The Trump administration’s immigration policy and the state of the economy are prompting a shift of Latino voters back toward the Democrats. Although many remain undecided, a new poll shows that in the November midterms, Democratic congressional candidates will receive between six and 10 percentage points more of the Hispanic vote compared with Kamala Harris’s 2024 results. By contrast, Republicans would lose five points of the votes Trump won among this electorate. On November 3, all seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for election, as well as 36 governorships.

That is what the poll conducted by BSP Research and Shaw & Co. for the American Business Immigration Coalition (ABIC) and American Families United (AFU) between September 4 and September 6 reveals, using a sample of 1,353 registered Latino voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.

According to the survey, in House voting intentions the Republican Party would only hold the same level of support it received in 2024 in the state of Georgia, at 25%, although Democrats would gain three points to reach 63%. In Texas, Republicans would fall one point while Democrats would rise three. In Pennsylvania, the shift compared with the 2024 presidential election is larger: the Democratic Party would increase by 10 points to reach 60% of the Latino vote; the recovery is due to a drop experienced by the Republican Party in that state, which would lose 11 percentage points, falling from 37% to 26%.

Although favorable to Democrats, the Latino vote remains volatile, since neither political party commands overwhelming support: 39% have an unfavorable view of the Democrats in Congress, while 63% have an unfavorable view of the Republicans.

The Democrats’ recovery of part of the historic support they lost among Hispanics in the 2024 elections is driven by the community’s discontent with the state of the economy and with the president’s aggressive anti-immigration agenda.

Latino voters surprised in the last elections by contributing to Trump’s victory. Among Hispanic men, he obtained a majority over his Democratic rival for the first time.

Latinos trusted him to improve their economic situation and secure the border. The first has not been achieved, because the cost of living has soared—partly due to the war in Iran and rising fuel prices; as for the second, the border is secure, but the prevailing perception is that immigration policy has gone too far.

“Immigration is once again becoming a major issue for Latinos. And yes, we believe this is significantly harming Republicans in the current elections,” explained Matt Barreto, who oversaw the survey. “Many of them—as we’ve seen in the polls—say they have a personal connection to someone who is undocumented. They know someone [detained or deported], whether in their family or in their close community; likely even in their own church,” he added.

The poll shows that the majority of Latinos, including those who identify as Republicans, believe the Trump administration’s immigration policy—with the criminalization of migrants who had previously resided here legally, and the mass deportations—has gone too far. Sixty-three percent of Latinos in key states say treatment of immigrants is “one of my main concerns” for 2026, and 59% support creating a pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants with family members who are U.S. citizens. Sixty-four percent of Latino Republicans, 68% of independents and 85% of Democrats say they will vote for candidates who prioritize legal status and work permits over mass deportations.

Letter to Trump

The poll’s findings were released during the launch of the Committee of 100’s Unity Campaign, through which more than 200 Hispanic leaders—among them elected officials and representatives of the business, religious, civil rights and community sectors—urge President Trump and congressional leaders to grant work permits and legal protections to long-standing undocumented immigrants.

“We may be MAGA supporters, progressives, or somewhere in between,” they wrote in a new letter to President Trump and congressional leaders. “We are all united in demanding that both Republicans and Democrats in Washington offer long-term solutions for undocumented immigrants who have been here for many years—many of whom have worked, paid taxes and contributed to our communities, families and workplaces for decades—solutions that allow them to live and work legally and without fear.”

Signatories of the letter include Democratic members of Congress such as Representative Delia Ramirez of Illinois and Representatives Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar of Texas, and Republicans such as Florida state senator Ileana Garcia, founder of the group Latinas for Trump.

“Hispanic voters are fed up,” said Massey Villarreal, CEO of Precision Task Group and co-chair of the Committee of 100. “We are losing our workforce because of these deportations. Since January, we have lost 200,000 immigrant workers each month. Simply put, there is no way to sustain our economy without the long-standing immigrants who made our prosperity possible,” he said.

Leaders of several Latino and immigrant organizations, including LULAC, NALEO, UnidosUS, the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and America’s Voice, joined the initiative.

Representative Sylvia Garcia criticized that the immigration issue is out of control and emphasized that the poll shows “the disconnect” with citizens, which “lies in the fact that Washington is not doing anything aimed at finding a real solution.” The congresswoman advocated passing the American Dream and Promise Act, which would open a pathway to legalize beneficiaries of DACA and TPS (Temporary Protected Status), programs that have been rescinded by the government.

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The U.S. Department of the Treasury struck on Tuesday at the criminal network led by Ismael Zambada Sicairos, alias Mayito Flaco, leader of a criminal organization operating in Sinaloa, Durango and Baja California, among other regions of Mexico. The son of longtime Sinaloa cartel boss Ismael Mayo Zambada, Sicairos appears as a person of interest to the U.S. government, which has sanctioned a total of 21 individuals, as well as 25 companies linked to the network.

Among the 21 individuals, in addition to the organization’s leadership, is Carlos Torres, the former husband of Baja California governor Marina del Pilar Ávila, of Mexico’s governing party Morena. Torres and Ávila have been at the center of one of the great controversies in the country’s public life since last year. In May, the governor and her then-husband announced that the United States had canceled their visas. Rumors about Torres’ ties to organized crime began to emerge in the media. At the end of the year, Del Pilar announced her separation from Torres. In January, Televisa’s N+ Focus reported that the Attorney General’s Office (FGR) was investigating Torres for alleged links to organized crime, a situation that was later confirmed.

After their separation, Ávila and Torres tried to cushion the blow. Torres said that “it is not an investigation based on facts.” For her part, the governor pointed out that “Carlos has already issued a position. I am convinced that the Attorney General’s Office is an extremely serious institution that is going to carry out an in-depth investigation and the facts will be clarified.” The US Treasury statement now contends that “this Sinaloa Cartel-enabled narco-corruption has reached the highest levels of the Baja California state government. At the center of this narco-corruption scheme is the ex-husband of the Governor of Baja California, Carlos Torres, and his brother Luis Torres.”

The OFAC accuses Carlos Torres of using “his political influence to facilitate cartel activities and protect the Sinaloa Cartel from government and law enforcement intervention in Baja California.” The agency says that Torres has an alliance with Juan José Ponce Félix, alias El Ruso, the strongman of Mayito Flaco in Mexicali, a city east of Tijuana and one of the strongholds of his criminal group in Baja California. In addition, it says that Torres received payments from the criminal group through Pedro Mendivil, former director of Public Security of Mexicali, arrested in July for crimes of forced disappearance, vehicle theft and criminal association. Mendivil was later released.

U.S. authorities also link Torres to Rafael Buenrostro Marín, a former Customs official assigned to Chihuahua and former legislative advisor to the Baja California state government. The Treasury places Buenrostro near another of the leaders of the Mayito Flaco faction, Jose Angel Rivera Zazueta, alias Don Flaco, arrested last week in Mexico City. At the time, the authorities said that Zazueta is viewed as a coordinator and financier of an organization dedicated to the transfer of chemical precursors from China to Mexico and the United States.

Following the publication of the OFAC statement, the Mexican government’s Financial Intelligence Unit announced that it will include “the subjects included in OFAC’s designation,” including Torres, “to the Blocked Persons List (LPB), as a preventive measure of an administrative nature.”

Beyond Torres, El Ruso, Zazueta and Sicairos himself, the OFAC statement describes for the first time in detail some of the most important circles of the organization. For example, it establishes the criminal leader’s close circle, made up of the Mendoza Uriarte brothers, Jorge Luis and Francisco, workers that Sicairos inherited from his father. Jorge Luis, alias Güero Chompas, “is now the head of security for Los Mayos,” according to the agency. Also included in that group is Hildegardo Gastelum García, alias Aldo, “one of Mayito Flaco’s most trusted advisors, as well as a significant narcotics trafficker, and the owner of a Culiacan-based hotel business who uses his illicit revenue streams to finance Los Mayos’ war against the Chapitos.”

The aforementioned war refers to the conflict between the two groups following the arrest of Mayo Zambada in July 2024 in Culiacán, after the sons of his old partner, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, betrayed him and handed him over to U.S. authorities. That movement opened an unbridgeable rift between the two families – Los Mayos and Los Chapitos – and their influential groups, which has left thousands of people murdered and disappeared in the state since then. Until now, the group hardest hit in the war seemed to be Los Chapitos, also besieged by the authorities. The arrests of members of the opposing group in recent times have also increased, although the war does not seem to be ending.

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A Venezuelan man wounded by an immigration agent during an operation in Austin on September 20 was charged Tuesday by the federal government with assault, resisting authority and impeding the work of federal officers, according to a criminal complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas.

Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez made his initial court appearance on Tuesday; his lawyers were not aware of this criminal complaint at the time. Instead, they found out after he failed to show up for a meeting with them.

Garcés Pérez, a DoorDash worker, was shot and wounded by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer during an operation as he was picking up a restaurant order that he was meant to deliver. Soon after being shot he was taken to the Dell Seton Medical Center, where doctors ran tests in preparation for surgery. Instead, he was discharged four hours later and taken to a detention center two hours from Austin. The bullet is still lodged in his back.

When his lawyers were finally able to see him, “he was suffering from considerable pain and dizziness, and needed painkillers that he had not been given,” reads an email sent by the office of the lawyer Kate Lincoln Goldfinch. “Instead of providing him with the vital medical attention he needs, the DHS (Department of Homeland Security) and the government are playing with his life.”

A detention hearing is scheduled for Wednesday to determine whether the migrant will remain in custody or be released ahead of a possible trial.

The criminal complaint

The nine-page document explains that the two ICE officers involved in the operation — identified by the initials L.G. and D.F. — were in two unmarked SUVs and that only one of them had a body camera.

The complaint claims that on that day they saw Garcés’s vehicle, a blue Toyota sedan, parked in front of a restaurant, and that when D.F. checked databases he linked it to the Venezuelan national and saw he had a final order of removal. When Wilber Garcés, 28, left the restaurant after picking up the food he was going to deliver, he confirmed he was the person in the photo on the immigration documents. The Venezuelan got into his car and was followed by the two agents.

The complaint alleges that shortly after they turned on their police lights, L.G. blocked the sedan with his SUV and that was when the Venezuelan stopped. Up to that point, according to the agents’ account in their testimony, they had not struck Garcés’s car.

As they stepped out of the SUVs, D.F. activated his body camera. The video, the statement says, shows L.G. in uniform identifying himself as an ICE officer. Both agents approached Garcés’s vehicle, the document says. One of them, L.G., stood in front of the driver’s door near the side mirror, and the other by the side of the car.

“Garcés lowered the window slightly and spoke with L.G. in English. L.G. asked for Garcés’s driver’s license, which he handed over. D.F. took the license and confirmed that Garcés was the person they were looking for,” the filing reads. The agents asked him to turn off the car and get out: “Garcés ignored the request to exit the vehicle and began a conversation in Spanish with L.G. about moving and parking the car. The tone of the conversation was cordial and not aggressive.” They say he then rolled up the window and fled.

“L.G. tried to avoid contact with the car but Garces’ driver’s side-view mirror struck L.G. in his torso as it drove off,” the document says. The filing includes a sequence of three photos of the agent standing directly in front of the mirror. It says the agents returned to their SUVs, turned on emergency lights and the siren, and a “high-speed” pursuit began.

At this point there is a record from the immigration officer’s body camera, which he chose to turn off when he lost sight of his partner and of Garcés, and he called for help to stop the migrant.

At a news conference a day after the operation, Garcés called by phone and gave his version of events. The Venezuelan man said he had not intended to flee. The officer ordered him out of the vehicle and he only asked to be allowed to park his car in a lot rather than leave it stopped across the avenue. “He tells me, ‘No.’ I said, ‘I’m not going to leave it here,’” he said. When the Venezuelan made a U-turn to park it, the pursuit began. The agents rammed car into car. Then the shot was fired.

During a phone call between the agents, the complaint says, “L.G. told D.F. that Garcés had tried to run him over with his vehicle and that he had fired his gun.”

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