Luce en el FT, subrayando que parece ocuparse cada vez más de monumentos en su nombre y reformas de palacios oficiales que de política; y el resto del mundo empieza a tomar las medidas.

Este artículo es un envío de la newsletter de Apuntes de Geopolítica, un boletín exclusivo para los suscriptores de EL PAÍS, con propuestas de interpretación y sugerencias de lecturas sobre la actualidad internacional: puede apuntarse aquí para recibirlo.

Antonio Guterres

Rebeca Grynspan Mantiene El Liderazgo En La Votación Para La Jefatura De La ONU Pero Aumentan Los Países Que La Rechazan

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El camino para encontrar un nuevo liderazgo de la ONU parece complicarse. La quinta votación informal del Consejo de Seguridad refleja un panorama difícil de leer, solo apto para los apasionados de analizar los entresijos de Naciones Unidas. La votación arroja un dato incontrovertible: la costarricense Rebeca Grynspan continúa en cabeza. Y además se aleja de sus inmediatos seguidores. Pero eso no quiere decir que el camino para sustituir a António Guterres ya esté expedito, ya que la experimentada política de Costa Rica acumula también un importante volumen de rechazos.

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Arnold Schwarzenegger

The Electoral Cost Of Trump’s Remarks That Iran Could ‘take Out’ LA Or San Diego

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President Donald Trump said it without weighing the possible electoral consequences for Republican candidates in California, less than a month before the midterm elections. Far from generating laughter or support for his war with Iran, his comments have raised concern and could affect the vote in a state governed by Democrats since 2011. During a rally in Nebraska on Monday, the president said Iran could “take out” Los Angeles or San Diego, two of the largest cities in the United States, calling it a “small price” to pay to eliminate what he says is the threat posed by the Iranian regime.

As part of his campaign tour across the country to support Republican candidates —generally in places where a Republican victory is more likely, since in tighter races Trump could be more a liability than a boost— the president moved awkwardly from urging turnout in the midterms on November 3 to talking about war with Iran and the “small price” it represents “to keep the world safe.”

Polls show it will be difficult for Republicans to hold narrow control of both chambers of Congress, and Trump’s Nebraska speech seems unlikely to help them. “They could take out a city. Let them take — Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego. That’s — this is a very small price to pay, and it’s going to be over with very soon. It’s essentially almost over with,” Trump said of a war that has stretched for more than seven months without any clear signs of ending.

There is a fairly recent precedent for the threat Iran could pose to California. In March, Californians were alarmed after a report from the Federal Bureau of Investigation warned that the Iranian regime might be planning drone attacks against the state in retaliation for U.S. military actions on its territory. Both the federal government and Governor Gavin Newsom then said there was no imminent threat to California.

Trump’s recent remarks also appeared framed by rising oil prices and, consequently, higher gasoline and other fuel costs in the United States, driven by the conflict in a region crucial to crude transport. That “small price” Californians are paying, in particular, is actually very high: this week a gallon of gasoline sold for $6.37 —and in some places even $9— about 46% above the national average, according to AAA. The difficult economic situation, with the cost of living, health insurance and housing at the forefront, is voters’ top concern, according to various polls.

Ballots began arriving this week in the mailboxes of thousands of Californians.

“It complicates their campaigns”

Miguel Tinker Salas, professor emeritus of History and Chicano Studies at Pomona College east of Los Angeles, says Trump’s comments could have consequences for Republican candidates in California before the polls close. “It complicates their campaigns; it makes the political landscape harder for them,” the professor says.

In California, Republican hopefuls are running for governor, the state attorney general’s office and other key positions, as well as seats in the House of Representatives. For many of them it is an uphill race in a Democratic stronghold, and even more so after the recent redistricting pushed by Governor Gavin Newsom to favor his party’s contenders, part of a nationwide battle. In that context, Tinker Salas believes Trump’s Nebraska remarks will end up hurting his own candidates.

One of those most affected may be Steve Hilton, a British-born former political strategist for David Cameron’s Conservative Party before Brexit who became a conservative commentator on Fox News, and is now the Republican candidate for governor. So far, Hilton has not commented on the controversy. Since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office after two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2011, no other Republican has won that post.

“California hasn’t elected a Republican in many years. There was an opening with Hilton, in a way, because he was not only the opposition candidate but the anti-establishment opponent who had committed many failures. But as the campaign has unfolded he has lost support, and his closeness to Trump increases that loss,” Tinker Salas said.

Trump is very present in the race. He has officially endorsed Hilton, and a network of donors aligned with the president, from various parts of the country, continues to funnel resources into his campaign. The president’s strategy is not limited to the governorship: at the Republican convention ahead of the midterms he even said people should vote as if his name were on the ballot and promised a $5,000 payment to all American adults if his party retains control of the House of Representatives.

Hilton’s disadvantage

Hilton has fallen behind in the polls. One of the most recent surveys, conducted by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, shows the Democratic candidate, Xavier Becerra, has increased his lead: 58% of respondents said they would vote for him, compared with 33% who favored the Republican. The gap widened by seven percentage points from the previous measurement.

In that same poll, about 44% said their main concern was “reducing the cost of living,” while 37% identified “fighting the policies of the Trump administration” as their priority. Not even polls commissioned by Hilton’s campaign work in his favor. The latest, published this week, puts Becerra six points ahead: 45.7% to Hilton’s 40.1%.

Becerra has joined Democratic leaders —including Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria— in criticizing Trump’s remarks. “Thirteen million Californians call LA and San Diego counties home. Their lives are not a ‘small price to pay’ or a punchline for Donald Trump,” he wrote Monday night on his X account. Responses to the post were divided.

Thirteen million Californians call LA and San Diego counties home. Their lives are not a “small price to pay” or a punchline for Donald Trump. https://t.co/TG23f6b5XF

— Xavier Becerra (@XavierBecerra) October 6, 2026

Some users commented under the post that California Republicans who once voted for Trump may now be “disappointed.” Others downplayed the president’s words, calling them a “joke,” and argued that a doctored video of the Nebraska rally was being spread. The latter reflects voters’ sometimes selective distrust of what they see on social media.

The president’s remarks also drew no laughter from Governor Gavin Newsom, one of the Democrats who most often confronts him and who is about to leave office after two consecutive terms, and is being discussed as a possible presidential candidate in 2028. Newsom called the president “deranged and dangerous” and said he had even ordered the State Threat Assessment Center to actively monitor the situation “in case foreign actors interpret the president’s remarks as an invitation to attack California.”

Professor Tinker Salas was also troubled by the crowd’s reaction during Trump’s rally. After the president said Iran “could take out a city,” some attendees responded with a “yesss.” Others applauded when he added that the targets could be Los Angeles or San Diego.

“It reflects a cynical attitude, it reflects information manipulation. But what is most worrying is how the message was received by the people behind Trump,” the professor says. “You can expect any foolishness from Trump, but people applauded. We are in a critical situation regarding the social fabric of this country.”

Reported by Patricia Vélez Santiago.

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Abelardo de la Espriella

US Moves Spy Drones From Africa To Colombia And Ecuador To Combat Drug Trafficking

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The United States has sent spy drones to Colombia and Ecuador to support both countries’ actions against organized crime, two military sources told the newspaper The New York Times. The aircraft involved are an undetermined number of MQ-9 Reapers that had been stationed in Africa. Although their primary roles are linked to surveillance, they can be used in offensive operations. The arrival of these aircraft, announced by Colombia in August, cements Washington’s growing active role in the operations of the armed forces of the two South American countries, which in recent months have agreed to begin “joint operations.”

It is “a significant signal from the administration that we are getting serious,” said retired diplomat Francisco Palmieri, former chargé d’affaires in Bogotá, in remarks to the Times. “As a political symbol, it’s unmistakable. It’s a sign of a commitment to expand both the level and type of cooperation,” he added. Days earlier, General Francis Donovan had said Washington intends to expand the strikes it began last year against small boats in the Caribbean and Pacific that it identified as drug traffickers to the wider continent.

MQ-9 Reapers provide ground reconnaissance and surveillance activities without exposing military personnel, as happens with traditional combat aircraft. They can fly at altitudes of up to 15,000 meters and are hard to detect. They can also carry precision munitions. “They cannot cause large-scale destruction in quantitative terms, but they can qualitatively: they are indispensable for destroying very selective targets, such as people,” Félix Arteaga, an international security expert at Spain’s Royal Elcano Institute, told this newspaper a few years ago. They have a 20-meter wingspan, are 11 meters long and 4 meters high. They cost around $30 million per unit.

MQ-9 Reapers are already used along the U.S.–Mexico border. According to reporting by The New York Times early last year, overflights to monitor cartel activities inside Mexican territory began during the administration of Joe Biden (2021–2025) and intensified after Donald Trump returned to power. The information collected, the U.S. paper reported then, was shared with Mexican authorities.

A few weeks ago, CNN reported that the United States would move “most” of the drones stationed in Africa to Latin America, but did not specify which countries would receive them. It noted that the decision worried some military commanders: activity by Islamic State and Al-Shabaab in Africa, now deprioritized, could increase with the withdrawal of the drones. Colombian media, meanwhile, reported in August an agreement had been reached with the United States to receive three MQ-9 Reapers and to purchase one of its own.

Quito and Bogotá have taken military cooperation with Washington to an unprecedented level. In March, U.S. Southern Command (SouthCom) announced the start of joint operations with Ecuador to confront “designated terrorist organizations.” The government of Daniel Noboa confirmed it but declined to provide further details, saying the information is classified. A few months later, after Abelardo de la Espriella came to power, Colombia followed the same path. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Bogotá had authorized him to start operations “to destroy terrorists and terrorist networks.” Colombia confirmed the announcement and said in a press statement that the decision reaffirms the country’s commitment to “a coordinated hemispheric response.”

Both countries have joined the Shield of the Americas, a coalition that Trump assembled with friendly governments to fight drug trafficking in the region. “These kinds of initiatives serve to defend our democracies in the region,” Colombia’s vice president José Manuel Restrepo said recently during a meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly. Meanwhile, attacks against alleged drug-smuggling boats in the Pacific and the Caribbean have continued — operations Bogotá denounced as extrajudicial executions during Gustavo Petro’s government (2022–2026). At least 230 people have already died, with no evidence that the strikes have been effective at reducing the flow of drugs into the United States.

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