The number of green cards granted in the United States has plummeted under the Trump administration. According to an analysis by the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank based in Washington, the figure has fallen to half is previous level, with the drop disproportionately affecting Cubans, asylum seekers, and refugees. The study notes that the Trump administration has virtually halted the approval of permanent residency for Cubans, a group historically favored by U.S. immigration policies. At the same time, arrests of these individuals by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have skyrocketed.

According to the study, green card approvals for Cubans — which exceeded 10,000 in October 2024 — plummeted to just a few dozen by the end of last year, a 99.8% drop, while apprehensions rose from fewer than 200 to more than 1,000 per month during the same period, a 463% increase. David Bier, Cato’s immigration director, told EL PAÍS that the slowdown in processing residency applications “is part of a broader strategy to deport or otherwise force immigrants to leave the United States.”

In South Florida, home to the largest Cuban community in the country, many who once would have qualified under the Cuban Adjustment Act — which allows Cubans to apply for residency after one year in the United States — now find themselves in limbo, with their cases stalled and no clear path to regularization.

The Cuban vote was key to the Republican shift in Miami‑Dade County in the 2024 presidential election, but Trump’s immigration policy has eroded some of the president’s support. Although most Cuban Americans continue to back Trump’s hard‑line stance toward Cuba, a majority opposes the deportation of Cubans with no criminal record and supports legal migration pathways, according to recent polls.

The Cato report also notes that family‑based green‑card approvals fell by 54% between July 2025 and January 2026, and that approvals for refugees dropped by 99%, despite an increase in applications. The analysis documents cases of spouses of U.S. citizens whose residency applications were pending and who were detained when their status expired while they awaited a decision. It also cites the case of a Cuban man who entered legally in 2024 and was detained in 2026 despite having a residency application in process, as well as other cases involving asylum seekers and individuals with parole or temporary status who have been arrested.

The Trump administration, which has promised to carry out the largest deportation campaign in U.S. history, has implemented a series of measures to restrict legal immigration. Late last year, it suspended all immigration processing — including applications for citizenship, residency, and asylum — for citizens of a growing list of countries that now includes Cuba and Venezuela. Some estimates suggest that one million Cubans could be affected by the measure.

Trump has also ended temporary protected status and humanitarian programs that allowed hundreds of thousands to live and work legally in the country for up to two years, and revoked their work permits. Cubans who entered through a Biden-era program known as CHNV can, in theory, apply for permanent residency after one year and one day in the country under the Cuban Adjustment Act. However, many have been unable to move forward with that process and, faced with uncertainty, have opted to apply for asylum as an alternative — yet even then, they have been detained despite having pending applications. The administration has restricted access to asylum, leading to a significant drop in approvals. The administration has restricted access to asylum, and there has been a significant drop in approvals.

Authorities have arrested people during their hearings in immigration courts, as well as in large‑scale operations with local police on highways and at worksites. Trump has ordered mass deployments of immigration agents in Democrat‑led cities, resulting in at least three deaths, dozens of injuries, and thousands of arrests. These policies have led to a cascade of lawsuits in federal courts.

When asked by EL PAÍS about the Cato study, a spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security said in an email that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) “is ensuring that all foreign nationals from high-risk countries are subjected to the highest possible levels of verification and screening.”

“USCIS is conducting a comprehensive review of any person, from any location, who poses a threat to the United States, including those identified in the president’s most recent proclamation to restore order and the rule of law to our immigration system,” said the spokesperson.

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The fate of a few artworks by Frida Kahlo, Diego Rivera, and José Clemente Orozco has Mexico on edge, to the point of practically becoming a matter of state. Ever since the announcement early this year of a long-term agreement to transfer the Gelman collection to the Spanish banking giant Banco Santander, which will be responsible for the management (including conservation, research and exhibition) of part of one of the most significant collections of 20th-century Mexican art, a formidable controversy has erupted, forcing Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to step in and try to clarify the situation.

Part of the Mexican art world is accusing the government of favoritism, opacity, and a failure to protect a collection whose core is shielded by strict heritage laws that limit the export of emblematic artworks, in a delicate balance with private business interests. EL PAÍS followed the latest movements of the collection, valued at $356 million. This is the story of how a multimillion-dollar transaction that is commonplace in the art market ended up becoming a phenomenal mess with three main players: the Mexican owners of the art, the Spanish banking giant, and the Mexican government, responsible for overseeing protected works. The story also involves a $150 million loan granted by Santander to the Mexican collector, who put up the collection as collateral for the loan.

The Zambrano family are powerful members of the industrial bourgeoisie of northern Mexico. They own the country’s largest cement company, Cemex, and, like almost all great fortunes, they also have a tradition of art collecting. Following this path, Marcelo Zambrano, the third generation of the family and a Cemex executive, decided to embark on a high-stakes operation: acquiring one of the most important collections of modern Mexican art, the Gelman Collection, which for decades had been shrouded in a long history of intrigue and mystery. In late 2020, the businessman acquired at least a portion of it. The transaction was recorded in the annual tax return of the Vergel Foundation, owned by the American executor who controlled the collection after the death of the original owners.

Since then, Zambrano has been discreetly moving the collection, seeking funding to undertake a multi-million dollar operation. On October 11, 2023, he secured an initial loan from the financial arm of Sotheby’s auction house, as reported by the specialized publication Arteinformado and confirmed by this newspaper through public documents from the District of Columbia Property Registry. The loan was granted to Arte Mexicano por el Mundo, LLC and Comercializadora de Arte del Noreste, the companies established by the businessman in the United States and Mexico, respectively, to market the collection, which had languished for years, unexhibited and unseen by the public.

But years elapsed and the works remained in storage. Then, in late 2024, when the Zambranos already owned the Gelman Collection, there were headlines over an auction held by Sotheby’s in New York, where the Mexican government halted the sale of a painting by María Izquierdo, one of the artists protected by Mexico’s cultural heritage laws, and whose works were not authorized to be in the United States. Furthermore, Mexican authorities forced the sale in Mexico — instead of New York — of a piece by David Alfaro Siqueiros, another protected artist. The remaining works, some 30 in total, were sold in what was the first contact with the art market since the Zambranos entered the scene.

The next public development occurred on January 21 of this year. Banco Santander announced a long-term agreement with the Zambrano family for the management of a portion of the collection—160 out of of approximately 300 works—and their exhibition as the centerpiece of a new cultural center, Faro Santander, which the lender will inaugurate in June in the northern Spanish city of Santander, where the bank’s origins lie. That announcement ignited a wave of criticism, with demands for greater clarity regarding the agreement’s timeline and, above all, the role of Mexico’s National Institute of Fine Arts (INBAL), which must authorize and oversee any removal of the core of the collection from Mexico.

The statements made that day by Daniel Vega Pérez, director of Faro Santander, suggesting that “it’s flexible legislation,” didn’t help matters. Nor did the contradictory figures provided by Mexican authorities as the criticism mounted. First, they said five years, which is the term of the management agreement with Santander, not the export agreements for the artworks. Then they said two years, the usual timeframe in these cases, and a figure that was confirmed by Sheinbaum herself, who assured that the artworks would return to Mexico in 2028.

Santander loan

A crucial and previously unknown fact is that just a week before that press conference in Spain, on January 8, Santander granted Marcelo Zambrano a new loan for $150 million, refinancing the previous loan from Sotheby’s Financial Services. According to the contract registered with the Mexican Ministry of Economy and reviewed by this newspaper, the collection—156 works valued at $356 million—serves as collateral for the loan, which has a term of 12 and a half years.

The agreement, also registered in the U.S. District of Columbia (though without figures), details how these types of transactions work, similar to a mortgage, where the property serves as collateral in case of default. This theoretically opens the door for Santander to become the owner of the collection, although sources close to the negotiations indicate that “there are ways to refinance the loans and avoid that scenario.” Those close to the collectors’ family add that the entire legal framework “strictly adheres to Mexican law.”

The jewel backing the loan is the artist Frida Kahlo. She is also the symbol of the protests by the Mexican art sector, which, in addition to demanding greater transparency from the INBAL, observes with dismay how the country’s modern heritage is being fragmented and sent abroad, despite the express wishes of the Gelman couple that it remain united and within Mexico. Kahlo’s Diego on my mind: $67.5 million. Self-Portrait with Monkeys: $45 million. Another $45 million backed by The Love Embrace of the Universe, the Earth… Gold, silver, and bronze for the pop icon, who presides over a substantial inventory that also includes works by Diego Rivera, José Clemente Orozco, David Alfaro Siqueiros, and María Izquierdo. Just 15 of Frida and Diego’s works represent 97% of the total value of the collection: such is the worth of this imposing artistic couple. Sources in the sector have confirmed that bank loans, common in the art world, usually cover approximately half the value of the collections.

Most of the artists listed in the inventory have been declared National Artistic Monuments, and this is the most sensitive point and the one that raises the most controversy, since the financial transactions involved in this operation are common practice in the market. Regulations restrict the export of works protected under this designation and, in the case of Frida Kahlo, who has the most stringent designation, prohibit her permanent export and urge the authorities to do everything possible to ensure her repatriation. Queried by this newspaper, INBAL declined to comment.

Banco Santander emphasizes that it does not comment specifically on its clients, and add that “in any case, any relationship Santander may have with the Zambrano family is secondary to the management and preservation of the Gelman collection. Under no circumstances will the collection leave Mexico outside of the current agreement, that is, always within the framework of a temporary export authorized by INBAL and in accordance with Mexican law.”

The export of the works

The most critical Mexican collectors and curators point out that, despite the clarification that the export permit for the works is for two years, and not the five initially announced, the INBAL has been more lenient in this case than in others. “The INBAL had been very strict with permits until now,” says a professional who participated in the sector’s public letter requesting greater transparency from the government.

The same source indicates that four Frida Kahlo oil paintings have been for sale in Mexico for years, but they haven’t sold because they’ve been priced at international market rates, and no one is willing to pay that much for works that can’t leave the country. “This Santander situation has set a precedent; now collectors are going to start asking for the same treatment,” the source adds.

The plan to monetize the collection doesn’t end with its piecemeal sale or its planned international tour, which includes stops every two years in Mexico to reassess the condition of the works. Between December of last year and January of this year, separate applications were filed to register the trademark “Gelman Collection” in the European Union (EU), Mexico, and the United States. The EU registration was officially published this Friday, April 24. This registration, filed by Zambrano’s company, protects the trademark from any commercial use, from prints or books to downloading files authenticated with tokens, as well as cultural events and educational services.

While the owners move forward with their collection management plan, controversy is growing within the country. The biennial returns to Mexico fail to satisfy the most vocal critics, who also fear the works may not withstand the repeated travel, and they do not address the underlying problem: a precarious public policy for protecting the country’s modern heritage.

This autumn, the Gelman collection will be the highlight of the opening of the new Faro Santander center. Its opening had been originally planned for this summer, but the image of all the “Fridas” leaving Mexico amidst World Cup euphoria was a scenario the Mexican government couldn’t allow. The current exhibition of part of the collection at the Museum of Modern Art in Mexico City will now run until after the soccer tournament, after which the works will fly to Spain, to return in 2028. This will mark the end of the penultimate chapter of a collection that has always been surrounded by controversy.

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