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Tanker Transits Through Strait Of Hormuz Approach Prewar Figures

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The Strait of Hormuz is far from what it was before Donald Trump blew everything out of the water: a maritime route that, although located in a hotspot region, allowed the free and safe passage of huge volumes of oil and gas from the Middle East. However, something has been moving in recent days, with many more tanker transits than over the previous several months. Some analysts even place crude shipments through the area around the levels seen before last spring and near those recorded during the short-lived ceasefire in June.

“The export arteries for Middle East oil are flowing again,” JP Morgan analysts said on Tuesday. Their estimates point to a rebound to about 17.5 million barrels a day, 98% of what transited the area before the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran.

Analysis firm Vortexa, meanwhile, puts crude shipments through the strait at a six-month high: 14 million barrels a day. Another investment bank, Goldman Sachs, estimates total crude exports from Persian Gulf countries — via Hormuz or alternative pipelines — at more than 23 million barrels a day in the last week, similar to the 2025 average.

Putting the numbers aside, the evidence points in one direction: fossil fuel flows through Hormuz have risen substantially, helping clear a maritime route that has kept the world on edge since late February and has triggered a major energy crisis. It is the second such crisis in less than five years, after the one caused in 2022 by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Yes, Middle Eastern oil exports are much higher, [but] at a great cost,” wrote Rory Johnston, an oil sector analyst and author of the newsletter CommodityContext, on Wednesday. “But no, we are not ‘back to normal,’ for God’s sake.”

Saudi crude

The clearest proof that something has changed in Hormuz is that, far from causing a sudden collapse in Saudi exports, the two-week closure of the only pipeline that allowed Riyadh to bypass the strait resulted in a relatively manageable drop in shipments. Largely because Riyadh managed to push more crude through the traditional route: from the port of Ras Tanura, in the Persian Gulf, toward Hormuz before reaching the Indian Ocean. There were also ship-to-ship transfers.

Goldman Sachs’s estimates, which include activity by the so-called phantom fleet (with transponders switched off), suggest Saudi exports more than doubled in September, to 11.6 million barrels a day — higher than last year’s average.

If confirmed in the coming days and weeks, the gradual revival of oil transit through Hormuz carries an important geostrategic implication: Iran risks losing its greatest leverage over the United States and, more broadly, the West, both stunned by the second hydrocarbon price crisis in less than five years.

The greatest risk now is that Tehran feels cornered and responds by intensifying military escalation, directing attacks not only at vessels transiting Hormuz, as so far, but also at the origins of their cargo: ports, pipelines and even oilfields in Gulf states. As in the worst days of the war. If that happens, such an escalation would reverberate strongly on prices and could even affect the global supply of crude and gas.

A fall in prices will have to wait

On the purely economic side, what stands out is that oil prices have barely reacted to the growing traffic in the Gulf. Partly because crude is not only a physical commodity — measurable in millions of barrels sold and transported every day worldwide — but also a financial asset whose trading moves over half a trillion dollars daily, roughly equivalent to the GDP of Colombia, Norway, or the United Arab Emirates. And investors, like Rory Johnston, remain unconvinced that global supply is returning to normal, even if flows through Hormuz are recovering.

Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel on Wednesday, although the futures contract for December delivery already trades slightly below that level. Investors continue to apply a risk premium to crude that keeps prices elevated. “We remain concerned about a potential new escalation that could damage more energy infrastructure,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in their client note.

For now, these green shoots in Hormuz are not making crude — nor the main end product refined from it, fuel — cheaper; the real bottleneck is in refined products caused by the war. In fact, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports from Gulf countries remain about half the 2025 average, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

The crude/refined fuels split has an explanation: several refineries were damaged and others have been underfed in recent months. While oil wells have largely escaped attacks, some refineries hit in the early days of the war have not fully resumed operations. In addition, transporting refined products is more costly and complex than moving crude. “They are more flammable than crude, so the physical risks when crossing the Strait of Hormuz are greater for product tankers than for crude tankers,” Goldman Sachs explains.

Pending consolidation, this nascent rebound in energy flows still looks largely cyclical rather than structural. But it appears to support the view that the U.S. Navy is exercising considerably more effective control of the area, allowing oil and LNG tankers to take the Oman route to leave the zone outside the reach of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

All the same, the risks remain very high. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported three incidents in recent hours involving ships carrying fossil fuels — two oil tankers and one LNG carrier — that were struck by projectiles. If confirmed, it would be the most attacks recorded in a single day since July. Two opposing realities, face to face: Hormuz may be more porous, but not safer. “The increase in crossings should not be confused with greater safety; rather, it reflects the sector’s growing capacity to operate under sustained risk,” JP Morgan analysts concluded.

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Antonio Guterres

Rebeca Grynspan Mantiene El Liderazgo En La Votación Para La Jefatura De La ONU Pero Aumentan Los Países Que La Rechazan

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El camino para encontrar un nuevo liderazgo de la ONU parece complicarse. La quinta votación informal del Consejo de Seguridad refleja un panorama difícil de leer, solo apto para los apasionados de analizar los entresijos de Naciones Unidas. La votación arroja un dato incontrovertible: la costarricense Rebeca Grynspan continúa en cabeza. Y además se aleja de sus inmediatos seguidores. Pero eso no quiere decir que el camino para sustituir a António Guterres ya esté expedito, ya que la experimentada política de Costa Rica acumula también un importante volumen de rechazos.

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Arnold Schwarzenegger

The Electoral Cost Of Trump’s Remarks That Iran Could ‘take Out’ LA Or San Diego

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President Donald Trump said it without weighing the possible electoral consequences for Republican candidates in California, less than a month before the midterm elections. Far from generating laughter or support for his war with Iran, his comments have raised concern and could affect the vote in a state governed by Democrats since 2011. During a rally in Nebraska on Monday, the president said Iran could “take out” Los Angeles or San Diego, two of the largest cities in the United States, calling it a “small price” to pay to eliminate what he says is the threat posed by the Iranian regime.

As part of his campaign tour across the country to support Republican candidates —generally in places where a Republican victory is more likely, since in tighter races Trump could be more a liability than a boost— the president moved awkwardly from urging turnout in the midterms on November 3 to talking about war with Iran and the “small price” it represents “to keep the world safe.”

Polls show it will be difficult for Republicans to hold narrow control of both chambers of Congress, and Trump’s Nebraska speech seems unlikely to help them. “They could take out a city. Let them take — Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego. That’s — this is a very small price to pay, and it’s going to be over with very soon. It’s essentially almost over with,” Trump said of a war that has stretched for more than seven months without any clear signs of ending.

There is a fairly recent precedent for the threat Iran could pose to California. In March, Californians were alarmed after a report from the Federal Bureau of Investigation warned that the Iranian regime might be planning drone attacks against the state in retaliation for U.S. military actions on its territory. Both the federal government and Governor Gavin Newsom then said there was no imminent threat to California.

Trump’s recent remarks also appeared framed by rising oil prices and, consequently, higher gasoline and other fuel costs in the United States, driven by the conflict in a region crucial to crude transport. That “small price” Californians are paying, in particular, is actually very high: this week a gallon of gasoline sold for $6.37 —and in some places even $9— about 46% above the national average, according to AAA. The difficult economic situation, with the cost of living, health insurance and housing at the forefront, is voters’ top concern, according to various polls.

Ballots began arriving this week in the mailboxes of thousands of Californians.

“It complicates their campaigns”

Miguel Tinker Salas, professor emeritus of History and Chicano Studies at Pomona College east of Los Angeles, says Trump’s comments could have consequences for Republican candidates in California before the polls close. “It complicates their campaigns; it makes the political landscape harder for them,” the professor says.

In California, Republican hopefuls are running for governor, the state attorney general’s office and other key positions, as well as seats in the House of Representatives. For many of them it is an uphill race in a Democratic stronghold, and even more so after the recent redistricting pushed by Governor Gavin Newsom to favor his party’s contenders, part of a nationwide battle. In that context, Tinker Salas believes Trump’s Nebraska remarks will end up hurting his own candidates.

One of those most affected may be Steve Hilton, a British-born former political strategist for David Cameron’s Conservative Party before Brexit who became a conservative commentator on Fox News, and is now the Republican candidate for governor. So far, Hilton has not commented on the controversy. Since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office after two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2011, no other Republican has won that post.

“California hasn’t elected a Republican in many years. There was an opening with Hilton, in a way, because he was not only the opposition candidate but the anti-establishment opponent who had committed many failures. But as the campaign has unfolded he has lost support, and his closeness to Trump increases that loss,” Tinker Salas said.

Trump is very present in the race. He has officially endorsed Hilton, and a network of donors aligned with the president, from various parts of the country, continues to funnel resources into his campaign. The president’s strategy is not limited to the governorship: at the Republican convention ahead of the midterms he even said people should vote as if his name were on the ballot and promised a $5,000 payment to all American adults if his party retains control of the House of Representatives.

Hilton’s disadvantage

Hilton has fallen behind in the polls. One of the most recent surveys, conducted by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, shows the Democratic candidate, Xavier Becerra, has increased his lead: 58% of respondents said they would vote for him, compared with 33% who favored the Republican. The gap widened by seven percentage points from the previous measurement.

In that same poll, about 44% said their main concern was “reducing the cost of living,” while 37% identified “fighting the policies of the Trump administration” as their priority. Not even polls commissioned by Hilton’s campaign work in his favor. The latest, published this week, puts Becerra six points ahead: 45.7% to Hilton’s 40.1%.

Becerra has joined Democratic leaders —including Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria— in criticizing Trump’s remarks. “Thirteen million Californians call LA and San Diego counties home. Their lives are not a ‘small price to pay’ or a punchline for Donald Trump,” he wrote Monday night on his X account. Responses to the post were divided.

Thirteen million Californians call LA and San Diego counties home. Their lives are not a “small price to pay” or a punchline for Donald Trump. https://t.co/TG23f6b5XF

— Xavier Becerra (@XavierBecerra) October 6, 2026

Some users commented under the post that California Republicans who once voted for Trump may now be “disappointed.” Others downplayed the president’s words, calling them a “joke,” and argued that a doctored video of the Nebraska rally was being spread. The latter reflects voters’ sometimes selective distrust of what they see on social media.

The president’s remarks also drew no laughter from Governor Gavin Newsom, one of the Democrats who most often confronts him and who is about to leave office after two consecutive terms, and is being discussed as a possible presidential candidate in 2028. Newsom called the president “deranged and dangerous” and said he had even ordered the State Threat Assessment Center to actively monitor the situation “in case foreign actors interpret the president’s remarks as an invitation to attack California.”

Professor Tinker Salas was also troubled by the crowd’s reaction during Trump’s rally. After the president said Iran “could take out a city,” some attendees responded with a “yesss.” Others applauded when he added that the targets could be Los Angeles or San Diego.

“It reflects a cynical attitude, it reflects information manipulation. But what is most worrying is how the message was received by the people behind Trump,” the professor says. “You can expect any foolishness from Trump, but people applauded. We are in a critical situation regarding the social fabric of this country.”

Reported by Patricia Vélez Santiago.

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Abelardo de la Espriella

US Moves Spy Drones From Africa To Colombia And Ecuador To Combat Drug Trafficking

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The United States has sent spy drones to Colombia and Ecuador to support both countries’ actions against organized crime, two military sources told the newspaper The New York Times. The aircraft involved are an undetermined number of MQ-9 Reapers that had been stationed in Africa. Although their primary roles are linked to surveillance, they can be used in offensive operations. The arrival of these aircraft, announced by Colombia in August, cements Washington’s growing active role in the operations of the armed forces of the two South American countries, which in recent months have agreed to begin “joint operations.”

It is “a significant signal from the administration that we are getting serious,” said retired diplomat Francisco Palmieri, former chargé d’affaires in Bogotá, in remarks to the Times. “As a political symbol, it’s unmistakable. It’s a sign of a commitment to expand both the level and type of cooperation,” he added. Days earlier, General Francis Donovan had said Washington intends to expand the strikes it began last year against small boats in the Caribbean and Pacific that it identified as drug traffickers to the wider continent.

MQ-9 Reapers provide ground reconnaissance and surveillance activities without exposing military personnel, as happens with traditional combat aircraft. They can fly at altitudes of up to 15,000 meters and are hard to detect. They can also carry precision munitions. “They cannot cause large-scale destruction in quantitative terms, but they can qualitatively: they are indispensable for destroying very selective targets, such as people,” Félix Arteaga, an international security expert at Spain’s Royal Elcano Institute, told this newspaper a few years ago. They have a 20-meter wingspan, are 11 meters long and 4 meters high. They cost around $30 million per unit.

MQ-9 Reapers are already used along the U.S.–Mexico border. According to reporting by The New York Times early last year, overflights to monitor cartel activities inside Mexican territory began during the administration of Joe Biden (2021–2025) and intensified after Donald Trump returned to power. The information collected, the U.S. paper reported then, was shared with Mexican authorities.

A few weeks ago, CNN reported that the United States would move “most” of the drones stationed in Africa to Latin America, but did not specify which countries would receive them. It noted that the decision worried some military commanders: activity by Islamic State and Al-Shabaab in Africa, now deprioritized, could increase with the withdrawal of the drones. Colombian media, meanwhile, reported in August an agreement had been reached with the United States to receive three MQ-9 Reapers and to purchase one of its own.

Quito and Bogotá have taken military cooperation with Washington to an unprecedented level. In March, U.S. Southern Command (SouthCom) announced the start of joint operations with Ecuador to confront “designated terrorist organizations.” The government of Daniel Noboa confirmed it but declined to provide further details, saying the information is classified. A few months later, after Abelardo de la Espriella came to power, Colombia followed the same path. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Bogotá had authorized him to start operations “to destroy terrorists and terrorist networks.” Colombia confirmed the announcement and said in a press statement that the decision reaffirms the country’s commitment to “a coordinated hemispheric response.”

Both countries have joined the Shield of the Americas, a coalition that Trump assembled with friendly governments to fight drug trafficking in the region. “These kinds of initiatives serve to defend our democracies in the region,” Colombia’s vice president José Manuel Restrepo said recently during a meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly. Meanwhile, attacks against alleged drug-smuggling boats in the Pacific and the Caribbean have continued — operations Bogotá denounced as extrajudicial executions during Gustavo Petro’s government (2022–2026). At least 230 people have already died, with no evidence that the strikes have been effective at reducing the flow of drugs into the United States.

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