A bitter spring in the southern part of North America. Tensions between Mexico and the United States are escalating rapidly, straining the very fibers and tendons that, until a few weeks ago, had sustained the bilateral relationship without much difficulty. The smooth and fruitful security cooperation that characterized the first year of Donald Trump’s administration has recently turned into a nightmare, with developments that paint a rather bizarre picture — some of which are cause for concern for the Mexican government led by Claudia Sheinbaum, such as the growing presence of CIA agents in the country. This week, U.S. media outlets revealed that the intelligence agency orchestrated the March car bomb attack against a mid-level operative of the Sinaloa Cartel near the capital. Both governments have denied the information, with varying degrees of intensity.

The news broke Tuesday afternoon. In a report co-authored by eight people, CNN reported that the CIA had “facilitated” the attack that killed Francisco Beltrán, alias “El Payín,” a mid-level figure in the criminal organization, on March 28. Beltrán was in a pickup truck with his driver on a highway near Mexico City. The driver had picked him up from Felipe Ángeles Airport, one of the two airports serving the metropolitan area. Video footage from a passing car shows the explosion and then the truck veering across several lanes before crashing. Both men died instantly. The incident, which occurred on a weekend, was surprising, but not enough to halt the news cycle for more than a couple of days. The local prosecutor’s office said it was investigating the matter. Life went on.

On Tuesday, hours after the CNN report, and following statements from both governments denying the information, The New York Times clarified the matter, noting that the CIA had provided “intelligence and planning” for the operation, but that none of its agents had acted on the ground. The newspaper asserted that Mexican authorities had carried out the attack. On Wednesday, Sheinbaum addressed the entire video and, referring to the Times article, called it “a fiction about the size of the universe.” In Washington, the reaction, limited to the CIA, focused on the CNN report. On Tuesday, a spokesperson called the information false and said it “serves as nothing more than a PR campaign for the cartels.”

At different times, the denials from both governments might have resonated more strongly with the public, but in light of the events of recent weeks, doubts now surround their statements. The shadow of the CIA looms large over Mexico, which is now unable to withstand the pressure from Washington. Mass arrests and prisoner transfers to the U.S. are no longer enough. In its renewed war on drugs, the Trump administration wants more. The Republican himself stated a few days ago that they had deployed a “land force” that made things “much easier,” without providing further details — statements that take on a new meaning after the information coming to light in recent days.

This is the second time in less than a month that the presence of CIA agents on the ground in Mexico has unsettled the Sheinbaum administration, which is highly sensitive to the neighboring country’s encroachment on its territory. In April, a car accident involving two CIA agents in Chihuahua revealed their involvement in dismantling a synthetic drug lab in the mountains. Sheinbaum and her security team, headed by Omar García Harfuch, denied any knowledge of the agents’ activities and pointed the finger at the local government, controlled by the opposition National Action Party (PAN). The ruling Morena party’s legislative wing, with a majority in the federal chambers, took up the mantle in the offensive against the local government and requested the governor’s appearance before the Senate. And then, the Rocha case broke.

Ten days after the scandal in Chihuahua and exactly one month after the attack that killed “El Payín,” the U.S. Department of Justice released the drug trafficking indictment against the current governor of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha, of the Morena party, and nine other current and former officials. The indictment, rich in conclusions but sparse in supporting evidence, which prosecutors are holding back, alleges a scheme of collaboration between Rocha and one of the factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, led by the two sons of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, one of the organization’s historical leaders, who remain at large. According to the document, Los Chapitos supported Rocha in his electoral campaigns in exchange for preferential treatment in his business dealings.

In Mexico, all these events have complicated the government’s life to a degree that was unimaginable just a few weeks ago. CIA interference and accusations of narco-politics against the ruling party illustrate the depth of U.S. intervention in the country. During these 15 months of shared governance — Trump in Washington and Sheinbaum in Mexico — the suspicion of a growing U.S. presence in the south has been steadily increasing. Major arrests and operations, such as the one that ended the life of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, “El Mencho,” in February, were reported in Mexican government statements, which cited the support of U.S. law enforcement agencies. Intelligence activities, such as drone overflights, were leaked to the press — situations that Mexico acknowledged but limited to the permissiveness of its laws.

What happened next somewhat changes the picture. Layers of strange movements are piling up, fueled by the collaboration of criminals Mexico has sent north in the last year and three months, particularly the old leaders and key figures of the Sinaloa Cartel, specifically El Chapo’s sons and some of his former lieutenants. Their role in the crackdown on Rocha and his associates appears crucial, pending further details from the U.S. Department of Justice. On both sides of the border, questions are now focused on the ultimate goals of the Trump administration. This week, Terry Cole, director of the diminished DEA, remarked, with Rocha in mind, that “this is just the beginning of what’s to come.” He added, “There’s no doubt that the narco-traffickers and high-ranking government officials in Mexico have been in bed for years.”

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The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency on Tuesday denied that it was involved in the murder of a Sinaloa Cartel operative last March, as alleged in a CNN report. The media network claims that Francisco Beltrán, known as “El Payín,” did not die in an accident but was murdered, and that his death was “facilitated” by the CIA during a covert operation carried out in the State of Mexico, on the outskirts of Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA), near the capital. The alleged assassination occurred in late March, when the car in which the cartel member was traveling exploded, also killing his driver.

Preliminary reports suggested they were transporting an explosive device that was accidentally triggered. CNN asserts that the device was intentionally planted in the vehicle, citing the State of Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office. CNN’s revelation fuels controversy at a time when Mexico is demanding that the Trump administration continue its war against the cartels through cooperation, not through direct incursions on the ground, which could be considered violations of national sovereignty. CIA spokesperson Liz Lyons called the report “false and salacious” and asserted that it “serves as nothing more than a PR campaign for the cartels and puts American lives at risk.”

“Mexican authorities have maintained extreme secrecy around the explosion, but multiple sources tell CNN that the attack was a targeted assassination, facilitated by CIA operations officers,” the U.S. news outlet reports. These officers are responsible for recruiting and managing foreign sources to gather national security intelligence. The operation against El Payín was not the only one in which CIA agents were directly involved, according to CNN. “The Beltran operation was part of an expanded, and previously unreported, CIA campaign inside Mexico — spearheaded by the agency’s elite and secretive Ground Branch — to dismantle the entrenched cartel networks,” the outlet reports. Without the express authorization of the Mexican federal government, the direct participation of foreign agents in security operations is prohibited by the Constitution.

Last week, Trump himself threatened to launch ground offensives against the cartels in Mexico, after praising attacks targeting vessels that Washington accuses — without evidence — of drug trafficking. “If they’re not going to do the job, we will,” the president said. During a hearing on Tuesday in the House of Representatives, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called on Mexico to take action against the cartels so that his country “doesn’t have to do it.” Although Trump and Hegseth have discussed the issue in terms of a possibility, CNN reports that the CIA’s “deadly attacks” in Mexico have been occurring for at least a year, mostly targeting mid-level cartel members, such as El Payín. The network cites unnamed Mexican officials who claim that “the lethality of their operations has been seriously ramped up.”

Mexico’s Secretary of Security Omar García Harfuch has also rejected the CNN investigation, asserting that cooperation with the United States takes the form of intelligence sharing and institutional coordination. “The Mexican government categorically rejects any account that seeks to normalize, justify, or suggest the existence of lethal, covert, or unilateral operations by foreign agencies on national territory,” he stated via X. “In Mexico, operational actions are the exclusive responsibility of the competent Mexican authorities,” he added. García Harfuch emphasized that “cooperation without subordination” between the two nations has enabled the capture of key targets, the seizure of drugs and weapons, and the destruction of clandestine laboratories. Meanwhile, the State of Mexico Attorney General’s Office has denied having confirmed to CNN that an explosive device had been hidden in El Payín’s vehicle. “The Attorney General’s Office is conducting an investigation […] and has not yet reached a conclusion regarding the causes and circumstances that led to his death,” it stated.

The level of involvement by U.S. security agencies without authorization from the Mexican federal government has strained bilateral relations. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is convinced that the Trump administration’s actions should be viewed as foreign interference and a violation of national sovereignty, according to sources with access to the National Palace. For the president, they add, rather than a campaign against the cartels, this is a political maneuver ahead of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States. It is in this context that Washington’s explosive accusation against the governor of Sinaloa (currently on leave), Rubén Rocha, of allegedly collaborating with the Sinaloa Cartel, takes place. On Tuesday, Terrance Cole, the head of the DEA, warned that the accusation against Rocha is “just the beginning of what is to come in Mexico,” alluding to other officials and politicians allegedly linked to drug trafficking.

U.S. involvement in Mexico came to light following the deaths in a car accident of two CIA officers who had participated in the dismantling of a drug lab in Chihuahua. “The level of CIA involvement with operations has varied, according to the sources, from more passive intelligence sharing and providing general support to direct participation in assassination operations,” CNN reports. The network explains that the operation against El Payín, a mid-level cartel operative, is part of a strategy “to dismantle entire cartel networks, which involves not only removing those at the very top but also identifying vulnerabilities throughout the organization and systematically targeting lower-tier players who serve as key cogs in the trafficking enterprise.”

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Bilateral relations between the U.S. and Mexico have entered a new phase — more critical, and with increasingly little room for manoeuvre for Mexico. After the U.S. Department of Justice indicted the governor of Sinaloa and nine other senior officials last week, everything suggests this is only the prelude to a more aggressive U.S. campaign against the links between politics and organised crime.

In recent days, the White House has rolled out new plans, the president and acting attorney general have issued forceful statements, and there have even been moves aimed at tightening the net around Mexico’s diplomatic apparatus north of the border. The pressure is mounting, not only because of the scale of the narcopolitics allegations. In just a few weeks, two key dates for the North American triangle — with Canada included — will begin: the World Cup and, above all, the negotiations to renew the USMCA trade pact, Mexico’s economic lifeline.

Faced with this pressure, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s response has so far been defensive, trying to carve out some space by insisting on Washington’s own obligations: arms trafficking, the drug market, and even the indifference shown toward a handful of extradition requests.

Since this new chapter in the fraught bilateral relationship began, Donald Trump had maintained an unusual silence. On Wednesday, he broke it with his characteristic bluntness: “If they’re [referring to Mexico] not going to do the job, we will.” The threat carries even more weight because it comes paired with the roadmap for his personal war on drugs. Both the Counterterrorism Strategy and the National Drug Strategy, presented this week, are the culmination of the White House’s military intervention campaign in Latin America.

In one of his first acts upon taking office, Trump designated drug cartels as terrorist organizations, a move that goes far beyond mere rhetoric, opening the door to military interventions in third countries. This has already happened in the Caribbean with the U.S. strikes on alleged drug boats. The documents released this week confirm and deepen this interventionist approach: “We will continue our military and law enforcement campaigns against all the cartels and gangs designated as terrorist organizations,” reads the 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy. “We will do so in concert with local governments when they are willing and able to work with us. If they cannot, or will not, we will still take whatever action is necessary to protect our country.”

For Mexico, the legal threat has already materialized with the indictment by a New York court against the governor of Sinalos Rubén Rocha Moya — now on leave — and nine other Sinaloa officials. The Department of Justice has requested their arrest and extradition on charges of working for the Sinaloa Cartel. And all signs suggest they will not be the last. On Wednesday, the acting U.S. attorney general, Todd Blanche, said — without offering details — that more charges are ready against Mexican politicians allegedly linked to drug trafficking. Sheinbaum has again insisted that Washington “send evidence,” while also opening the door to a Mexican judicial investigation into the accused.

The escalation also has a significant prequel. An accident three weeks ago in the mountains of Chihuahua revealed that two CIA agents were conducting joint operations with the state attorney’s office. According to Raúl Benítez Manaut, a researcher at the Center for Research on North America, that controversy was the trigger for everything that has followed.

“The president’s response, wrapped in a very pronounced nationalism, did not sit well with the White House,” notes the academic, who does not believe there will be any developments in the short term: “The extradition treaty with the United States gives Mexico 60 days to proceed with the request. Given the Attorney General’s Office investigation, the accused will almost certainly file for legal protection, which will give them even more time.”

The timeline also coincides with the start of the World Cup, which Mexico and the United States are co-hosting with Canada. According to the academic, the soccer tournament will be “a buffer against tension” — a pause for which preparations are largely complete and that will now take priority.

“The U.S. security apparatus is already here — the FBI, the CIA — overseeing the security protocols. They are concerned, for example, about the Guadalajara venue,” says Manaut.

He predicts that, until after the World Cup, there will be “no movement, no arrests, no destruction of laboratories, for example.” Regarding what might happen afterward, everything will depend on the evolution of the Rocha case in Sinaloa. “If there are no credible advances in the Mexican investigation, a mini-Maduro operation involving a governor from one of the northern states cannot be ruled out,” the expert notes, referring to the U.S. capture of the Venezuelan president from the Presidential Palace in Caracas.

The pressure also has another crucial variable. The Mexican economy is going through a dangerous period of weakness, and, coupled with Trump’s trade war, the USMCA has become more important than ever. “If the U.S. decides to walk away from the negotiating table, Mexico will have no alternative but to make some concessions on security,” Manaut adds. The Mexican government has stepped up its displays of effectiveness in the fight against crime, with a sharp rise in arrests — including the killing of “El Mencho,” the most‑wanted drug lord, in an operation — as well as increased drug seizures and the transfer of nearly 100 jailed cartel bosses across the border.

Acting U.S. Attorney General Blanche alluded to these extraditions during his recent, controversial statements. “One consequence of having a lot of the leaders of some of these cartels brought here over the past year […] is some of them will likely want to cooperate, and that cooperation could lead to additional charges.”

For analyst David Pérez Esperanza, who served on the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System during the administration of Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, “The U.S. is making political use of the statements made by these detainees, increasing the pressure and leaving very few alternatives.”

Another twist in the pressure campaign emerged on Thursday. According to CBS, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is considering closing some Mexican consulates, accusing the diplomatic network of trying to influence the November midterm elections, where Trump’s control of Congress is at stake.

Analyst Esparza believes Sheinbaum is up against a dilemma that is increasingly hard to avoid: “Either maintain a defensive nationalist discourse as leader of the Morena party, or act pragmatically against corruption, as she has already done by removing Attorney General Gertz and Adán Augusto López from their posts.” The fight against corruption, the academic concludes, “is the great unfinished business of the Fourth Transformation [the political movement launched by López Obardor], which has so far only been a narrative.”

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