Brits heading abroad this summer are being warned that as many as 85,000 flights could be cut in June if disruption linked to the Iran conflict continues to hit global jet fuel supplies. Airlines across Europe are already reducing schedules, fuel prices are climbing again and some travel experts now believe the industry could face its biggest summer strain since the pandemic.

The warning comes as carriers quietly trim flights ahead of the busy holiday season, with aviation analysts saying the situation could deteriorate quickly if supplies remain under pressure through the coming weeks.

Why airlines are suddenly cutting flights before the summer rush

For most passengers, the first signs are already appearing.

Flights have started disappearing from schedules, some routes are being consolidated and airlines are preparing for the possibility of further disruption if fuel becomes harder or more expensive to secure.

According to aviation analytics company Cirium, airlines removed more than 13,000 flights from May schedules over a two week period alone. During the same timeframe, more than two million seats vanished from planned capacity across global carriers.

Travel consultant Paul Charles warned that airlines may eventually have to reduce up to 10 per cent of flights if the pressure on jet fuel continues. Based on current schedules, that could mean around 85,000 flights being cancelled in June.

Airlines are increasingly making those decisions weeks in advance rather than waiting until the last minute. Industry insiders say carriers would rather cut flights early than leave passengers stranded at airports during peak holiday season.

The problems began escalating after the conflict involving Iran disrupted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes. Since then, aviation fuel markets have become increasingly unstable.

Fuel prices surged after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran earlier this year, while airlines operating through Gulf airspace have faced additional operational disruption linked to airspace closures and rerouted flights.

Some of the worst affected carriers so far include Gulf based airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad.

Jet fuel prices are climbing again and airlines are feeling the pressure

Behind the scenes, airlines are facing a difficult balancing act. Passenger demand for summer travel remains strong, but operating costs are rising sharply as jet fuel becomes more expensive and harder to source.

Data from the International Air Transport Association showed average global jet fuel prices rose again last week after several weeks of decline. Prices remain dramatically higher than they were at the end of February.

Analysts say the issue goes far beyond the Middle East itself.

Countries in Asia are also struggling to secure enough crude oil supplies for refining, which is reducing jet fuel exports worldwide. Experts say that chain reaction is now starting to affect global aviation markets.

Matt Smith, commodity research director at Kpler, described the situation as a “slow motion car crash” during an interview with CNBC.

He warned that global jet fuel exports have dropped sharply in recent months and said the knock on effects are likely to spread further if the situation continues.

Several airlines are now looking for ways to offset rising costs without heavily increasing ticket prices.

That could mean passengers end up paying more for extras instead.

Some carriers have already increased baggage fees, while others are tightening cabin luggage rules on cheaper fares. Lufthansa recently introduced a lower cost fare category on some European routes that only includes a small personal bag.

Airlines in the United States including Delta, American Airlines and United have also raised some baggage charges in recent months.

What it could mean for holidaymakers flying from the UK and Spain

For now, travel experts stress that most flights are still operating normally and there is no blanket warning against travelling.

But there is growing concern about what could happen if fuel shortages worsen closer to peak summer season.

Rory Boland from consumer group Which? Travel said travellers are understandably nervous after the recent wave of cancellations, although he pointed out that overall cancellation rates are still relatively low compared to normal industry disruption.

His advice is for travellers to book package holidays where possible, as they offer stronger financial protection if flights are cancelled or significantly changed.

Meanwhile, the UK government has introduced temporary flexibility measures allowing airlines to combine passengers from different flights onto fewer aircraft in order to reduce fuel consumption.

That means some passengers could end up moved onto different services from the ones they originally booked. The policy has already sparked criticism from consumer groups, which argue that passengers should not lose protections simply because airlines are trying to cut costs.

At the same time, some economists are warning the situation could become more serious if the conflict drags on through the summer.

Richard Murphy, emeritus professor at Sheffield University Management School, said there is now “a very good chance” some people may struggle to take their planned summer holidays this year if fuel shortages intensify.

Even airlines that appear relatively protected are starting to acknowledge the risks.

Germany’s Lufthansa recently admitted the war in the Middle East is creating growing uncertainty around its financial outlook, although the airline said it has already secured most of its fuel supply for the year in advance.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has also publicly acknowledged that some travellers may eventually need to rethink holiday plans if disruption continues.

Despite that, governments continue to insist there is currently no immediate need for passengers to cancel trips.

For now, airports remain busy, flights are still departing and summer bookings continue. But with airlines already cutting schedules, fuel prices climbing again and warnings of up to 85,000 flights potentially disappearing in June, the industry is clearly preparing for a difficult few months ahead.

Palma’s beach lifeguards have warned they are prepared to stage a total strike later this summer after talks with the City Council collapsed, raising concerns over safety and services at some of Mallorca’s busiest beaches.

The industrial action has been called for Wednesday June 24, one of the island’s most important summer holidays, when thousands of residents and tourists are expected to gather along the coastline for Sant Joan celebrations. Union representatives say relations with Palma Town Hall have now completely broken down following months of unresolved complaints over staffing, facilities and beach safety.

According to worker representatives, a recent meeting with municipal officials failed to deliver meaningful solutions. Lifeguards claim repeated promises made before the start of the season have not been honoured, leaving employees frustrated and increasingly concerned about conditions on the ground.

Safety concerns raised across Palma beaches

Among the key issues highlighted are missing or incomplete first-aid facilities at several beaches, including Ciudad Jardín and Cala Estancia. Workers also say parts of Playa de Palma continue to operate without adequate safety infrastructure despite the start of the busy tourist season.

Union officials argue that basic services expected at major beaches, including showers, toilets and properly maintained buoy systems, remain insufficient in some areas. They claim these shortcomings not only affect visitor experience but could also create serious risks during emergencies.

Lifeguards have additionally reported growing concerns over security, with staff allegedly facing thefts and difficult working conditions during crowded beach days. Representatives say frontline workers are being left without the necessary support to manage increasing visitor numbers during the summer months.

Protest planned before June walkout

Before the planned strike, lifeguards intend to stage a public protest outside Palma City Hall on May 28 in an effort to increase pressure on local authorities. Union leaders hope the demonstration will force the council back to the negotiating table before the dispute escalates further.

If the strike goes ahead, several of Palma’s beaches could be left without lifeguard coverage during one of the busiest periods of the year. The warning has already sparked concern among residents and tourism operators, particularly as Mallorca prepares for another record-breaking summer season.

The dispute comes at a sensitive time for the island, with visitor numbers expected to surge throughout June and July. Beaches remain one of Mallorca’s biggest tourist attractions, making safety services a crucial part of the holiday experience.

City Hall has yet to confirm whether further negotiations with unions are planned in the coming weeks.

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The government of Spain has approved the classification of certain reports and administrative documents relating to immigration policy under official secrecy provisions, restricting public access to parts of the material used in decision-making on regularisation processes. The measure was adopted by the Council of Ministers and applies to specific internal documentation connected to immigration management.

It does not apply to all information on immigration policy, but to selected reports and records considered sensitive under existing legal categories. The classification uses two levels defined in Spanish law: “secreto” and “reservado”, which determine the degree of restriction applied to government-held information.

Legal framework governing classified information

The decision is based on the Ley de Secretos Oficiales, which allows the government to classify information when disclosure is considered capable of affecting state interests. The law establishes the categories of “secret” and “restricted”, which limit access to documents for defined periods.

Under this framework, classification can be applied to administrative reports, security-related material and other government documents where disclosure is deemed inappropriate under legal criteria. The system is not specific to immigration policy and has been used across different areas of government administration.

The law also sets out procedures for classification and declassification, although critics have previously argued that it provides limited oversight mechanisms compared with modern transparency standards in other European countries.

Scope of the classified material

The documents affected include internal reports and assessments used in the administration of immigration policy, including processes linked to regularisation of undocumented migrants.

Regularisation procedures in Spain involve administrative decisions that determine eligibility for residence status under specific legal conditions. These processes are supported by internal evaluations and technical reports produced by government departments.

The classification applies to selected material within this administrative framework. Publicly available legislation, policy announcements and general procedural rules remain accessible.

Government procedure and approval

The classification was approved during a meeting of the Council of Ministers, which is responsible for authorising the designation of official secrecy status on government documents.

Once approved, classified material is subject to access restrictions, meaning it cannot be disclosed without authorisation under the terms of the relevant law. The duration of classification depends on the category assigned and the legal criteria applied at the time of designation.

No timeline has been provided for declassification of the documents involved in this case.

Context of immigration policy administration

Immigration policy in Spain is managed through a combination of national legislation and administrative procedures overseen by government departments. Regularisation processes are used in certain circumstances to grant legal status to individuals who meet defined requirements.

These processes are supported by internal assessments, statistical data and policy evaluations used by government bodies in decision-making. The classification affects access to some of this supporting material rather than the legal framework itself.

Spain has previously carried out regularisation programmes under different administrations, each involving administrative review of eligibility criteria and documentation requirements.

Transparency and access considerations

The use of secrecy classifications has periodically been a subject of debate in Spain, particularly in relation to access to public information. The current legal framework predates the modern Spanish constitution and has been the subject of calls for reform from various institutions and civil society groups.

Supporters of reform argue that updated legislation would provide clearer rules on access to government documents and improve transparency. The existing system remains in force and continues to regulate the handling of classified material.

The government has not indicated that the classification decision represents a change in overall immigration policy, focusing instead on the handling of specific internal documents.

Implications for public access to information

As a result of the classification, access to the affected reports is restricted to authorised government personnel. External disclosure is not permitted under the terms of the law unless the documents are declassified through formal procedures.

The decision applies only to the specified material and does not alter existing immigration laws or public-facing policy information. Administrative processes relating to immigration continue to operate under established legal frameworks.

Further details on the scope of the classification or the specific documents involved have not been made public beyond the formal decision of the Council of Ministers.