There is a man who whispers in Raúl Castro’s ear. He speaks to him during the May Day parade in Havana or puts his arm in the way if a woman tries to take the former president’s hand—as though she needs reassurance that he is still alive. When Castro delivered speeches in Revolution Square—always less fiery than his brother Fidel’s—this man stood behind him, steadfast in the scorching tropical heat. When Raúl received Pope Francis in the Cuban capital, the same man was there, watching his every move. Those who know him say he is Castro’s “darling.” They also say he has an extra finger due to a congenital condition, and that his inner circle has given him a nickname: El Cangrejo—The Crab. His name is Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro; he is Raúl’s grandson and his bodyguard. For months now, however, he seems to be guarding something far larger: not just his grandfather’s back, but the fate of his country.

Rodríguez Castro has become the bodyguard not only of Castro but also of the negotiations between Cuba and the United States. El Cangrejo has been present at the talks that have been taking place since the start of the year—talks Cuba initially denied were happening. El Cangrejo traveled to the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) summit to meet with advisers to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. When President Miguel Díaz-Canel acknowledged for the first time in March that they were negotiating with the Trump administration, El Cangrejo was there. El Cangrejo was spotted in a solemn position at the farewell ceremony for the Cuban military personnel killed during the operation that captured Nicolás Maduro. El Cangrejo took part in the visit of U.S. officials to Havana on April 10, during which Cuba was presented with an ultimatum to release political prisoners—one it failed to meet. And this past Thursday, when the head of the CIA landed on the island to “seriously address economic and security issues,” El Cangrejo could not be absent.

Even so, almost no Cuban today can explain what role Rodríguez Castro plays at the moment of greatest tension in decades between Washington and Havana. People barely know how he speaks, what his voice sounds like, or what he thinks or believes. “El Cangrejo matters because he is family, not because he has any individual political capital of his own, beyond being a trusted member of a family clan,” says Cuban intellectual Alina Bárbara López.

Once, in 2017, a young man was spotted on a platform at Varadero beach, sweating, singing, and dancing to the reggaeton beat of the popular duo Gente de Zona. He would have gone unnoticed were it not for what was written on his shirt: he was wearing a New York Yankees jersey with the words “El Cangrejo” emblazoned across it in large letters. Other extravagances from those years also drew attention: yacht trips, lobster fishing, VIP parties, flights on private planes.

Yet people still know very little about Rodríguez Castro beyond what he and his family have chosen to reveal. Juan Almeida García, son of the late Cuban Vice President Juan Almeida Bosque, who grew up in Raúl’s household as a child, says that El Cangrejo is without question “his favorite grandson.” Being the firstborn grandson, combined with the insecurities he carried from being born with a sixth finger, led Castro to be fiercely overprotective. “Raúl Castro has always been very attached to him, and the boy grew up with a rather exaggerated degree of protection from his grandfather,” says Almeida, who was present on the day of his birth—March 24, 1984.

Now 41, Rodríguez Castro is the son of Raul’s daughter Deborah and the late General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, the man who built the GAESA military and economic conglomerate and who died suddenly in 2022. Rodríguez López-Calleja was a figure who was widely considered a potential future leader of Cuba. He studied at the Los Camilitos military academy, graduated with a degree in Accounting and Finance from the University of Havana, and in 2016 was appointed lieutenant colonel in the Ministry of the Interior and head of Castro’s Personal Security Directorate.

Although Castro made him his bodyguard, in reality, “the grandfather is the one who takes care of the grandson and not the grandson who takes care of the grandfather,” says Almeida, who assures that El Cangrejo cultivated a “quite egocentric” personality.

For a long time, people couldn’t guess who the young man who was always seen guarding Raúl was. Today, he is invisible to no one. Maidelys Solano, who is currently desperate because of the power outage in her Bayamo neighborhood, has heard a lot of talk lately about El Cangrejo. “People know who he is, and many say he’s the one who’s going to lead the transition in Cuba; that’s what everyone’s saying. But I think he has to go too, because he’s also benefited from all this,” she says.

Amidst negotiations that escalate and de-escalate each month, where Havana denies details that Washington asserts and where secrecy keeps Cubans on edge, many questions arise surrounding the figure of El Cangrejo: What is the role of someone who holds no institutional or political office, at least not publicly? Or why is he a constant presence in the dialogues with Washington, in which, for example, Díaz-Canel has never been seen, nor has his uncle, Alejandro Castro Espín?

For Cuban historian and writer Enrique del Risco, several possibilities exist: “The most obvious is that El Cangrejo is a frontman for Alejandro Castro Espín, until a few years ago Raúl’s clearest successor,” he maintains. Espín, Castro’s only son, mediated during the talks with the Barack Obama administration that led to the reestablishment of diplomatic relations, but disappeared from public view after the so-called Havana Syndrome affair.

The other possibility del Risco sees is that El Cangrejo “is being groomed as the true successor to the dynasty, and despite never having held any government position, they want to present him to society as a new figure of power.” “His presence in the dialogues would be justified by the need to invest him with an authority he hasn’t acquired until now as a member of the Castro regime. The fact that no one within the regime dares to question the decision to make him a representative of the Cuban government without ever having been part of it gives us an idea of ​​the absolute lack of judgment of a regime that a family runs as if it were their own private business,” the historian asserts.

The hidden power in Cuba

The CIA arrived in Havana with a mission: to personally convey President Trump’s message that the United States is willing to seriously address economic and security issues, but only if Cuba makes fundamental changes, an agency official told Fox News, adding that El Cangrejo had participated in the meeting.

Although it has been confirmed that Castro’s grandson is part of the negotiation process, the image released by the CIA focuses on Ramón Romero Curbelo, the head of intelligence services in Cuba, a face that Cubans barely recognize or wouldn’t imagine could be the one calling the shots in the country. The image has brought to the forefront of public debate a question that remains unanswerable: Who really runs the island today, or is the power structure even identifiable?

The intellectual Alina Bárbara Rodríguez, who has directly faced repression, claims to have noticed what she calls “a formal and an informal power” on the island. The former is occupied by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, along with Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, and others who hold positions in the government or the Communist Party. The latter power is unnameable. “It’s that hidden, deep, informal state; it’s difficult to know because it’s not designed for us to know. But it’s clear that there’s a very close relationship between them, one that involves family, patronage, and a technocratic military structure. And Curbelo’s figure is fundamental to that apparatus. That’s why none of the people connected to the formal state are present at the most important meetings,” Rodríguez maintains.

Beyond the statement from the Communist Party of Cuba, which insists that the meeting with the CIA made it clear that Cuba does not represent a threat to U.S. national security, the encounter with the agency’s director, John Ratcliffe, leaves several implicit messages. “First, it confirms that there is an effort on the part of the U.S. government to produce some kind of change in Cuba, beyond what previous administrations have done,” asserts historian and political scientist Armando Chaguaceda. “Whether that change translates into an economic shift, a step toward capitalism, with a political realignment in favor of the U.S. without democratization—which is not the goal for which we Cubans have fought—remains to be seen.”

A bitter spring in the southern part of North America. Tensions between Mexico and the United States are escalating rapidly, straining the very fibers and tendons that, until a few weeks ago, had sustained the bilateral relationship without much difficulty. The smooth and fruitful security cooperation that characterized the first year of Donald Trump’s administration has recently turned into a nightmare, with developments that paint a rather bizarre picture — some of which are cause for concern for the Mexican government led by Claudia Sheinbaum, such as the growing presence of CIA agents in the country. This week, U.S. media outlets revealed that the intelligence agency orchestrated the March car bomb attack against a mid-level operative of the Sinaloa Cartel near the capital. Both governments have denied the information, with varying degrees of intensity.

The news broke Tuesday afternoon. In a report co-authored by eight people, CNN reported that the CIA had “facilitated” the attack that killed Francisco Beltrán, alias “El Payín,” a mid-level figure in the criminal organization, on March 28. Beltrán was in a pickup truck with his driver on a highway near Mexico City. The driver had picked him up from Felipe Ángeles Airport, one of the two airports serving the metropolitan area. Video footage from a passing car shows the explosion and then the truck veering across several lanes before crashing. Both men died instantly. The incident, which occurred on a weekend, was surprising, but not enough to halt the news cycle for more than a couple of days. The local prosecutor’s office said it was investigating the matter. Life went on.

On Tuesday, hours after the CNN report, and following statements from both governments denying the information, The New York Times clarified the matter, noting that the CIA had provided “intelligence and planning” for the operation, but that none of its agents had acted on the ground. The newspaper asserted that Mexican authorities had carried out the attack. On Wednesday, Sheinbaum addressed the entire video and, referring to the Times article, called it “a fiction about the size of the universe.” In Washington, the reaction, limited to the CIA, focused on the CNN report. On Tuesday, a spokesperson called the information false and said it “serves as nothing more than a PR campaign for the cartels.”

At different times, the denials from both governments might have resonated more strongly with the public, but in light of the events of recent weeks, doubts now surround their statements. The shadow of the CIA looms large over Mexico, which is now unable to withstand the pressure from Washington. Mass arrests and prisoner transfers to the U.S. are no longer enough. In its renewed war on drugs, the Trump administration wants more. The Republican himself stated a few days ago that they had deployed a “land force” that made things “much easier,” without providing further details — statements that take on a new meaning after the information coming to light in recent days.

This is the second time in less than a month that the presence of CIA agents on the ground in Mexico has unsettled the Sheinbaum administration, which is highly sensitive to the neighboring country’s encroachment on its territory. In April, a car accident involving two CIA agents in Chihuahua revealed their involvement in dismantling a synthetic drug lab in the mountains. Sheinbaum and her security team, headed by Omar García Harfuch, denied any knowledge of the agents’ activities and pointed the finger at the local government, controlled by the opposition National Action Party (PAN). The ruling Morena party’s legislative wing, with a majority in the federal chambers, took up the mantle in the offensive against the local government and requested the governor’s appearance before the Senate. And then, the Rocha case broke.

Ten days after the scandal in Chihuahua and exactly one month after the attack that killed “El Payín,” the U.S. Department of Justice released the drug trafficking indictment against the current governor of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha, of the Morena party, and nine other current and former officials. The indictment, rich in conclusions but sparse in supporting evidence, which prosecutors are holding back, alleges a scheme of collaboration between Rocha and one of the factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, led by the two sons of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, one of the organization’s historical leaders, who remain at large. According to the document, Los Chapitos supported Rocha in his electoral campaigns in exchange for preferential treatment in his business dealings.

In Mexico, all these events have complicated the government’s life to a degree that was unimaginable just a few weeks ago. CIA interference and accusations of narco-politics against the ruling party illustrate the depth of U.S. intervention in the country. During these 15 months of shared governance — Trump in Washington and Sheinbaum in Mexico — the suspicion of a growing U.S. presence in the south has been steadily increasing. Major arrests and operations, such as the one that ended the life of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, “El Mencho,” in February, were reported in Mexican government statements, which cited the support of U.S. law enforcement agencies. Intelligence activities, such as drone overflights, were leaked to the press — situations that Mexico acknowledged but limited to the permissiveness of its laws.

What happened next somewhat changes the picture. Layers of strange movements are piling up, fueled by the collaboration of criminals Mexico has sent north in the last year and three months, particularly the old leaders and key figures of the Sinaloa Cartel, specifically El Chapo’s sons and some of his former lieutenants. Their role in the crackdown on Rocha and his associates appears crucial, pending further details from the U.S. Department of Justice. On both sides of the border, questions are now focused on the ultimate goals of the Trump administration. This week, Terry Cole, director of the diminished DEA, remarked, with Rocha in mind, that “this is just the beginning of what’s to come.” He added, “There’s no doubt that the narco-traffickers and high-ranking government officials in Mexico have been in bed for years.”

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The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency on Tuesday denied that it was involved in the murder of a Sinaloa Cartel operative last March, as alleged in a CNN report. The media network claims that Francisco Beltrán, known as “El Payín,” did not die in an accident but was murdered, and that his death was “facilitated” by the CIA during a covert operation carried out in the State of Mexico, on the outskirts of Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA), near the capital. The alleged assassination occurred in late March, when the car in which the cartel member was traveling exploded, also killing his driver.

Preliminary reports suggested they were transporting an explosive device that was accidentally triggered. CNN asserts that the device was intentionally planted in the vehicle, citing the State of Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office. CNN’s revelation fuels controversy at a time when Mexico is demanding that the Trump administration continue its war against the cartels through cooperation, not through direct incursions on the ground, which could be considered violations of national sovereignty. CIA spokesperson Liz Lyons called the report “false and salacious” and asserted that it “serves as nothing more than a PR campaign for the cartels and puts American lives at risk.”

“Mexican authorities have maintained extreme secrecy around the explosion, but multiple sources tell CNN that the attack was a targeted assassination, facilitated by CIA operations officers,” the U.S. news outlet reports. These officers are responsible for recruiting and managing foreign sources to gather national security intelligence. The operation against El Payín was not the only one in which CIA agents were directly involved, according to CNN. “The Beltran operation was part of an expanded, and previously unreported, CIA campaign inside Mexico — spearheaded by the agency’s elite and secretive Ground Branch — to dismantle the entrenched cartel networks,” the outlet reports. Without the express authorization of the Mexican federal government, the direct participation of foreign agents in security operations is prohibited by the Constitution.

Last week, Trump himself threatened to launch ground offensives against the cartels in Mexico, after praising attacks targeting vessels that Washington accuses — without evidence — of drug trafficking. “If they’re not going to do the job, we will,” the president said. During a hearing on Tuesday in the House of Representatives, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called on Mexico to take action against the cartels so that his country “doesn’t have to do it.” Although Trump and Hegseth have discussed the issue in terms of a possibility, CNN reports that the CIA’s “deadly attacks” in Mexico have been occurring for at least a year, mostly targeting mid-level cartel members, such as El Payín. The network cites unnamed Mexican officials who claim that “the lethality of their operations has been seriously ramped up.”

Mexico’s Secretary of Security Omar García Harfuch has also rejected the CNN investigation, asserting that cooperation with the United States takes the form of intelligence sharing and institutional coordination. “The Mexican government categorically rejects any account that seeks to normalize, justify, or suggest the existence of lethal, covert, or unilateral operations by foreign agencies on national territory,” he stated via X. “In Mexico, operational actions are the exclusive responsibility of the competent Mexican authorities,” he added. García Harfuch emphasized that “cooperation without subordination” between the two nations has enabled the capture of key targets, the seizure of drugs and weapons, and the destruction of clandestine laboratories. Meanwhile, the State of Mexico Attorney General’s Office has denied having confirmed to CNN that an explosive device had been hidden in El Payín’s vehicle. “The Attorney General’s Office is conducting an investigation […] and has not yet reached a conclusion regarding the causes and circumstances that led to his death,” it stated.

The level of involvement by U.S. security agencies without authorization from the Mexican federal government has strained bilateral relations. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is convinced that the Trump administration’s actions should be viewed as foreign interference and a violation of national sovereignty, according to sources with access to the National Palace. For the president, they add, rather than a campaign against the cartels, this is a political maneuver ahead of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States. It is in this context that Washington’s explosive accusation against the governor of Sinaloa (currently on leave), Rubén Rocha, of allegedly collaborating with the Sinaloa Cartel, takes place. On Tuesday, Terrance Cole, the head of the DEA, warned that the accusation against Rocha is “just the beginning of what is to come in Mexico,” alluding to other officials and politicians allegedly linked to drug trafficking.

U.S. involvement in Mexico came to light following the deaths in a car accident of two CIA officers who had participated in the dismantling of a drug lab in Chihuahua. “The level of CIA involvement with operations has varied, according to the sources, from more passive intelligence sharing and providing general support to direct participation in assassination operations,” CNN reports. The network explains that the operation against El Payín, a mid-level cartel operative, is part of a strategy “to dismantle entire cartel networks, which involves not only removing those at the very top but also identifying vulnerabilities throughout the organization and systematically targeting lower-tier players who serve as key cogs in the trafficking enterprise.”

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